Gold Coast. Rapid Transit. Air Quality

Transcription

1 Gold Coast Rapid Transit 15 Air Quality

2 Contents 1. Introduction Air Quality Assessment Methodology Key Emission Constituents Emissions to Air Potential Benefits, Impacts and the Mitigation Measures Total Emissions Diurnal Variation Local (Hot spot) Modelling Conclusion Table Index Table 15 1 Table 15 2 Table 15 3 Table 15 4 Table 15 5 Table 15 6 Table 15 7 Table 15 8 Various emission constituents with relevant EPP Air goals, Air NEPM standards and goals and Air Toxics monitoring investigation levels 15 4 Annual Emissions summary (tonnes) for South East Queensland fleet Mobile6 Emissions Factors (g/km) for South East Queensland fleet Mobile6 Emissions Factors (g/km) for South East Queensland fleet 15 9 Annual Emissions Summary (tonnes) for South East Queensland Annual Emissions Summary (tonnes) for Gold Coast Study Area Annual Vehicle Kilometres Travelled for South East Queensland Annualised Fleet Vehicle Speeds (km/h) for South East Queensland Vol 2 Chp 15 i

3 Figure Index Figure 15 1 Full domain traffic model 15 7 Figure 15 2 Figure 15 3 Figure 15 4 Figure 15 5 Figure 15 6 Figure 15 7 Figure 15 8 Figure 15 9 Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Hidden Text Speed correction factors to adjust Mobile6 emission factors for Carbon Monoxide (CO), Oxides of Nitrogen and Hydrocarbons (NOx & VOC) and Particulate Matter (PM) Grid emissions (g/s) of CO during peak periods during 2006 for a 2.5 x 2.5 kilometre grid over South East Queensland No Project 1 hour Average CO Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) Build Project 1 hour Average CO Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) % Change 1 hour Average CO Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) No Project 1 hour Average NO2 Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) Build Project 1 hour Average NO2 Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) % Change 1 hour Average NO2 Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) No Project 24 hour Average PM10 Concentrations (ug/m3, max) Build Project 24 hour Average PM10 Concentrations (ug/m3, max) % Change 24 hour Average PM10 Concentrations No Project 1 hour Average Formaldehyde Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) Build Project 1 hour Average Formaldehyde Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) % Change 1 hour Average Formaldehyde Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) Vol 2 Chp 15 ii

4 1. Introduction The purpose of this Chapter is to present the air quality issues associated with the Gold Coast Rapid Transit (GCRT) Project. This air quality impact assessment is focused on the operational phase of the project, however; construction phase air quality issues have been considered as part of this Chapter and the Volume 3 Impact Management Plan Part 2 Construction Phase. Three projected scenarios were considered in the air quality assessment with all related to the 2006 base case:» 2011 Day Before Opening (DBO), also known as do nothing ;» 2011 Day After Opening, (DAO) also known as do something ; and» 2021 Operation. Also note that the fuel type assumed for the bus rapid transit was diesel. This as assumed on the basis that other fuel types are likely to be cleaner and therefore have less impact on air quality. 1.1 Air Quality Assessment Top Down Basis for Assessment This air quality assessment is based on a top down approach with the South East Queensland (SEQ) airshed as the top level of air quality assessment. This approach is used on the basis that there is a high degree of air quality relationship across the SEQ region as a relatively discrete unit of air quality. Within the region, the Pacific Motorway is a major source of traffic generated impact on air quality and as such is used as the relative comparison for the air quality impact of the GCRT Project. This type of approach highlights the relative impact of the GCRT in the region s airshed and then sub regional modelling is used to confirm the more coarse regional assessment. Only where these two higher levels of assessment indicate unacceptable levels of impact on air quality is any detailed location specific assessment required. As per the conclusions of this assessment, it is identified that the GCRT should not cause an adverse impact on air quality. This operational air quality assessment is divided into two main phases, with the second component may be used to inform any subsequent detailed study or monitoring where it may be desired:» Phase 1: An emissions to air analyses of the scenarios, this involves a comparative analysis based on a spatially varying mass emissions to air inventory for each significant pollutant species and for each alignment section; and» Phase 2: A detailed assessment of the changes to the regional air quality resulting from the introduction of the preferred option over a do nothing approach, this involves a dispersion modelling assessment of hot spot differences in air quality between the selected preferred option and the do nothing option. The bulk of air contaminants in the regional airshed at the Gold Coast are from motor vehicle exhaust constituents. As the light rail and bus technology options are expected to have low emissions to air, the focus of this assessment is on the exhaust emissions from domestic and commercial vehicles in the Vol 2 Chp 15 1

