MISO LOLE Modeling of Wind and Demand Response. Item-9b LOLE Best Practices Working Group July 26-27, 2012

Transcription

1 MISO LOLE Modeling of Wind and Demand Response Item-9b LOLE Best Practices Working Group July 26-27,

2 Overview Wind Capacity Modeling MISO performs a detailed analysis to determine what the capacity value of wind should be used in: Capacity Market Resources (Tariff Module-E) Resource Adequacy & LOLE type Studies Other models that require a capacity value representation for wind Demand Response (DR) Modeling A description of LOLE modeling technique using available MISO market data (Tariff Module-E) 2

3 Why do we calculate Wind Capacity Credit? So that wind capacity can be treated comparable to traditional dispatchable capacity for Resource Adequacy and locational aspects. MISO reserve margin requirement for 2012 year is 16.7%. Reserve margins are mandatory and determined by MISO Capacity has value. Wind is intermittent any may not be available on-peak. If not available on peak then it has diminished capacity and economic value The LMP for Wind energy is treated comparable in the real-time market, usually as a price taker; however wind can optionally offer short term prices under terms of Dispatchable Intermittent Resources (DIR) and set market price. 3

4 MISO Wind 11,000 MW and Growing 140+ Wind CP-Nodes Red locations indicate Dispatchable Interment Recourses (DIR)

5 The MISO process for determining Wind Capacity consists of two steps: 1. Step-1 utilizes a Probabilistic approach to calculate the MISO system-wide Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) value for all wind resources in the MISO footprint 1 day in 10 year outage reliability standard USE GE MARS program Monte Carlo 2. Step-2 is a Deterministic Period Metric that results in a value for each wind resource at each of the 140+ wind CP-Nodes on the MISO system The 2012 LOLE Study Report Chapter-3 describes Step-1 Appendix-F describes Step-2 OLE%20Study%20Report.pdf 5

6 Effective Load Carrying Capability Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) defined as the amount of incremental load a resource, such as wind, can dependably and reliably serve, while considering the probabilistic nature of generation shortfalls and random forced outages as driving factors to load not being served 6

7 ELCC Calculation To measure ELCC of a particular resource, the reliability effects need to be isolated for the resource in question, from those of all the other sources. This is accomplished by calculating the LOLE of two different cases: one with and one without the resource Example System With & Without New Resource ELCC Example System at the same LOLE Base System Decreased Load Base System LOLE = 0.15 days/year (or 1½ days in 10 years) -200 MW LOLE = 0.1 days/year (or 1 day in 10 years) Base System LOLE = 0.08 days/year (or 0.8 days in 10 years) + New Resource (Wind) Load Increased +100 MW Base System LOLE = 0.1 days/year (or 1 day in 10 years) + New Resource (Wind) 1000 MW Nameplate 7

8 Calculation methodology Step 1 Yearly LOLE simulation with historic hourly wind output and hourly load, LOLE benchmark level is set Step 2 Yearly LOLE simulation without the wind, load reduction by trail & error until LOLE benchmark level is met Step 3 The load reduction to meet the LOLE benchmark is the Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) Step 4 Plot historic wind ELCC values (left most graph points) Step 5 Repeat Steps 1-4 but at increased wind penetration levels (10%, 20% & 30%) to develop penetration curves Step 6 Average the 7 curve points at the current system penetration level to establish MISO System-Wide ELCC Wind Capacity Credit Step 7 Calculate Wind Capacity Credit by CP-node by taking wind CP-node output at 8 different daily peak load hours for each year of historic operations to deterministically determine each individual wind CP-Nodes contribution to the System-Wide Capacity Value

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10 Historical tracking chart Market-wide Operational Tracking Peak Load (MW) Planning Year (PY) Actual Metered Wind MW at Peak Load 1 Registered Max MW Capacity (RMax) Peak Day % of (RMax) Historical Penetration Annual Historical ELCC MISO Capacity Credit 109, % 0.8% 16.7% N/A 113, , % 1.1% 39.6% N/A 101, , % 2.0% 2.8% N/A 96, , % 3.2% 12.8% N/A 94, , % 6.0% 3.1% 20.0% 107, ,770 8, % 7.6% 18.9% 8.0% 102, ,421 9, % 9.7% 30.1% 12.9% Pending 2012 Pending Pending Pending Pending Pending 14.7% Note 1 Curtailed and DIR MW have been added to settlement MW 10

11 35% 30% 25% Wind CPnode Capacity Credit Percent Results CPnode Capacity Credit (%) 14.7% System Wide ELCC 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Number of CPnodes Ordered by Capacity Credit % 11

12 30% Wind Capacity Credit Method 25% 20% 15% 10% 14.7% System-Wide Wind ELCC Value 10 GW Penetration 20 GW Penetration 30 GW Penetration 5% If Applied to Past Capacity Credit Projection 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% Penetration

13 Demand Response (DR) Modeling Current LOLE modeling practice not that sophisticated DR is being modeled as an energy limited resources Modeled as a unit of last resort on as needed basis to reduce LOLE Model parameters are driven by capacity market inputs Demand Response Background DR is categorized as a Load Modifying Resource (LMR) Behind the Meter Generation is also an LMR LMRs are one of the various steps of Emergency Operation Procedures (EOPs) EOP step table on next slide LMRs are emergency steps taken before shedding firm load To participate as a capacity resource, LMRs have a tariff defined minimum requirement to be able to be called for 5-events lasting 4-hours each (20 total hours of use) 13

14 Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs) Resource Levels 14

15 Contact Info Brandon Heath (651) Davey Lopez (317) Chuck Tyson (651)