Towards a Green Economy: Can Europe Lead? Priorities for the Rio+20 Summit from a European Policy Perspective

Transcription

1 Towards a Green Economy: Can Europe Lead? Priorities for the Rio+20 Summit from a European Policy Perspective State of the World 2012 Symposium 25 April 2012, Copenhagen Oldag Caspar, Germanwatch Policy Officer Climate Change and International Relations caspar@germanwatch.org 1

2 founded in 1991 about 550 members appr. 40 staffs in Bonn and Berlin Observing, Analysing, Acting For North-South equity and the preservation of livelihoods. Key activities Ambition: Changing structures in the North to improve the living conditions in the South. Climate Change: Climate protection and Adaptation, Emission Trade, Sustainable Mobility, Sustainable Investment World Trade: Food security, agricultural trade and principles and guidelines for multinational companies Development: Information- and advocacy activities in development cooperation and global structural policy 2

3 Germanwatch started as a North-South-Initiative... not only on our maps, in our heads as well: The North is on top. Most times. 3

4 In the streets of Hopenhagen 4

5 Agenda Rio 20+ Credibility: EU Climate Policies as a Cornerstone for Moving Towards a Green Economy The EU Low Carbon Roadmap The 2020 CO2 Reduction Target The Energy Efficiency Directive Other Instruments Conclusions 5

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7 Two world population footprint scenarios Source: Footprintnetwork.org 7

8 Green Economy UNEP Definition: In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one which is low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive. Source: 8

9 The EU Low Carbon Roadmap 2050 Published by the European Commission 8 March 2011 Endorsement by the Council failed in June 2011 and March 2012 Goal of 80% domestic GHG reductions compared to 1990 (European Council, Oct 2009: overall EU goal of 80-95%) Cost-effective pathway: 2020 (25), 2030 (40%), 2040 (60%) 9

10 EU GHG Emissions Towards an 80% Reduction Source: Low Carbon Roadmap

11 The EU s targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020 and 2050 (low and high reduction) Greenhouse gas emissions in millionen tonnes of CO 2equivalent vs. 1990: Low reduction targets High reduction targets (bas e year (est. ) (-20 %) (-80 %) (-30 %) (-95 %) Source: Hans-Joachim Ziesing

12 2020 target of 20% = business as usual With full implementation of current policies, the EU is on track to achieve a 20% domestic reduction in 2020 below 1990 levels, and 30% in However, with current policies, only half of the 20% energy efficiency target would be met by If the EU delivers on its current policies, including its commitment to reach 20% renewables, and achieve 20% energy efficiency by 2020, this would enable the EU to outperform the current 20% emission reduction target and achieve a 25% reduction by EU Low Carbon Roadmap

13 A 2020-goal of 30%? Cost-effective pathway towards 2050 goal Strengthens the EU carbon market (ETS) Strengthens (green) investment and counteracts carbon lock-in Fills state budgets for anti-crisis measures, green subsidies and for meeting the international climate finance pledges Signal after Durban of a new impetus in international climate mitigation efforts Strengthens the new proto-alliance of AOSIS & LDCs with EU and therefore strengthens the EU and the other countries of this alliance in the negotiations. Other benefits: decreasing health costs; reducing dependence on oil price and fossil fuel imports 13

14 Cost-Effectiveness towards 2050 Source: Climate Action Network

15 A 2020-goal of 30%? Cost-effective pathway towards 2050 goal Strengthens the EU carbon market (ETS) Strengthens (green) investment and counteracts carbon lock-in Fills state budgets for anti-crisis measures, green subsidies and for meeting the international climate finance pledges Signal after Durban of a new impetus in international climate mitigation efforts Strengthens the new proto-alliance of AOSIS & LDCs with EU and therefore strengthens the EU and the other countries of this alliance in the negotiations. Other benefits: decreasing health costs; reducing dependence on oil price and fossil fuel imports 15

16 A 2020-goal of 30%? Cost-effective pathway towards 2050 goal Strengthens the EU carbon market (ETS) Strengthens (green) investment and counteracts carbon lock-in Fills state budgets for anti-crisis measures, green subsidies and for meeting the international climate finance pledges Signal after Durban of a new impetus in international climate mitigation efforts Strengthens the new proto-alliance of AOSIS & LDCs with EU and therefore strengthens the EU and the other countries of this alliance in the negotiations. Other benefits: decreasing health costs; reducing dependence on oil price and fossil fuel imports 16

