Khosro Ashrafi (Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran)

Transcription

1 Khosro Ashrafi (Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran) Majid Shafiepour Motlagh (Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran) Hossein Tavakkoli (M.S. student, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran), 1

2 Preface Graduate Faculty of Environment of University of Tehran includes 4 department as: Department of Environmental Engineering Air pollution Water resources Solid waste management and soil pollution Water and Wastewater Sea and coastal area pollution Department of Environmental Education and Management Department of Environmental Design Department of Natural Disasters 2

3 Preface (cont ) I am working on air quality modeling Photochemical air quality models Dispersion models for industrial sources Challenges of Photochemical modeling in IRAN: Emission inventory for air pollutants especially for VOCs Transboundary and boundary conditions High performance computers Land-use data and parameters of urban areas Incompatible meteorological, topography and other data format for input of air quality models 3

4 Preface (cont ) Challenges of dispersion modeling of industrial sources There is no regulation to implement an standard dispersion model to demonstrate effects of existing or new industrial sources Incompatible meteorological, topographical and other data format for input of dispersion models such as AERMOD Shortage of sampling data from stacks and area sources of industries (VOCs, Heavy metals (e.g. Hg), Size distribution of PM, and etc.)

5 Outline Site description Sources of PM in the steel complex Research procedure PM dispersion modeling using AERMOD Land-use for modeling Meteorological data and its challenges Dispersion modeling Monitoring of PM and Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) analysis to determine the share of steel complex Model evaluation Results Conclusion 5

6 Site description Zarin-shahr city is located in the southwest of Isfahan city (latitude and longitude: 32, 24 N and 51, 22 E respectively) According to the 2011 census, Zarinshahr s population is 247,345 The region has rich agricultural lands and is one of the most important rice producers in the country The elevation of Zarin-shahr is about 1680 m above sea level N-NE is the predominant wind direction in Zarin-shahr region 6

7 Site description (cont ) Snapshot from near distance Snapshot from far distance 7

8 Sources of PM in the steel complex Main sources of PM in the steel complex are stack point sources 8

9 9

10 PM dispersion modeling using AERMOD (AERMOD, description of model formulation, U.S. EPA, 2004) 10

11 Land-use for modeling Conversion of region s digital topography data to DEM format appropriate for AERMAP A FORTRAN code have been developed for this purpose Other surface Characteristics 11

12 Meteorological data and its challenges Meteorological input data for AERMET are defined as: U.S. NWS surface data format U.S. NWS upper air data format On-site data Iran meteorological data are not compatible with U.S. NWS format We have developed a FORTRAN code to convert Iran meteorological data to on-site data format of AERMET 12

13 Meteorological data and its challenges (cont ) wind speed and direction, temperature, sky cover, station pressure, sea level pressure, dew-point temperature, relative humidity and Precipitation amount 13

14 Dispersion modeling The modeling domain has been defined as km 2 area with Cartesian grid spacing of 70 m Meteorological data for year 2010 have been provided by AERMET in *.sfc and *.pfl format Topography data of the region have been provided by AERMAP AERMOD has been run for 1, 3, 8 and 24 hours averaging time and also for monthly and annual averaging period 14

15 Location of monitoring stations

16 PM concentration in monitoring stations 16

17 CMB modeling The U.S. EPA CMB8.2 receptor model has been used to quantify the share of the steel plant Assumptions for applying CMB8.2 are: 1/15/2014 U.S.-Iran Symposium on Urban Air Pollution 17

18 CMB modeling (cont ) Weight and uncertainty of fitting sources for generating the pollutants Report of university of Isfahan based on EPA emission factors and stack monitoring 18

19 CMB modeling (cont ) Concentrations of the pollutants in ambient samples (ngr/m 3 ) 19

20 CMB modeling (cont ) Result of CMB8.2 20

21 Model evaluation performance evaluation of AERMOD according to the Guidelines on Model Evaluation recommended by EPA Parameter Proper value 21

22 Model evaluation (cont ) Results of total TSP monitoring due to Isfahan steel plant (µg/m 3 ) 22

23 Model evaluation (cont ) Results of modeling vs. observations 23

24 Model evaluation (cont ) Q-Q plot for 8-hr average 24

25 Results 25

26 Y(METER) CONCENTRATION( gr/m 3 ) Faculty of Environment Results (TSP) (TSP) Z=0 20 Z= CONCENTRATION( gr/m 3 ) Z= X(METER) Z=10 Concentration along Y axis (X=0, Z=0) Concentration along X axis (Y=0, Z=0) 26

27 Results The concentration of PM in the area next to the Isfahan steel plant exeeds 75 µg/m 3 Most parts of Zarin-Shahr city experience 5-15 µg/m 3 PM only from Isfahan steel complex (Other sources not included) Some agricultural areas in south and south west of the Isfahan steel plant are affected 1-10 µg/m 3 of PM only from Isfahan steel complex 27

28 Conclusion Dispersion modeling was conducted using AERMOD model based on emission data for Isfahan steel plant for the year Monitoring of PM at 11 stations were carried out and analyzed to obtain the share of Isfahan steel complex using the receptor model (CMB8.2) results of CMB model show that the share of steel complex in PM pollutant of the region is 27 percent. The evaluation of the model indicates that the model predictions are near 45 degree reference line with good performance. The annual average concentration of PM in urban area near to steel complex is affected 5-15 by steel complex stakes. 28

29 Acknowledgment At the end, I would like to appreciate the following people and organization: HSE office of Isfahan steel complex and Isfahan Provincial Department of Environment for providing stack parameters and PM emission data form stacks World Learning U.S. National Academy of Science (NAS) The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) The University of Southern California (USC) UNESCO chair in water and environment management for sustainable cites, Sharif university of Technology, Iran 29

30 Thank you 30

31 From the HSE office of Isfahan steel complex and Isfahan Provincial Department of Environment