Climate Change: The India and UK contexts

Transcription

1 Climate Change: The India and UK contexts Dr. Suresh Rohilla Visiting Research Fellow Dr. Geraint Ellis Senior Lecturer School of Planning, Architecture and Civil Engineering Planning Queen s University, Belfast

2 Aims of the seminar To stimulate a UK-India cross-national understanding of the policy and research priorities for climate change action in the built environment and related disciplines; To stimulate UK-India exchanges amongst academic staff and students around the theme of climate change; To stimulate research collaboration between QUB and leading Indian researchers in the field of climate change responses. To act as a catalyst to further climate change events involving UK and Indian researchers.

3 Setting the context India and the UK are facing different impacts from climate change. The cultural, economic, institutional context add further complexity to these impacts. Both countries have key significance to the international forum for tackling climate change. Opportunities for research collaboration and debate.

4 India: Climate Projections Maximum temperature: increase by 2-4 C during 2050s May exceed 4 C over southern peninsula, northeast India and some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Bihar. Observed Temperature Rise

5 Annual mean Temp. over India Trend in temp. is similar to global temp. trend. Much faster during past 50 years

6 Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India by 2100 Rainfall and Temperature will increase over much of India. Rainfall will increase by 15% to 40% and temperature will increase 3 degree C to 6 degree C in different regions Prominently the monsoonal activity will be favoured over the semiarid Deccan Plateau of Maharashtra, the Western Ghats and North Eastern states In North West India the desert and semiarid area will become hotter and drier Sea coasts and mangroves will be inundated by sea water Melting of Himalayan glaciers

7 Risks to Ecosystems & People in India Increased Probability of Transboundary Conflicts Increased Incidence of Natural Calamities Increase in Human & Other Life form stress Himalayan Glacier melt Flows in Indus and Ganga at Risk Variability in monsoons affecting crop production Sea level rise - Relocation of population /Climate Refugees Erosion of coastal areas due to Sea Level rise and Extreme Weather

8 Key climate change predictions: UK Increases in mean daily minimum temperatures Little change in annual precipitation: Increases up to +33% in winter precipitation Decreases in summer participation of 40%. Relative humidity decreases by around 9% in summer Sea level increases of up to 80cm by 2080

9 10, 50 and 90% probability levels of changes to the average daily mean temperature (ºC) of the winter (upper) and summer (lower) by the 2080s, under the Medium emissions Scenario (DEFRA 2009)

10 Comparison of changes in seasonal mean temperature, winter (top) and summer (bottom), by the 2080s under High Emissions scenarios, from the UKCIP02 report (far left panels) and as projected in UKCP09 (10, 50 and 90% probability level).(defra 2009)

11 Key climate change impacts: UK Health Infrastructure Economy Species Agriculture

12 Urban centres: hot spots of CC

13

14 Common issues demanding urban and rural policy responses Increased pace of migration from rural to urban areas - different scale of impact in developed and developing countries Increases migration from more vulnerable areas to less vulnerable areas Increased pressure on infrastructure Water scarcity, water pollution, Air-quality impacts Flooding and submergence Heat waves Health problems

15 Seminar themes Climate Change and Governance Climate change and the built environment Climate change and the resource management

16 Developing a India-UK perspective Opportunities for research collaboration and debate. Student mobility Staff mobility