17 A 2020-goal of 30%? Cost-effective pathway towards 2050 goal Strengthens the EU carbon market (ETS) Strengthens (green) investment and counteracts carbon lock-in Fills state budgets for anti-crisis measures, green subsidies and for meeting the international climate finance pledges Signal after Durban of a new impetus in international climate mitigation efforts Strengthens the new proto-alliance of AOSIS & LDCs with EU and therefore strengthens the EU and the other countries of this alliance in the negotiations. Other benefits: decreasing health costs; reducing dependence on oil price and fossil fuel imports 17

18 Comparison of State Budget Auctioning Revenues 30% vs. 20% Scenario ETS revenues , bln EUR Source: Öko-Institut

19 A 2020-goal of 30%? Cost-effective pathway towards 2050 goal Strengthens the EU carbon market (ETS) Strengthens (green) investment and counteracts carbon lock-in Fills state budgets for anti-crisis measures, green subsidies and for meeting the international climate finance pledges Signal after Durban of a new impetus in international climate mitigation efforts Strengthens the new proto-alliance of AOSIS & LDCs with EU and therefore strengthens the EU and the other countries of this alliance in the negotiations. Other benefits: decreasing health costs; reducing dependence on oil price and fossil fuel imports 19

20 A 2020-goal of 30%? Cost-effective pathway towards 2050 goal Strengthens the EU carbon market (ETS) Strengthens (green) investment and counteracts carbon lock-in Fills state budgets for anti-crisis measures, green subsidies and for meeting the international climate finance pledges Signal after Durban of a new impetus in international climate mitigation efforts Strengthens the new proto-alliance of AOSIS & LDCs with EU Other benefits: decreasing health costs; reducing dependence on oil price and fossil fuel imports 20

21 A 2020-goal of 30%? Cost-effective pathway towards 2050 goal Strengthens the EU carbon market (ETS) Strengthens (green) investment and counteracts carbon lock-in Fills state budgets for anti-crisis measures, green subsidies and for meeting the international climate finance pledges Signal after Durban of a new impetus in international climate mitigation efforts Strengthens the new proto-alliance of AOSIS & LDCs with EU and therefore strengthens the EU and the other countries of this alliance in the negotiations. Other benefits: decreasing health costs; reducing dependence on oil price and fossil fuel imports 21

22 Potential of Avoided Health Care Costs 22

23 The EU s Energy Import Dependency 23

24 2020 Goal and EU Low Carbon Roadmap: the Political Struggle Decisive moment under Danish EU Presidency Next Presidencies: Cyprus, Ireland, Lithuania. Emissions Trading System has to be fixed quickly Rift opens in the EU between Poland and the Western member states Now need to offer something to coal dependent countries European Councils in June crucial DK Presidency waiting for German government. Chancellor Merkel more aware of austerity as being not enough to bring the EU out of the crisis. 24

25 The Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) European Council agreed on 20% energy saving target in March 2007 No binding target set for energy efficiency unlike the EU s greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets. The EU is currently on track to ( ) not meet its energy efficiency target unless further efforts are made. (Low Carbon Roadmap 2011) Draft Directive on Energy Efficiency, released by the Commission in June 2011 supposed to close the savings gap Binding national targets? Commission proposal for the EED sets a 3% renovation obligation for buildings owned by public bodies; these represent less than 12% of the EU building stock. Commercial and residential buildings are excluded from the Commission s proposal. EED lowers ETS prices further need to adapt the ETS 25

26 Commission s EED Proposal: Direct and Avoided Costs EUROPEAN COMMISSION NON-PAPER ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY DIRECTIVE, APRIL

27 Level of Ambition of the Commission Proposal and the Council s Revised Text EUROPEAN COMMISSION NON-PAPER ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY DIRECTIVE, APRIL

28 Conclusions Set-aside of ETS emissions allowances needed now. Symbolic moment: proof of EU ability / political will to act on decarbonisation. Only Poland against set-aside. Upcoming discussions on further low carbon policies (e.g. Energy Roadmap 2050 & Transport Roadmap): Need to come to an overall agreement with Central and Eastern European Member States. Avoid split of Europe with internal anger. The economic crisis: Chance for embarking into the low carbon economy. Chance to switch to new path dependencies. Crucial role of Danish Presidency 28

29 Thank you for your attention! Oldag Caspar 29

30 EU compliance with its ETS cap in the reference scenario Source: Ziesing

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32 Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system (March 2011) By 2050, key goals will include: No more conventionally-fuelled cars in cities. 40% use of sustainable low carbon fuels in aviation; at least 40% cut in shipping emissions. A 50% shift of medium distance intercity passenger and freight journeys from road to rail and waterborne transport. All of which will contribute to a 60% cut in transport emissions by the middle of the century. 32

33 Jobs per sector 2010 Wind industry & other industrial sectors Source: EWEA

34 Shift happens! EU moves away from fossils Net new capacity = installations decommissioning in MW 34