Output 3.1 Providing information on project activities and results to other cotton-producing countries in Africa Activity Activity 3.1.

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1 Chapter 4. Component C: Evaluaton of the fnancal vablty of the process, tranng, dssemnaton of project results through presentatons, publcatons and technology transfer On the bass of relevant fnancal and producton data obtaned n the course of the project, a comprehensve fnancal analyss was prepared n the thrd project year. Ths analyss establshed the fnancal and economc vablty of the processes usng the Sudan stuaton as a practcal case study. A model for makng projectons of benefts to other countres wshng to adopt the processes s ncluded n the report. The rsks are also clearly stated. The achevements of the project was documented n regular progress reportng to the ICAC and the Fund, but above all n techncal reports were presented at relevant meetngs organzed n the framework of global ICAC meetngs or n workshops and semnars organzed by other organzatons (e.g,. the Afrcan Cotton Research Network-ACREN, the Conference des Responsables de la Recherche Agronomque Afrcan-CORAF and the Interregonal Cooperatve Research Network on Cotton for the Medterranean and Mddle East Regons). In order to provde hands-on exposure to the methods used n the project, be t wth regard to actvtes related to the determnaton of the levels of stckness n cotton bales or to the processng of stcky cotton, a provson s made n the project budget for a tranng/vstng programme n the thrd project year for techncans from nterested developng countres. The modalty for the programme as well as the determnaton of the number of partcpants were determned by the PEA and the Supervsory Body n close consultaton wth the Fund n the course of the second project year. A provson has also been made for an nternatonal workshop to be organzed n Sudan towards the end of the project for dssemnaton of the project results. Gven the close lnk wth the earler mentoned Fund-fnanced Integrated Pest Management project n Israel, Egypt, Ethopa and Zmbabwe, representatves from that project are envsaged to partcpate n the presentatons and dscussons of the results of the present project where consdered relevant. In preparaton for ths workshop, a handbook descrbng the project results as well as the methodologes and technques used n the project wll be publshed n three languages (Englsh, French and Spansh) and be made avalable, at a prce to be determned, to commercal and non-commercal operators. Ths publcaton s the property of the Fund. Output 3.1 Provdng nformaton on project actvtes and results to other cotton-producng countres n Afrca Actvty Dssemnaton of nformaton on project actvtes and results annually through the network of cotton-producng countres n Afrca. Actvty Dssemnaton of nformaton on project actvtes and results annually through the network of cotton-producng countres through the Medterranean network. Output 3.2 Provdng nformaton on project actvtes and results to cotton-producng countres outsde of Afrca Actvty Annual workshop on efforts to combat stckness and ts effects conducted as a part of the meetng of the Commttee on Cotton Producton Research of the Internatonal Cotton Advsory Commttee, held at Plenary Meetngs, and attended by researchers from member countres and observers. Page 73

2 Actvty Organzaton of a tranng/vstors programme for groups of selected staff of nterested organzatons. Actvty Organzaton of an nternatonal workshop to dssemnate the results of the project. Output 3.3 Fnancal Analyss Report Actvty Throughout the duraton of the project, data wll be collected related to present producton, gradng, prcng and marketng of cotton as well as wth regard to the use and cost of the new methodology resultng n dfferent qualtes of cotton n as far as related to stckness levels. Actvty Based on the data gathered through Actvty 3.3.1, an all nclusve fnancal and detaled analyss wll be prepared by the PEA, possbly n cooperaton wth an nternatonal specalst n ths feld, on the vablty n economc/fnancal terms of the stckness detecton process and the development and applcaton of the after-gnnng methods to enable processng of stcky cotton. Output 3.4 Publcaton of a handbook for commercal utlzaton of project fndngs. Actvty In preparaton for the workshop n Actvty 3.2.3, a handbook wll be prepared n Englsh regardng procedures necessary for the separaton of stcky cotton from non-stcky cotton. Actvty The handbook wll be translated nto French and Spansh languages and be made avalable to all member countres of the Fund and the ICAC. The handbook wll also be made avalable to all cotton-producng countres and organzatons through the ICAC secretarat. The prce of the book wll be determned by the Fund, n close consultaton wth the PEA and the ICAC. Page 74

