NEW YORK CITY S ROADMAP TO 80 X 50. July 18, 2017

Transcription

1 NEW YORK CITY S ROADMAP TO 80 X 50 July 18,

2 Sources and Magnitude of NYC s GHG Emissions Sources and Magnitude of NYC s GHG Emissions in 2015 Inventory of New York City Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2015, April

3 Our Growing, Thriving City Co-Benefits Air Quality Job Development Our Just and Equitable City Quality of Life Access Equity Health and Well Being Our Sustainable City Affordability Resiliency Innovation Our Resilient City 3

4 Achieving 80 x 50 requires a transition to a cleaner electric grid NYC Electric Grid Fuel Mix 30% of citywide GHG emissions come from power plants that generate electricity within and outside the city 24 in-city plants serve NYC and are capable of meeting 80% of the city s peak demand On an annual basis the in-city plants provide ~50% of the electricity consumed in the city 4 New York City s Roadmap to 80x50, September 2016

5 Model Structure Inputs Generation Characteristics Operating capacity Commission/retire dates Operating costs VOM/FOM Availability factors Emissions characteristics Capital cost (for new entries) Xpand Outputs Generation Characteristics Generation additions by year Generation retirements by year Wholesale electricity prices Reserve margins Fuel Supply Fuel price forecasts Range of fuel types Demand Regional demand forecasts Regional load shapes Reserve margins Transmission Characteristics Regional flow limits Wheeling costs Environmental Policies GHG and emission caps RPS policies Least cost dispatch and planning Fuel Supply Demand Reserve margins Transmission Characteristics Environmental Policies Generation by fuel type by year Regional flows Emissions Emission prices Renewable Energy Generation 5

6 Modeled Geography We modeled New York and surrounding regions to capture changes in generation capacities, imports, regional policies and emission profiles from City and imports. These regions include: New York, New England, PJM, Ontario and Quebec 6

7 Modeled Geography We modeled New York as four regions: Zones A-F, G-I, J and K. 7

8 Transfer Limits Hydro Quebec PJM W IESO 1,600 1,850 NY to PJM Constraint: 2,225 PJM to NY Constraint: 3,350 1,050 2,000 1,450 PJM E 1,790 1,000 NYISO A F 800 3,599 PJM East to G K Constraint: 3, NEISO to NY and NY to NEISO Constraint: 1,600 5,075 1,000 1,975 NYISO G I 1, ,450 NYISO J G I to J K imports: 5, NEISO 1, NYISO K Zone K imports: 1, Model uses a pipes and bubbles constraint to limit transfer between regions All model runs include 1000 MW capacity AC Transmission project between NYISO A-F and G-I (not shown, 2019 in-service date) 8 Assumptions for increased transmission in Alternate Reference Cases: Additional capacity b/w Hydro Quebec and NYISO A-F Additional capacity b/w NYISO G-I and J

9 Under business as usual, GHG reductions driven by changes to the makeup of the electric grid NYC Electric Grid Mix (Business as Usual) Renewables become more economic with time Natural gas replaces nuclear Natural gas plants become more efficient 9 New York City s Roadmap to 80x50, September 2016

10 Electricity alternate reference cases Generation Capacity Reference High Carbon Intensity Grid Low Carbon Intensity Grid Strong EE Adoption Early Nuclear Retirement At Risk Nuclear Retirement Wind Capital Cost PV Capital Cost Fuel Prices Natural Gas Prices Demand Forecast Energy Growth Peak Growth Regional Transmission Capacity New Import Transmission In-State Transmission Environmental Policies RGGI REV BAU Closer to 80 X 50 Further from 80 X 50 10

11 Other sectors will rely on a low-carbon grid to achieve 80 x 50 Future Carbon Intensity of the Electric Grid 2050 Electric Grid Fuel Mix by Scenario Low carbon intensity grid New York City s Roadmap to 80x50, September 2016 Key Low Carbon Intensity Grid Assumptions New renewables are more economic than natural gas generation Increased transmission within NYCA and between NYISO A-F and Canada Indian Point remains active through 2050 OSW was available but was not selected in any of the Alternate Reference Case runs 11

12 80 x 50 will require aggressive action across sectors 80x50 path relies upon a grid with >70% renewable content Requires significant increase in transmission capacity to Zone J Urgency driven by age of in-city generators and the lead-times associated with transmission projects Helps achieve GHG goals but also improves local air quality and public health as well as reliability/resiliency of power supply New York City s Roadmap to 80x50, September x50 Path Modified Low-Carbon Intensity Grid MW hydro by MW OSW by Deep Energy Retrofits (40-60% reductions) % electrification of heating/hot water systems + 7 GW in-city solar PV 12

13 Anthony J. Fiore Deputy Commissioner, Energy Mgmt NYC Dept. of Citywide Administrative Services Benjamin Mandel Renewable Energy Policy Advisor NYC Mayor s Office of Sustainability bmandel@cityhall.nyc.gov Ke Wei Senior Policy Advisor for Energy NYC Mayor s Office of Recovery and Resiliency kwei@cityhall.nyc.gov 13