5 region. The assessment considers how the regional and local impacts of the exhaust emissions from these vehicles will change for both peak hour (worst case and local) and daily average periods (regional) as the result of introduced changes to traffic alignments by the GCRT. Since the assessment is using modelling results, the 99.9 percentile (ppm, 99.9th %ile) is used to identify the worst case 1 hour event Identification the Key Emission Constituents Based on experience with comparable assessments, the key emission constituents have been identified and include those that are likely to be critically constraining factors from the perspective of the air assessment. The key emission constituents are identified in section 3.1 of this Chapter Emissions to Air Analysis of Various Scenarios An analysis of emissions to air for the various scenarios involved traffic modelling data as input to produce a spatially varying 250 metre resolution emissions inventory (in the form of a grid) of identified significant vehicular exhaust emissions species for different times of the day. To compile the fleet vehicle emissions inventory for the entire study domain, best available fleet vehicle emission factors were used with due consideration of a speed correction to the emissions. Emission rates for each significant emission constituent were compiled and compared for each scenario. Emissions were determined for the daily average. The assessment of peak vehicular flows and air quality impacts were based on the DBO and DAO in 2011 scenarios and provided an indication of changed emission patterns and resultant ground level impacts Detailed analysis of Air Quality Impacts As a screening level indicator, a regional (SEQ) extent of the traffic model total emission to air for each air quality indicator constituent was assessed. A study area sub set of this total area, as indicated in Figure 15 1, included the traffic model south of the Pacific Highway crossing the Logan River and north of the New South Wales border. The analysis compared the 2006 base year with the 2011 do something and do nothing options with a further projection forward in time to The species specific fleet vehicle and grid emissions inventory for the do nothing and the final built scenarios were used in the approved dispersion model AUSPLUME to conduct a comparative dispersion modelling analysis of air quality in the region of the proposed alignment, for peak hours and average emissions. In order to maintain an adequate spatial resolution, the alignment was broken into component segment assessments. The modelling used a year of site representative recorded hourly meteorology, synthesised for use with the AUSPLUME model. This was sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology Gold Coast Seaway Automatic Weather Station site. The level of induced congestion near to sensitive receivers brought about by the introduction of the GCRT was assessed. This consisted of looking at hot spot areas adjacent to sensitive receiver sites (i.e. long term residences; child day care facilities, kindergartens and schools; hospitals and medical centres) during worst case periods. The option of assessing if additional congestion is considered significant for the near field impacts of induced congestion for peak hour emissions at select representative sites via the use of the approved AUSROADS line source traffic analysis model is left unresolved but areas of interest are identified. Vol 2 Chp 15 2

