Climate Change in South Asia. Leena Srivastava

Transcription

1 Climate Change in South Asia Leena Srivastava

2 The SAARC region: Socio Economic Profile Home to 23% of world population Fastest growing region Economy growing at 5.6% ( ) Member states registered a GDP growth rate of 6-9% - Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka One of the poorest region in the world Wide variations exist within the region Population for Maldives : 300,000 Population of India: More than a billion Economic growth and provision of affordable energy essential for poverty alleviation Sources: World Development Indicators 2007 (World Bank), ADB Key indicators 2007

3 Low per capita energy consumption World average 1688 kgoe kgoe Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Highest per capita consumption is less than half of the world average Region has one of the highest energy intensity Sources: Regional Energy Security for South Asia, SARI/Energy Program (2006), Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission, Government of India August 2006, Key World Energy Statistics 2007 IEA

4 Low per capita electricity consumption World average kwh/person kwh/capita Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Per capita electricity consumption much below the world average To reach the world average the region requires additional electricity capacity of around 63 GW Sources: Key Indicators 2007, Asian Development Bank; Key World Energy Statistics 2007, International Energy Agency 2007

5 Limited access to electricity percentage Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Wide variation exists across the member states Predominantly rural population, need for DDG options for promoting electricity access Sources: Regional Energy Security for South Asia SARI/Energy Program (2006)

6 Lack of access to clean energy: usage of traditional fuels Percentage NA World average 21.7% Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Countries still meet a large portion of their energy needs through traditional fuels Usage of traditional fuels has health impacts attached: Indoor air pollution 4 th largest heath risk Source: Human Development Report 2006, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2006, World Health Organization 2002

7 Growing Energy Demand Item Unit Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Electricity demand MUs Growth Rate % Oil demand Mtoe Growth rate % Natural gas demand Mtoe Growth rate % Nil Coal demand mtoe Growth rate % Maximum increase in demand for electricity Access to energy to facilitate poverty alleviation Energy demand to increase in tandem with the economic development All figures are for the year 2020 Source: Regional Energy Security for South Asia SARI/Energy Program (2006)

8 Climate change

9 Climate change is unequivocal IPCC AR4

10 Observed changes Global average temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover

11 The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes

12 Tropical cyclones have increased in intensity over the past 3 decades - Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: estimated deaths

13 Projected surface temperature changes ( relative to ) ( o C) Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.8ºC to 4ºC over the 21 st century and induce many changes that would be larger than those observed during the 20 th century

14 Key vulnerabilities in the Asia-Pacific region

15 Vulnerability of coastal deltas Extreme (> 1 million people potentially displaced by current sea-level trends by 2050) High ( to 1 million) Medium (500 to )

16 Human health Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal diseas primarily associated with floods and droughts Exacerbation of the abundance and toxicity of cholera due to increase in coastal water temperature Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts

17 Food production Crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while they could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by 2050 Future changes have the potential to substantially alter the abundance of fish populations in Asian waters The risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries

18 Water availability Glacier melt is projected to affect water resources in the next decades Rivers in the northern Indian plain could become seasonal in the near future Decreasing winter precipitation over the Indian subcontinent would imply less groundwater storage Saltwater intrusion in groundwater and estuaries is projected to be aggravated by sea-level rise. 120 million to 1.2 billion people will experience increased water stress in South and South East Asia by the 2020s

19 Adaptation and mitigation strategies

20 Key adaptation strategies Developing knowledge on impacts and vulnerabilities Integrating adaptation in wider policies (Ex. Integrated Coastal Zone Management) Improving disaster preparedness and management Improving health care systems Promoting good governance including responsible decision making and communities empowerment Poverty is the largest barrier to developing the capacity to cope and adapt

21 Role and limits of adaptation Societies have a long record of adapting to the impacts of weather and climate But climate change poses new risks that will require new investments in adaptive responses Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change

22 Stabilisation scenarios Global mean temp. increase (ºC) Stabilization level (ppm CO 2 - eq) Year CO 2 needs to peak

23 Increase in commercial energy needs an inevitability! Energy consumption per capita (KgoE) HDI index KgoE HDI Linear (HDI ) Large unmet demands High targets for economic growth Developmental goals and energy access to all

24 Primary Commercial Energy Need ( m to e ) Total Commercial Primary Energy Supply Year LG BAU REN NUC EFF HYB HG HHYB Increase in primary energy by times (BAU) 5.3 times (Hybrid) 11.8 times (High growth) 8.2 times (High growth hybrid) Energy consumption in hybrid scenario (8% GDP) is even less than that in low growth scenario (6.7% GDP)

25 Energy Security m t o e Fuel Imports in BAU HYB BAU HYB BAU HYB Coal Oil Gas Coal and oil imports decrease in the hybrid scenario due to clean coal technologies for power generation & efficiency improvements Import dependency of fuels is reduced from 80% in BAU scenario to 67% in hybrid scenario in 2031 Oil import dependency increases to 90% (BAU) & 84% (hybrid) in 2031 Coal import dependency increases to 78% (BAU) & 66% (hybrid) in 2031 Gas import dependency in 2031 remains at 67% in both BAU& hybrid scenarios

26 Resource Status Country Techno-economic feasible potential (MW) Potential harnessed (%) Bhutan Nepal Pakistan India 23,760 43,500 41,000 84,000 (at 60% LF) Large untapped potentials in all countries

27 Challenges in S Asian Countries Promoting equity in spreading the benefits that will arise from economic growth Implementing appropriate regulatory intervention to ensure adequate food supply in the context of increasing value of land Finding new development pathways wherein GHG emissions and the use of natural resources are minimised

28 Thank You

29 Population below Poverty line NA NA 25 Afghanis tan Banglades h Bhutan India Maldiv es Nepal Pakistan Percentage Sri Lanka Sources: Human Development Report 2007 (UNDP) Back