3 4.1. Economc vablty of qualtatvely gradng cotton bales for stckness measured by H2SD Current stuaton n Sudan In Sudan, approxmately famles cropped cotton on hectares n the 1996/1997 season. Irrgated crops account for 90% of fber producton (approxmately tons annually). Two prncpal types of cotton are cropped: Acala: medum fber, G. hrsutum; Barakat: extra long fber, G. barbadense. Acala englobes several cotton varetes, the prncpal beng Barac. Other varetes are produced n low quanttes: Shambat for long fber, Albar and Acran for short fber. Long and short fbers corresponded to only 1790 tons n 1996/1997,.e. less than 2% of total producton. The growng area, wth farly dspersed plots, s stuated between 10 and 16 North, and 30 and 36 East. Cotton growng areas are dvded nto blocks coverng an average of 4000 ha. Average seedcotton yeld s nearly 1 ton/ha,.e. 330 kg of fber/ha. Two thrds of the seed-cotton produced s roller gnned. Gnnng output corresponds to 34 to 35% for Acala and 32 to 33% for Barakat. The seedcotton arrves at the gnnng mlls n 315 lbs bags. Bags contanng hghly stcky cotton, detectable wth the naked eye, are removed. The others are sorted usng a manly vsual gradng system nto 3 seed-cotton groups. Bags of the same grade are mxed regardless of ther geographcal orgn and are gnned together. A mll contanng 94 roller gns produces 1000 bales / 24 hours, wth each bale weghng 191 kg (420 lbs). Four bales out of every 100 n each batch are graded vsually and manually, and a sngle bale s tested by HVI. The nformaton gven above can be used to estmate needs n terms of materals, laboratores, mantenance efforts, ar condtonng, etc. It s noteworthy that these estmates are made on the bass of the hypothess of a 'poltcal' decson beng made to grade the entre bale producton for stckness. At the end of the gradng operaton, the bales would then be grouped together nto batches of "homogeneous" stckness. Ths paper attempts to evaluate the fnancal effect of ths gradng operaton. It does not take account of the fact that Sudanese cotton has a reputaton for beng stcky snce ths mage should mprove thanks to the gradng work whch wll thus have an mpact on cotton sale prce Estmatng the cost of H2SD gradng n Sudan The cost of H2SD gradng has been estmated n the Unted States to be US$1.5 per bale (Watson, 1998). Ths estmaton, based on gradng usng two H2SD measurements per bale, ncludes deprecaton of the nstruments, labor and the cost of the dfferent consumables and spare parts. The approach envsaged by the author s doubtless nspred by HVI gradng of producton snce ths has become well establshed n the Unted States over the last few years. Page 75

