Methodologies to Estimate Pathways

Transcription

1 Pathways toward low carbon societies in Asia by 2050 and contributions of Japan to their realization -Quantitative and qualitative assessment of LCS using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)- Methodologies to Estimate Pathways Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies COP19 Side Event at Japan Pavilion 13 November

2 AIM (Asia Pacific Integrated Model): A model for quantified LCS assessment AIM is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages Developed since 1990 First set of models focusing on Asia Pacific region to assess the strategies of low carbon development plan quantitatively 2

3 Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon Scenarios Communication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world 2007/05 Shiga Japan 2013/ /10 Kyoto Japan 2010/ / /10 Jilin China 2011/10 Shiga Japan 2009/10,2012/ /11 India 2010/02,2012/ / /03 Iskandar Putrajaya Malaysia Malaysia 2010/10,2012/ /09,2012/11 Putrajaya Bhopal Ahmedabad Malaysia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Bangladesh India India 2009/08,2012/ /02 Iskandar Cyberjaya Malaysia Malaysia 2013/ / / / /10 Malaysia Guangzhou Khon Kaen Korea China Cambodia Thailand 3

4 Methodology for LCS Action Plan Process Objectives/Outputs A B Information and Data Collection Identification of data sources preliminary data formation Synthesis and Preliminary Analysis Information collection for present practices and policies Data compilation Modeling and Analysis Development of storylines Quantification scenarios Developing LCS Action Plan Quantification of LCS action plans Development of roadmaps Identify emission reduction potentials and its co-benefit Estimate the cost of policy measures Provide incentives for use of innovative technologies Prioritize investments Promote behavioral and lifestyle changes Monitor performance

5 Structure of AIM model Mitigation Target, Climate Policy, Capacity building,... What are assessed and how? Emission Model ExSS Enduse CGE Account model Enduse model Economic model mid term target future society Other Models sequential dynamics Global Country Local/City dynamic optimization Modeling Population Transportation Residential Burden share carbon tax low carbon scenario Stock flow IPCC/WG3 GHG emissions Simple Climate Model long term vision AIM/Impact [Policy] feedback IPCC/integrated scenario Accounting AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) is an integrated assessment model to assess mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions and impact/adaptation to avoid severe climate change damages. temperature Impact/Adaptation Model Agriculture Water IPCC/WG2 Human health Global National/Local adaptation 5

6 Characteristics of Bottom up (sector optimization) models e.g. AIM/Enduse, AIM/AFOLU Key Features and Assumptions Choice of the most efficient mix of technologies to deliver services Rich collection of related data, abundant in detail on various technologies and countermeasures Perfect foresight simulates perfect competition among technologies and energies Strengths In case of energy sector, provide a comprehensive, coherent picture of the energy system (from primary energy to final energy and energy services use) Useful for assessing and identifying mitigation and efficiency potentials Enable assessment of supply and demandoriented policies to curb GHG emissions Weaknesses Neglect feedback effects of emission reduction policies on the rest of the economy Outputs Do not capture demand-price interactions Undervalue the transaction costs of mitigation policies Assume that markets react perfectly to price signals Inputs Structure of the AIM/End Use Model Energy technology refers to a device that provides a useful service by consuming energy Energy service refers to a measurable need that must be satisfied. From 1995, Japan Ministry of Environment used this model almost all times to evaluate the national reduction targets of Japan. Also, the case of China study conducted by Energy Research Institute, NDRC, PRC, and the National Thailand study by Thammasat University, Thailand caused hot, but positive discussions on Low Carbon Development within the nations. 6

7 As for the investment amount for global warming, half of the overall investment amount will be collected by 2020 and an amount equal to the investment amount will be collected by 2030 based on energy expenses that can be saved through technologies introduced. <Low-carbon investment amount and energy reduction expense> Cost (Trillion Yen) Japanese Case Study Relationship between low-carbon investment and energy reduction expense % reduction 78 20% reduction % reduction Additional investment ( total) Energy reduction expense ( total) Energy reduction expense ( total) Energy saving investment through 2020 Volume of reduction from energy saving technologies Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment = approx. 50 trillion yen (25% reduction) In the case of device with 10 year lifespan Energy reduction expense from energy saving investment = approx. 49 trillion yen (25% reduction)

8 GHG Emissions in 2050 (Peak CO 2 ) CO2 Emissions (Mt-CO2) Thailand Case Study BAU 2050LCP Scenario 48.3% Commercial Residential Transport Industrial GHG Mitigation by 2050 (Peak CO 2 ) Mitigation action Smart Buildings 52 Comfortable Houses 14 Effective transport 78 Green Industry Mitigation of CO2 (Mt-CO2) Mitigation SIIT-TU Source: Bundit Limmeechokchai et al.,

9 Indonesia Case Study SECTORS AND MODELS The covered sectors of the analysis are: Energy, AFOLU, Industrial and waste sectors. Three national level quantification models/tools are expected to use. They are: Extended Snapshot model (ExSS) and AFOLU-A: To design LCS vision and quantify the GHG reduction potentials; Bottom-up type end-use model (AIM/enduse, AFOLU-B): To identify effective technologies and necessary financial policies for Low Carbon Growth; CGE model (AIM/CGE[basic]): To assess the macroeconomic impacts of Low Carbon Growth policies Source: Rizaldi Boer, 2013

