On the role of public health in climate adaptation and mitigation planning

Transcription

1 On the role of public health in climate adaptation and mitigation planning Patrick L. Kinney Sc.D. Professor of Environmental Health Sciences Director, Columbia Climate and Health Program Mailman School of Public Health Columbia University June 18, 2014 MIT

2 Climate Change Planning Two Strategies: Mitigation Actions to reduce emissions (or enhance sinks) of greenhouse gases Adaptation Measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural & human systems against actual or expected climate change effects

3 How might public health science inform climate solutions? Quantify health co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions, leading to more effective and healthy policies Identify and prioritize adaptation actions, leading to more cost-effective policies STRATUS CONSULTING

4 Case Study 1: Co-benefits Estimate the effects of global air emissions on near-term: 1. Climate warming related to greenhouse gases 2. Cardiovascular deaths related to fine particles to help prioritize mitigation actions STRATUS CONSULTING

5 Global warming potential in 2020 due to year 2000 emissions from 13 different source sectors was estimated Methods: Modeling was carried out using the NASA GISS ModelE general circulation model See Unger et al., PNAS 2010 for details. Global warming in 2020 was computed and partitioned by emissions sector and by pollution species Results: Warming in 2020 was mainly driven by short-lived pollution species (e.g., black carbon and ozone) which also have important health effects Road transport, heating of buildings, and power generation were some of the source categories that had the greatest warming potential STRATUS CONSULTING

6 Global PM 2.5 modeling Surface concentrations of PM 2.5 due to each emission sector were estimated in μg/m 3 as the sum of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon and organic carbon aerosol deriving from that sector Annual average concentrations were computed and then linked geographically to population health data STRATUS CONSULTING

7 Global PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting from all 13 emissions sectors. Modeled using GISS global climate/chemistry model (on 4x5 degree grid) Sarma, Unger, Jack and Kinney, in prep

8 Health Impact Assessment A health impact function for cardiovascular mortality due to longterm PM 2.5 concentrations was derived from the American Cancer Society cohort study (Krewski et al., 2009). This function tells us the percent change in mortality that would occur for a 1 unit change in PM 2.5 concentration. Baseline cardiovascular mortality rates and populations were obtained at the country level from World Health Organization statistics. These were combined with the health impact function to compute number of deaths coming from each emissions sector on the 4 x 5 degree pollution grid

9 Global deaths vs. climate warming in ,400,000 1,200,000 Household Biofuel Burning Cardiovascular Mortality Burden 1,000, , , , ,000 Industry Biomass Burning Agricultural Waste Burning Household Fossil- Road Vehicles Fuel Burning Power Off-Rd Transport Livestock Shipping Agriculture Waste/LF Aviation Temperature Change (C)

10 Conclusions Household biofuel and on-road transport sectors have important influences on both health and climate in the near term future. Other emission sectors that contribute significantly to the current global health burden from fine particle pollution industry, biomass and agricultural burning tend to have a net cooling influence on the climate in the near term. Near-term policy strategies that have as their goal the maximization of both health and climate benefits might therefor be directed at emission sectors with high health and climate impacts.

11 Also, we can use public health Identify and prioritize adaptation actions, leading to more cost-effective policies. For example science to: Study historical exposure-response relationships for temperature and mortality and examine future scenarios of impacts at the local scale in New York STRATUS CONSULTING

12 Case Study 2: Adaptation needs STRATUS CONSULTING

13 Results: Exposure-Response Curve Warm and cold effects fitted separately: Lag 0 for warm effect Lag 2 for cold effect Assumed no effect for T range where 95% CI s crossed zero line

14 Future temperature modeling: Projected future Tmax using 32 combinations of global climate models and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Two IPCC emissions scenarios (A2 and B1) 16 Global Climate Models from IPCC 4 th assessment report Statistical downscaling to Central Park, NY station for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Baseline period is the 30 year climatological baseline of 1970 to 1999 (referred to here as 1980s )

15 Annual temperaturerelated deaths in baseline and future periods

16 Conclusions Daily mortality was associated with both cold and warm temperatures in an 18 year dataset from Manhattan In projecting future mortality impacts of changing temperatures, we saw small decreases in cold-related deaths and larger increases in heat-related deaths, yielding steady increases in net annual temperature-related deaths across decades Higher mortality impacts for higher GHG emissions scenario But, we held population, exposure-response, and baseline death rates constant

17 Overall Summary Global warming has been accelerating, and will continue for several more decades regardless of current actions Both adaptation and mitigation actions are needed to address the challenge of climate change Health impact assessment can help ensure that greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are targeted at emissions sectors that currently contribute in large amounts to health burdens, such as indoor biomass combustion and traffic emissions Health impact assessments of future climate and air pollution scenarios can help identify and prioritize adaptation strategies

18 Acknowledgements Kim Knowlton Cynthia Rosenzweig Christian Hogrefe Radley Horton Jeff Shaman Darby Jack Robin Whyatt Blair Wylie Steve Chillrud Daven Henze Ashlinn Quinn Kate Weinberger Elisaveta Petkova Tiantian Li Jaime Madrigano Ying Li Amrut Sarma Haruka Morita Nicole Ngo

19 Thank You