6 2. Methodology 2.1 Key Emission Constituents The scope of works required identification of the key emission constituents and an assessment as to whether any are likely to be critically constraining from an air quality perspective. These emission constituents are used in the detailed hot spot modelling. Roadside monitoring in Queensland (Environment Protection and Heritage Council 2008) indicates that these traffic emissions are below concentration levels of concern. This is true for road capacities, with associated traffic flow, higher than that found in the GCRT study area. A Queensland Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report into roadside air quality (Neale & Wainwright, 2001) identified significant species for air pollutant levels experienced by residences and business premises adjacent to major roads. Vehicle emissions of interest are:» Gaseous products of combustion such as Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) which includes NO and NO 2 ;» Solid matter and aerosols such as Particulate Matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) and Lead (Pb); and» Petroleum derived emissions such as unburnt fuel including Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs). The Environmental Protection (Air) Policy 1997 (EPP (Air)), sets out ambient air quality goals to judge pollutant levels against potential to cause harm to human health and wellbeing in Queensland. Neale and Wainwright (2001) determined that the relevant goals from EPP (Air) for roadside investigations are CO, NO 2, PM 10 and Lead. The National Environment Protection Council of Environmental Ministers, now the Environment Protection and Heritage Council (EPHC), set uniform standards for Australian ambient air in June These are known as the National Environment Protection (Ambient Air Quality) Measure (Air NEPM) that sets non binding 1 standards and ten year goals (i.e. 2008). A variation to the Air NEPM was made in May 2003 which strengthens air quality standards to help protect Australians from the adverse health impacts of small pollutant particles (EPHC 2008). The variation introduced advisory reporting standards for fine particles of size 2.5 micrometres or less (also known as PM 2.5 ). An Air Toxics NEPM was introduced by EPHC in The Air Toxics Measure is primarily concerned with the collection of data on ambient (i.e. outdoor) levels of formaldehyde, toluene, xylene, benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) at locations where elevated levels are expected to occur and there is a likelihood that significant population exposure could occur (EPHC 2008). The motor vehicle is implicated as the major emission source in all five of the Air Toxics under investigation. Various emission constituents are detailed in Table 15 1 with relevant EPP (Air) goals, Air NEPM standards and goals and Air Toxics monitoring investigation levels. 1 The Air NEPM standards apply to regional Air Quality as it effects the general population and does not apply in areas impacted by localised air emissions such as industrial sources and heavily trafficked streets and roads. Vol 2 Chp 15 3

7 Table 15 1 Various emission constituents with relevant EPP Air goals, Air NEPM standards and goals and Air Toxics monitoring investigation levels Key Emission Constituent EPP (Air) NEPM Carbon Monoxide (CO) 8ppm as 8 hour average 9ppm as 8 hour average (No more than 1 day per year) Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) 0.160ppm as 1 hour average 0.12ppm as 1 hour average (No more than 1 day per year) Sulphur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Photochemical Oxidants (as O 3 ) Respirable Particulate Matter (PM 10 ) 0.250ppm as 10 minute average 0.200ppm as 1 hour average 0.040ppm as 24 hour average 0.020ppm as annual average 0.098ppm as 1 hour average 0.079ppm as 4 hour average 150µg/m 3 as 24 hour average 50µg/m 3 as annual hour average (No more than 1 day per year) as 1 hour average 0.080ppm as 24 hour average 0.020ppm as annual average 0.100ppm as 1 hour average 0.080ppm as 4 hour average (No more than 1 day per year) 50µg/m 3 as 24 hour average (No more than 5 days per year) Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) N/A 25µg/m 3 as 24 hour average 8µg/m 3 as annual average (Advisory reporting standard only) Lead (Pb) 1.5µg/m 3 as 90 day average 0.5µg/m 3 as annual average Benzo(a)pyrene (as a marker for PAHs) Toluene N/A 2.0ppm as 24 hour average (Neale 2005) 0.3 ng/m 3 as annual average 1.0ppm as 24 hour average 0.1ppm as annual average Benzene N/A 0.003ppm as annual average Formaldehyde Xylene (as total of ortho, meta and para isomers) 0.07ppm as 30 min average (EPP) N/A 0.04ppm as 24 hour average 0.25ppm as 24 hour average 0.20ppm as annual average Vol 2 Chp 15 4

8 2.2 Emissions to Air This section describes how traffic modelling data was used to produce a spatially varying 250 metre resolution emissions inventory of identified significant vehicular exhaust emissions. To compile the fleet vehicle emissions grid inventory for the entire study domain, traffic modelling data were combined with fleet vehicle emission factors Traffic modelling Traffic modelling data were obtained from Bitzios Consulting (BITZIOS 2008). This consisted of VISUM model (Queensland Transport & Translink, 2008) output for linked roads across SEQ. The data extends from 30 kilometres south into New South Wales and to 10 kilometres north of Brisbane airport. Provided data consisted of MapInfo shape files (which allows for geographical fixing) with each of the following parameters for all links:» Link Number;» Starting node number of the given link;» End node number of the given link;» Number of lanes in the given link;» Capacity of the given link for time period;» Volume of the car on the given link in the analysis period;» Volume of the commercial vehicles (CV) on the given link in the analysis period;» Volume capacity ratio;» Free flow speed;» Congested speed;» Vehicle volume for time period;» Car volume for time period; and» CV volume for time period. Time periods available:» AM 7.00 to 9.00am (2 hrs);» DT 9.00 to 4.00 pm (7 hrs);» PM 4.00 to 6.00pm (2 hrs); and» NT 6.00 pm to 7.00 am (13 hrs). Model runs:» 2006 Base Year;» 2011 do something (DAO);» 2011 do nothing (DBO); and Vol 2 Chp 15 5