4 H2SD gradng condtons The cost of H2SD gradng may be dfferent n Sudan prmarly because of the dfference n labor costs. A bale-by-bale gradng of the entre Sudanese producton may thus be evaluated under the followng condtons: annual producton: bales ( Acala and Barakat); samplng: 2 samples per bale; number of measurements: 1 H2SD measurement per sample; standard cottons: 2 reference cottons for daly verfcaton of the machnes; gradng duraton: 26 weeks (from January 1 to June 30 each season); workload: 2 teams workng 8 hours / day x 5 days a week; workforce: 2 techncans for each H2SD machne Number of H2SD machnes Wth the capacty to process 100 to 110 samples/hour, t s theoretcally possble for one H2SD machne to analyze 800 samples n one 8-hour shft. However, n vew of the tme requred to analyze the standard cottons, breaks taken by the workforce and the dfferent handlng operatons requred for the sample, t s reasonable to lmt analyss rate to 600 samples,.e. 300 bales per machne and per 8- hour shft. The number of H2SD machnes necessary to grade bales n 26 weeks s thus: = = e. 7 H2SD machnes to grade bales n 26 weeks Reference cottons (standard cottons) A verfcaton of each H2SD machne s necessary at the start of each shft, then every two hours, to guarantee constant readngs. In the same manner as for HVI gradng, two reference cottons (standards) of guaranteed stckness (one slghtly stcky and the other very stcky) need to be analyzed. Fve verfcatons of the H2SD machnes are therefore made usng two standard cottons every 8 hours. Three or four grams of cotton are necessary for each H2SD stckness measurement. Wth two measurements per cotton, the total amount of standard cotton requred s gven by: 4 x 2 x 5 x 2 = 80 g of each standard cotton per day. When consderng the 26 weeks, ths mass ncreases to 10.4 kg/cotton,.e. a total of 20.8 kg for the two standard cottons Consumpton of alumnum fol For each stckness count, the H2SD nstrument consumes 30 cm of alumnum fol. The total number of counts (bale samples + standard cottons) s gven by: x = counts Consumpton of alumnum fol s gven by: 0.3 x ,.e. 302 km Workforce Wth two operators per machne, the number of techncans n each 8-hour shft s 2 x 7,.e. a total of 28 techncans. Wth one person n each team to manage and prepare the samples, the total number of techncans s 30 persons. Wth two team managers and two engneers, management personnel can be restrcted to 4 persons. Workforce composton s therefore: 30 techncans, Page 76

5 2 team managers, 2 engneers. Table 4-1 presents our cost estmates for a sngle gradng laboratory stuated at Wad Medan close to Gézra (the most mportant producton area n Sudan). Ths locaton would reduce the cost of sample collecton and also provdes pre-exstng nfrastructure n the form of an ARC laboratory (Stckness Testng Laboratory of ARC-Wad Medan). Thus, f a dfferent ste s chosen, certan estmatons would have to be modfed, notably the cost of samplng (shpment and labor) and that of the dfferent equpment already present n the ARC laboratory. The overall cost of gradng bales s thus estmated to be $ ,.e. US$1.51 per bale. Ths result s slghtly hgher than the estmaton made n the Unted States (US$1.25/bale). It should be noted that the Amercan estmaton does not detal the dfferent costs and may not take account of the cost of collectng the samples and those relatve to data processng. Here, the Unted States has already avalable a gradng system (HVI) whch ncludes the costs of the two supplementary operatons we took nto account n our estmaton n Table 4-1. Even f the estmated cost exceeded $1.5 per bale, the gradng would stll be cost-effectve because of the dscountng mposed on Sudanese cotton. It s mportant to note that the true cost per sample for analyss purposes only (wthout samplng and transportaton) s around US$ / sample. Table 4-1: Estmated cost of H2SD gradng, 2 counts/bale ( bales). Parameter Unt prce US $ Cost US $ Cost per bale US $ 7 H2SD machnes (deprecaton over 5 years) Alumnum fol consumed: 302 km (Prce n France, exclusve of VAT ) Mantenance and spare parts ar-condtonng system (deprecaton over 10 years) Energy consumed ( kwh) (Source: SCC) Workforce wages (6 months): 30 techncans team managers engneers 1100 Samplng (shpment, handlng) (Source: SCC) Data processng and communcatons (computer, tel., fax, etc.) Standard cottons (21 kg) Mscellaneous (approx. 2.7% of subtotal) Total Cost-effectveness of gradng H2SD gradng becomes cost-effectve f the dfference between sales wth and wthout gradng s greater than or equal to ts cost. To formula to calculate the gan at the end of ths operaton s: Gan = CA CA CC = n I = 1 Classfcaton X P NB + 1 D ' ( 1 X )( 1 D ) 1 CC Wth the gven type or class or grade of cotton. P = Actual prce of the bale. (Equaton 4-1) Page 77