10 Indonesia Case Study Mitigation potential & cost land use change Mitigation potential [MtCO2/year] Cost[mil.US$/year] Mitigation potential Mitigation cost AGF PR WM PFF ENR RIL FP RSS RFS PLR PSR AGF PR WM PFF ENR RIL FP RSS RFS PLR PSR Mitigation potential [MtCO2/year] Cost[mil.US$/year] Mitigation potential 672MtCO2/year in GtCO2 in 10 years Mitigation cost 180 million US$/year in million US$ in 10 years RAN15 RAN14 RAN13 RAN12 RAN11 RAN10 RAN9 RAN8 RAN7 RAN6 RAN5 RAN4 RAN3 RAN2 RAN1 RAN15 RAN14 RAN13 RAN12 RAN11 RAN10 RAN9 RAN8 RAN7 RAN6 RAN5 RAN4 RAN3 RAN2 RAN1 Source: Rizaldi Boer, 2013

11 Characteristics of Top down (Computable General Equilibrium) models AIM/CGE Key Features and Assumptions Markets and the economy, as a whole, reach equilibrium, through price adjustments Markets work efficiently (no market barriers, hidden costs or information barriers) Able to analyze long-term resource allocation Strengths Able to estimate economy-wide costs of reduction policies, including trade effects Describes the details of economic interactions among sectors Able to assess long-term effects of GHG abatement policies on structural change in a coherent macro-setting Weaknesses Poor description of energy end uses and technologies Assume markets always work efficiently Cannot well reflect short-run economic adjustment costs Have a weak statistical basis (usually models are calibrated on a single-year basis) 7 Input coefficient on energy labor capital output coefficient on energy output coefficient on non-energy tech tech energy balance table in 2000 input tech V matrix in 2000 data in energy nonenergy value added 1 energy non energy economic growth production sector energy balance table (input) 12 input matrix 6 production and cost energy balance table (output) output matrix intermediate demand CO2 6 production and income 5 final demand sector 12 final cons 6 investment im port&export assumption output balance condition commodity supply commodity demand cap. goods input coefficient on non-energy 9 production social fixed capital stock matrix 11 capital stock Macroeconomic module account of inc. & expnd. 10 ext. trnsact. account capital profile in sector SNA tech&preference IO table in 2000 fixed capital formation matrix in 2000 tech 10 compensation of cap. goods CGE module Framework of AIM/CGE 1 production function 2 commodity market 3 capital market 4 labor market 5 calculation of GDE 6 expenditure and income in production sector 7 expenditure and income in household and government 8 assumption of import and export 9 fixed capital stock matrix 10 investment goods market 11 capital stock 12 CO 2 emissions Applied very often to evaluate national macro-economic impacts by GHG reduction targets of Japan. Also, we applied this model to many Asian countries, such as China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippine, Vietnam, Taiwan and Korea.

12 There is potential to reduce GHG emissions by 69% compared to the reference case in Asia The global emissions will become 1.8 times larger compared to the 2005 level and emissions in Asia will be doubled under the reference scenario. It is feasible to reduce GHG emissions in Asia by 69% by introducing ten actions and Others (CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from other than agriculture and livestock) appropriately compared to the reference scenario in GHG emissions (GtCO2e/year) Reductions by Action1: Urban Transport Action2: Interregional Transport Action3: Resources & Materials Action4: Buildings Action5: Biomass Action6: Energy System Action7: Agriculture and Livestock Action8: Forest & Landuse Others (CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from other than agriculture and livestock GHG Emissions in the world (Reference) the world (LCS) Asia (LCS)

13 Ten Actions toward Low Carbon Asia are examined Action 1 Urban Transport Structured Compact City Action 2 Interregional Transport Mainstreaming trains and water transportation Action 3 Resources & Materials Smart material use that realizes the full potential of resources Action 4 Buildings Smart buildings that utilize natural systems Action 5 Biomass Local production and local consumption of biomass Action 6 Energy System Low carbon energy system with local resources Action 7 Agriculture & Livestock Spread of high yields and low emission agricultural technologies Action 8 Sustainable forest management Action 9 Forest & Landuse Technology & Finance Technology and finance to facilitate achievement of LCS Action 10 Governance Transparent and Fair Governance that Supports LCS Asia

14 Actions 1 & 2: Transport Action 1: Hierarchically Connected Compact Cities Compact cities with well-connected hierarchical urban centers A seamless and hierarchical transport system Low carbon vehicles with efficient road-traffic systems Action 2: Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport Formulation of industrial corridors using a low carbon transport system Establishment tof an intermodal transport system incorporating rail and water Reduction of CO2 emissions from vehicles and aircraft Hierarchically Connected Compact City Central Business District

15 Action 3:Smart Ways to Use Material that Realize the Full Potential of Resources Production that dramatically reduces the use of resources Use of products in ways that extend their lifespan Development of systems for the reuse of resources Lower per capita stock (8 t/cap), the saturation level of France and the UK, would decrease the steel demand in China significantly to the lower level of 0.3 Gt in 2050 Consumption of Iron and steel Source: Mûller and Wang, 2009

16 Achieving 2 o C target is feasible Key Messages If all the actions proposed here are applied appropriately, 69% of the emissions in the Reference scenario can be reduced in Asia in This is in line with a global pathway with the 2oC target. Early actions are needed Whatever pathways are followed, GHG emissions should be reduced to zero in the long run to keep the climate at the corresponding level. More the actions are delayed, larger the reduction rates become and higher the stabilization level will be. GHG emissions need to be below zero to lower temperature. To realize negative emissions is very tough. There is a danger that socio-ecosystem will not be recovered even if GHG concentrations are returned to the lower level. Leapfrogging development in Asia leads to a Low Carbon Society Transition to low carbon emissions and low resource consumption societies, while simultaneously improving the economic standards of living is vital for sustainable development. Asia has many opportunities to realize an LCS by leapfrogging.

17 Thank you very much! The Low-Carbon Asia Research project is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-6) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan