Adding value to IRENA s REmap 2030 project using a European Electricity Model

Transcription

1 Adding value to IRENA s REmap 2030 project using a European Electricity Model Seán Collins, Deger Saygin, Paul Deane, Dolf Gielen, Brian Ó Gallachóir ESRI-UCC Workshop ESRI 7 th June 2016

2 Overview Adds value and tests results from REmap 2030 for electricity sector Done using a dedicated power system model (PLEXOS). Model simulates the operation of the EU power system at high temporal and technical resolution for a target year.

3 Objectives Test using a soft-linking methodology how plausible the REmap results are for the European power sector Added value of this analysis at a country level of: Renewable curtailment Pricing Flexibility of the power system to absorb variable renewables Congestion on interconnector lines

4 REmap 2030 Pathways for doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix based on the national plans + Over 60% of EU final electricity demand Developed through close IRENA-country cooperation Reference Case (government plans, e.g. NREAP of EU countries) REmap (realistic potential of RE beyond the Reference Case, estimated through country consultation) +IRENA (2016) REmap: Roadmap for A Renewable Energy Future. IRENA (2015) Renewable energy prospects: Germany, REmap 2030 analysis. IRENA (2015) Renewable energy prospects: Poland, REmap 2030 analysis.

5 Methodology -Detailed analysis of results using soft-linking techniques + -High temporal resolution (1 hr) -High technical detail -Ramping costs, flexibility metrics EU 28 Model- 3,000 generators, 22 PHES Units, 53 IC Lines + Deane, J.P., Chiodi, A., Gargiulo, M., Ó Gallachóir, B.P., Soft-linking of a power systems model to an energy systems model. Energy 42, Deane, J., Gracceva, F., Chiodi, A., Gargiulo, M., & Gallachóir, B. P. (2015). Assessing power system security. A framework and a multi model approach. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 73,

6 Input Data EU Hourly Dispatch Electricity Model 9 Country Portfolios based on REmap Substitution method replacing fossil fuelled generation with mainly VRES REmap Non- REmap 19 Country Portfolios based on 2015 PRIMES reference scenario modified with REmap methodology Increased penetration of VRES without substitution of conventional generation Network based on latest ENTSOE TYNDP Standard generation units for all modes of generation Carbon price of 30/Tonne

7 19 Non REmap Vs. 9 REmap VRES is 24% of model generation Non REmap country differences from reference case: 47% increase in Solar PV installed capacity 10% Increase of Wind Installed Capacity Total 32% increase in VRES capacity + PRIMES REF 2013 has 26.5% VRES Generation for EU28 VRES is 42% of model generation Differences from reference case: 42% Increase of Solar PV Installed Capacity 54% Increase of Wind Installed Capacity Total 48% increase in VRES capacity

8 Wholesale Electricity Prices Increased VRES causes systematic decrease in system pricing Renewables causing a shift in the merit order curve Affects revenues of conventional power plants

9 Wholesale Electricity Prices Changes Vs PRIMES REF 2013 Difference between REmap simulation results and simulation of PRIMES REF for 2030

10 Emissions Intensity Reduction in dispatchable capacity across REmap countries causes increased emissions in non-remap countries Coal efficiency 850 kg CO 2 /MWh.

11 Changes Vs PRIMES REF 2013 Difference between REmap simulation results and simulation of PRIMES REF for 2030 Emissions Intensity

12 % Natural Gas Generation Capacity Factors A market with reduced capacity factors Significant increase in price received by generators per MWh Overall profitability reduced CCGT Capacity Factors AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK PRIMES REF REmap

13 AT-CZ AT-DE AT-HU AT-IT AT-SI BE-DE BE-FR BE-NL BE-UK BG-GR CH-DE CH-FR CH-IT CZ-DE CZ-PL DE-FR DE-NL DE-PL DE-SE DK-NL DK-NO DK-SE ES-FR FR-ES FR-IE FR-IT FR-UK GR-IT HU-RO HU-SK IE-UK IT-SI LT-PL NI-UK NL-UK NO-DE NO-FI NO-NL NO-SE NO-UK PL-SE PL-SK Hours Congested Interconnector Congestion Limits the efficient movement of electricity particularly FR, DE and UK Raises concerns over the flexibility of the power systems within these member states with significantly increased VRES Implies an increase in infrastructure investment needs Interconnector congestion PRIMES REF REmap

14 Variable Renewable Curtailment Raises concerns regarding the ability of the power system to absorb the variable renewables Well interconnected states within the model run experiencing curtailment increased need for flexibility

15 Take home points REmap results enhanced with broader regional modelling of interconnected regions REmap EU power sector possible subject to careful substitution of dispatchable generation with VRES High VRES generation leads to increased importance of interconnection Reduction in dispatchable capacity of REmap countries causes increased emissions intensity in other MS

16 Thank You