6 NB = Number of bales. = bale qualty (Acala, Barakat, ). X = proporton of non stcky bales. D = Actual dscount (wthout classfcaton). D = Expected dscount on stcky bales. CC bale = Classfcaton cost per bale. How does ths gan vary as a functon of the X proportons and the dscounts D and D? Unfortunately, n vew of the number of varables, t s mpossble to devse a graphcal response to ths queston. We therefore smplfed the expresson for a tabular presentaton. To do ths, we reasoned by type of cotton sold snce the number of bales per type sold s suffcently hgh for us to calculate precsely the gan produced by gradng. The gan by type of cotton s gven by: X ' Gan = P NB + ( 1 X )( 1 D ) 1 NB CCBalle D 1 (Equaton 4-2) 4.2. Numercal applcaton The gan can be evaluated for total producton of bales made up of n = 2 types of cotton: 1: Acala (80% of total producton), NB 1 = bales 2: Barakat (20% of total producton), NB 2 = bales. The prce of a bale (420 lbs) can be set at the annual average lsted n Cotton Outlook for 1998/99,.e.: $0.5714/lb for Acala and $0.7574/lb for Barakat. On the bass of $1.51/bale, (estmaton gven n Table 4-1), we evaluated the gan provded by gradng for dfferent proportons of non stcky X and the deprecaton of those graded as stcky D, and ths for several D currently mposed on all Sudanese producton n the absence of gradng. Table 4-1 and Table 4-2 present the gans resultng from gradng Acala and Barakat bales for dfferent proportons X and deprecaton D f current dscountng s consdered to be D = 7%. Bale gradng s not always ganful snce ths s hghly dependent upon the proporton graded as non stcky and the dscountng appled to the bales graded as stcky. As an example, f the proporton of non stcky bales n Acala producton s X = 30% and the dscountng mposed n the absence of gradng s D = 7%, gradng these Acala bales wll lead to a loss even f the dscountng of the 70% of bales graded as stcky s as low as D = 3% (losses at D = 3% amount to $ ). Table 4-1: The gan (mllons of US$) resultng from gradng Acala bales nto two categores, stcky and non stcky, for dfferent proportons of non stcky bales X and dscountng of the stcky bales D. Dscountng n the absence of gradng D = 7% and gradng cost CC Bale = $1.51/bale. D X% Page 78

7 Table 4-2: The gan (mllons of US$) resultng from gradng Barakat bales nto two categores, stcky and non stcky, for dfferent proportons of non stcky bales X and dscountng of the stcky bales D. Dscountng n the absence of gradng D = 7% and gradng cost CC Bale = $1.51/bale. D X% It s essental, for a more precse evaluaton of gradng cost-effectveness, to establsh not only the proporton of non stcky bales and the dscountng mposed n the absence of gradng, but also the deprecaton expected for the bales graded as stcky. The dscount currently mposed on Sudanese cotton s deduced from market data and s estmated by SCC to be 7 to 12% of the sellng prce. Evaluatng the expected deprecaton of bales graded as stcky s more dffcult. Ths depends on several factors, partcularly economc effects, and should be evaluated on the bass of objectve crtera that take account of the damage caused by stcky cotton. Page 79

8 4.3. Concluson The results obtaned show clearly the feasblty of a qualtatve stckness gradng system by H2SD (Hgh Speed Stckness Detector). The cost per sample s around US$ per sample to whch should be added the samplng and transportaton of samples to the laboratory. Once the stckness of each bale has been determned, the producer can fx a stckness threshold and thus guarantee that the stckness of the bales he supples s lower than the lmts demanded by hs clents. The effectveness of such a gradng procedure depends drectly on the wthn-bale stckness dstrbuton. Thus, t s essental to evaluate ths dstrbuton locally snce ths could vary from one producton zone to another. It s also possble to adapt ths procedure to H2SD gradng nto several stckness categores. To do ths, t would be suffcent to consder the upper lmt of each stckness grade as a crtcal threshold and proceed grade-by-grade n the same way as for gradng nto two categores, stcky and non stcky. The cost-effectveness of H2SD gradng was estmated for dfferent dscounts appled to the sellng prce of bales graded as stcky and as a functon of dfferent proportons of non stcky bales and the dscountng already mposed on cotton producton wth a reputaton of beng stcky. The gradng system would requre several H2SD machnes to process the entre producton of the country. Between-machne repeatablty should be evaluated to gan an apprecaton of the precson of the results and ther reproducblty. Studes concernng measurement repeatablty are ongong at CIRAD n partnershp wth several Amercan and European laboratores. A gradng system nto several stckness categores can be envsaged (e.g. non stcky, stcky, very stcky). Here, t has been observed that the stcker the cotton, the more damage t causes. Because of ths, the dscount mposed on the prce of stcky bales could be weghted for ther degree of stckness. Ths would oblge producers to grade the bales nto several categores. The methodology s the same as that developed for gradng nto two categores, only batch management would be dfferent, and above all more costly. Page 80

