Energy Economics: CO 2 Emissions in China

Transcription

1 Yiming Wei Lancui Liu Gang Wu Lele Zou Energy Economics: CO 2 Emissions in China With 134 figures imp Science Press Si Beijing

2 Contents Chapter 1 Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Characteristics of world energy use Energy is an important driver of socio-economic development World energy intensity decreases continually with great difference from country to country Differences of energy consumption distribution among sectors in different development phases Fossil energy dominates world energy consumption structure Uneven energy consumption Fossil energy use and climate change Global warming directly threats the human environment Industrial production is the major cause of global climate change CO2 emissions caused by fossil fuels combustion are the main sources of greenhouse gases Basic characteristics of world CO2 emissions CO2 emissions increase continually Electricity, industry and transportation sectors account for po% 70% emissions of total CO2 emissions Industrialized countries account for 80% of world accumulated CO2 emissions CO2 emissions mitigation and sustainable development CO2 emissions and socio-economic development CO2 emissions mitigation has become one of the new elements of sustainable development Challenges and opportunities of CO2 emission abatement for China 24 References ; 25 Chapter 2 Analysis of Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in China Characteristics of energy consumption in China Huge energy consumption with high growth rate Low carbon energy grows fast in recent years while small in

3 x Contents proportion Big difference in energy structure with certain potential Low energy efficiency and big differences among regions Overview of CO2 emissions in China CO2 emissions grow fast while accumulated emission is lower than that of major developed countries CO2 emissions per capita is lower than the level in developed countries and worldwide average CO2 emission intensity is higher than world average while decreases fast Study on characteristics of CO2 emissions from primary energy consumption in China CO2 emissions and its intensity during Method for studying CO2 emission change Structure decomposition analysis on CO2 emission intensity Structure decomposition analysis on CO2 emissions Conclusion 57 References 58 Chapter 3 Study on Impact Factors of CO2 Emissions under Different Economic Development Levels Population, economy, technology and CO2 emissions Change of CO2 emissions Change of population Change of GDP per capita Change of energy intensity, Method for analysis STIRPAT Model Data sources Impact analysis of population, economy and technology on CO2 emissions Conclusion. 76 References 77 Chapter 4 Evolution Characteristics of CO 2 Emissions in Carbon-intensive Sectors in China Study on characteristics of CO2 emissions change in electricity sector Current status of CO2 emissions in electricity sector Method for analyzing CO2 emission change in electricity

4 Contents xi sector Structure decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions coefficient in electricity production Structure decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions coefficient in electricity consumption Study on characteristics of CO2 emission change from final energy use ; Method for analysis " CO2 emission intensity in material production sector CO2 emissions in material production sector Study on characteristics of CO2 emissions change from final energy use in industry sector Current status of CO2 emissions in industry sector Method for analysis Analysis of CO2 emissions change in industry sector Conclusion Ill References 114 Chapter 5 Impacts of Household Consumption and Export Trade on CO 2 Emissions Impact of household consumption on CO 2 emissions Current household consumption in urban and rural areas Methodology: Input-Output Model CO2 emissions of household consumption Impact factors of household CO2 emissions Uijban and rural household CO2 emissions under different income levels Impact of export trade on CO2 emissions Current export trade status of China CO2 emissions embodied in exports Impact factors of CO2 emissions embodied in export trade Conclusion 143 References 144 Chapter 6 Study on Regional CO2 Emissions Change in China Comparison analysis of regional CO2 emissions Comparison analysis of regional total CO2 emissions Comparison analysis of regional per capita CO2 emissions Comparison analysis of regional CO2 emission intensity 149

5 xii Contents Regional electrical CO2 emission coefficient analysis Method for analysis of regional CO2 emissions variation Analysis of regional CO2 emissions during Impact from economic growth on regional CO2 emissions Impact from industrial structure on regional CO2 emissions Impact from energy intensity on regional CO2 emissions Impact from CO2 emission coefficient on regional CO2 emissions 6.4 Conclusion 159 References 160 Chapter 7 CO2 Emission Abatement Technology and Impact Analysis Major CO2 emission abatement technologies Renewable energy technology Advanced power generation technologies Carbon capture and storage technology Energy conservation technologies Analysis of CO2 emission abatement capability of technologies Renewable energy could mitigate CO2 emissions effectively with long term abatement potential IGCC and NGCC now are in commercial demonstration and may accomplish the overall optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction CCS may reach near zero emission Socio-economic impact analysis of renewable electricity China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (CEEPA) Analysis of socio-economic impact of renewable electricity Conclusion 192 References 193 Chapter 8 Simulations of CO2 Mitigation Policies Major mitigation policies Study on carbon taxation policy Setting of carbon tax schemes Analysis the effects of carbon tax policy 201 r 158

6 Contents xiii Discussion of carbon tax policy Study on carbon pricing mechanism based on bilateral trading model Bilateral trading model Trading scenarios Comparison and analysis of carbon pricing mechanism Conclusion : 227 References 228 Chapter 9 International Carbon Market and Its Impacts on CO>2 Emission Abatement International carbon market Overview of quota based market Overview of project based market Relationship between EU carbon market and energy price Relationship between carbon prices and energy prices Model of cointegrating relationship test between carbon prices and energy prices Analysis of interactions between carbon prices and energy prices Liquidity analysis of EU carbon market Models for market liquidity study Data sources and definitions Empirical results and discussions Socio-economic impacts analysis of CDM projects in China CEEPA model with CERs prices Macro impacts of renewable electricity CDM project Impacts of renewable electricity CDM project on energy intensive sectors and energy sectors Regional impacts of CDM projects Challenges of international carbon market development Uncertainty of long-term development of international carbon market Challenges of the development of EU carbon market Challenges of the development of CDM market Conclusion 294 References 296

7 xiv Contents Chapter 10 Outlook of CO 2 Abatement in China Main driving forces of CO2 emissions in the procedure of urbanization and industrialization in China Economic growth Population growth Urbanization level Technology advance China's future CO2 emissions Total emissions continue growing Per capita CO2 emission will continually increase while still lower than the current level of developed countries CO2 emissions in Central China occupies the largest share Obvious difference existing among CO2 emission intensities Huge shifting emission among regions Pathway of CO 2 abatement in China Optimizing economic structure and energy structure as the long-term strategy of CO2 abatement Guiding household consumption style to reduce CO2 emissions Improving structure of international trade to lower embedded CO2 emissions Strengthening self-innovation of technology to mitigate CO2 emissions effectively Balancing positive and negative impacts of carbon tax Participating and improving international carbon market actively Policy implications Guiding GHG mitigation in the national energy strategy Accelerating the R&D of low carbon technologies Optimizing the industrial structure and energy consumption structure Accelerating the import of advanced energy technologies through international mechanism Strengthening socio-economic impacts analysis of

8 Contents xv mitigation policies Enhancing the propaganda of the efforts on GHG mitigation 321 References 321