GEF4400 The Earth System
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1 GEF4400 The Earth System Autumn GEF4400 The Earth System Prof. Dr. Jon Egill Kristjansson, Prof. Dr. Kirstin Krüger (UiO) kkruegergeo.uio.no Repetition for final exams 1
2 The Earth System exam preparation The big picture: The Earth System Cross links between the IPCC chapters Interactions between the Earth System Physical understanding Feedback loops Limitations and uncertainties
3 GEF4400 The Earth System Autumn IPCC Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean Background Introduction (Appendix 3A) Ocean temperature and heat content (Section 3.2) Salinity and fresh water content (Section 3.3) Ocean surface fluxes (Section 3.4) Ocean circulation (Section 3.6) Sea level change (Section 3.7) Executive Summary (Ch. 3) Rhein, M., et al., 2013: Observations: Ocean. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 3
4 Ocean observations Atmosphere ocean interaction Ocean temperature/heat content Salinity water cycle Ocean surface fluxes Ocean circulation Sea level Ocean acidification Anthropogenic carbon storage 4
5 Ocean changes since 1950s Summary Increase of anthropogenic CO 2, global mean sea level, upper ocean heat content, and high-low salinity regions. high confidence. 5
6 Summary +++: high confidence; ++: medium confidence; +: low confidence C ANT : Anthropogenic Carbon, NA: North Atlantic, SO: Southern Ocean AABW: Antarctic Bottom Water Carbonate ion: CO 3 2-6
7 GEF4400 The Earth System Autumn IPCC Chapter 6: Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles Background Introduction: Global Carbon Cycle (Section 6.1) Evolution of biogeochemical cycles since industrial era (Section 6.3) Variations in Carbon cycle before the fossil fuel era (Section 6.2) Projections of future carbon cycles (Section 6.4) Global Carbon Budget in 2014 Executive Summary (Ch. 6) Ciais, P., Cet al., 2013: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 7
8 Global Carbon Cycle Fluxes: PgC yr -1 Stocks: Pg C --pre-industrial (pre 1750) --industrial period ( ) 1 Petagram: 1Pg= kg= g 8
9 Decay of CO 2 excess turn over time scales 9
10 Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and partitioning
11 Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios Emissions are on track for ºC likely increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014 Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shown Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014
12 E: «compatible fossil fuel» emissions E: «anthropgenic» emissions
13 Ch. 1 IPCC, 2013
14 GEF4400 The Earth System Autumn IPCC Chapter 5: Informations from paleoclimate archives Introduction (Section 5.1) Pre-industrial perspective on radiative forcing factors (Section 5.2) Earth System Responses and Feedbacks (Section 5.3) Executive summary (Ch. 5) Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., 2013: Information from Paleoclimate Archives. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 15
15 Radiative forcing factors External forcing: Volcanic Forcing Solar Forcing Orbital Forcing Greenhouse gases, aerosols, dust: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, dust and aerosols 16
16 Climate archives Source Time (years) Climate variable 1. Instruments 250 temperature, pressure, wind, precipitation 2. Historical documents 1000 temperature, precipitation floods, strong winters, crop failure, wine quality, corn prices, coastal ice, etc. 3. Paleoclimate data tree rings temperature, precipitation varves temperature, precipitation ice cores (d 18 O) temperature pollen temperature, precipitation marine sediments fauna temperature, sea-ice coverage d 18 O continental ice volume dust (grain size) wind speed and direction 17
17 18 Past 800 ka LIG: Last Interglacial H: Holocene
18 GEF4400 The Earth System Autumn IPCC Chapter 12: Long- term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility Introduction and Background (from Chapter 10 and 11) Climate Model Ensembles and Uncertainties (Section 12.2) Projected Climate Change over the 21st Century (Section 12.4) Executice Summary (Ch. 12) Collins, M.,et al., 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press,. 19
19 Main drivers of climate change Chapter 1 IPCC (2013) 20
20 Recap IPCC forcings for GHG Meinshausen et al., 2011 Chapter 8 IPCC 2013 ( SRES: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (TAR, IPCC 2000) RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway 21
21 Global Mean Radiative Forcing between 1980 and RCP: Representive Concentration Pathway, ACCMIP: Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project
22 Scenario-Model-Climate Projection Chain Uncertainty propagates through the chain and results in a spread of ESM projections spread is assessing projection uncertainty. 23
23 GEF4400 The Earth System Autumn IPCC SPM: Summary for Policy Makers IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 24
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30 NH September sea ice extent 31
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32 GEF4400/9400 exam schedule Wednesday , 9:00-11:30 hr, CIENS, Glashallen 4 09:00-9:30: Susanne Foldvik 09:30-10:00: Charalampos Sarchosidis 10:00-10:30: Malte Ziemek 10:30-11:00: Hans Brenna 11:00-11:30: Christine Smith-Johnsen 33
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