9 4.4. Dssemnaton of the fndngs The followng papers were publshed and presentatons made n the course of the project. Other members of the project may have also made presentatons of the data: Publcatons Fonteneau Tamme O., Gozé E.,. Frydrych R., Dréan J.-Y. Qualtatve Classfcaton of Cotton Stckness n H2SD Hgh Speed Stckness Detector. Accepted by Textle Research Journal. Fonteneau Tamme O., Frydrych R., Dréan J.-Y. Carded Spnnng of stcky cotton. Part 1: Stckness effects on productvty. Accepted by Textle Research Journal. Fonteneau Tamme O., Gourlot J.-P., Gozé E. Carded Spnnng of stcky cotton. Part 2: Stckness effects on qualty. Accepted by Textle Research Journal Presentatons Frydrych R., Tamme O., Gourlot J.-P., Gozé E., Le Blan T., Ahmed S. F., Abdn M. A, 2000, Stcky cotton effects on the carded spnnng process, Cotton Beltwde Conferences, San Antono (TX), USA, January 3rd to 10th, Chanselme J.-L., Fadlalla A.S., Goze E., Tamme O.F., Abdelatf A.H., 1998, Investgaton of wthn-bale varablty of stckness measurement, World Cotton Conference 2, Athens (Greece), September 6th to 13th, Gozé E., Fonteneau Tamme O., Frydrych R., Gourlot J-P., Dréan J-Y., Neweadomsk J-C., Lassus S., Goebel C. et Francalanc Ph., 1999, Avancement du Projet Soudan: Improve the Marketablty of the Cotton Produced n the Zones Affected by Stckness, Actes des Journées Coton du Crad, Montpeller, July 19th to 23th, 1999, pp Posters Tamme O., Gozé E., Frydrych R., Gourlot J-P., 1999, Dréan J.-Y., 1999, Classement des balles de coton selon leur potentel de collage mesuré par le Hgh Speed Stckness Detector (H2SD), Doctorales de l'unversté de Haute Alsace n Mulhouse (France), Ma Semnars PhD presentaton by Fonteneau Tamme O., June 26, Semnar Journée d nformaton sur la mesure et la lutte contre le collage des fbres de coton, June 26, 2000, Montpeller. Presentaton of the results of the Project n Sudan, end of 2000: J.-P. Gourlot went to Sudan on December 2000 to present the nformaton collected durng the project to 75 persons representng SCC, ARC, gnners, farmers. A report was presented, n 190 sldes, the results avalable at that tme. New nformaton that was not presented s contaned n ths report whch attempts to provde all the necessary scentfc background to understand our conclusons. Fnal semnar n July 2001 n Llle. Proceedngs wll be avalable on CD on request. Page 81

10 Other nformaton Stckness s a worldwde problem that has been the subject of consderable research. A non exhaustve lst of the groups currently workng on the topc s gven below: Internatonal Textle Manufacturers Federaton (ITMF) : Organzaton of a round test usng stckness measurement devces. Probable recommendaton of H2SD and/or other measurng devce(s) by ths Commttee. - Comté Européen de Normalsaton (CEN): Workng Group on standardzaton for SCT. Workng Group on standardzaton for H2SD. Workng Group on standardzaton for FCT/FQT. Page 82