9 » 2021 Operation. Figure 15 1 shows the full domain of the traffic modelling with the individual road links shown and the GCRT study area as highlighted areas Fleet vehicle emission factors Best available fleet vehicle emission factors were needed for the study area with due consideration of a speed correction to the emission rate. The EPA provided (EPA 2007) emission factor tables for petrol and diesel vehicles that were developed for their 2003 publication Air Emissions Inventory South east Queensland Region. The emission factors for petrol vehicles were for the year 2011, taking into account age based deterioration factors but without age based deterioration factors for diesel vehicles. An overall SEQ vehicle emission summary from this work is reproduced as Table Table 15 2 Annual Emissions summary (tonnes) for South East Queensland fleet Pollutant Base Case Low High Low High Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) 62,981 63,228 65,429 58,181 67,029 Carbon Monoxide (CO) 427, , , , ,216 Total Hydrocarbons 26,549 23,047 25,325 21,067 28,503 Particulate matter <10 micron (PM 10 ) 2,226 2,165 2,235 1,713 1,986 Sulphur Dioxide (SO 2 ) 1,885 2,160 2,265 2,559 3,074 Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) 8,923,515 10,262, ,882, ,410,564 15,431,016 Methane (CH 4 ) 2,397 2,274 2,495 2,257 3,047 Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) ,037 1,280 1,572 Vehicle Kilometres Travelled (VKT) Millions of km 21,362 23,433 25,034 27,804 34,245 Vol 2 Chp 15 6

10 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit DRAFT CDIMP SAMFORD AMITY POINT FULL DOMAIN TRAFFIC MODEL POINT LOOKOUT FIGURE BRISBANE DUNWICH Legend Study Area VICTORIA POINT REDLAND BAY Section 1 Section 2 Section POINT TALBURPIN RUSSELL-MACLEAY ISLANDS JACOBS WELL JIMBOOMBA SANTA BARBARA EAGLE HEIGHTS OXENFORD HELENSVALE BEAUDESERT MOUNT TAMBORINE CANUNGRA NERANG GOLD COAST TWEED HEADS TUMBULGUM ² TYALGUM UKI MURWILLUMBAH FERNVALE BURRINGBAR BOGANGAR HASTINGS POINT POTTSVILLE BEACH ,000 10,000 15,000 Metres 1:400,000@ A3 Copyright Melway Publishing Reproduced from Brisway edition 2 with permission. Copyright: This document is and shall remain the property of GHD Pty Ltd. The document may only be used for the purpose for which it was commissioned and in accordance with the terms of engagement for the commission. Unauthorised use of this document in any way is prohibited. Source: Approximate bus routes digitised by GHD current to Feb 2008, maybe subject to change. Topography from Brisway (2006). Projection: MGA56 (GDA94) Date Printed: File:G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_7\Technical Reports\MXD\ Fig_1_Broad_Scale_map.mxd

11 Mobile6 was used to produce emission factors based on an understanding of Queensland conditions and expected fleet composition. The model was calibrated to be consistent with the EPA data. Emission factors, without a speed correction, for 2006 and 2011 for key constituents derived from the model are shown in Table 15 3 and Table Note that for some constituents, the commercial vehicle emissions are much higher than the fleet emissions per distance travelled. Table Mobile6 Emissions Factors (g/km) for South East Queensland fleet Pollutant Fleet Cars Commercial Fleet from Table 15 2 Oxides of Nitrogen (NO x ) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Sulphur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Particulate matter <10 micron (PM 10 ) Particulate matter <2.5 micron (PM 2.5 ) Total Hydrocarbons Benzo(a)pyrene (mg/km) Toluene Benzene Formaldehyde Xylene Vol 2 Chp 15 8

12 Table Mobile6 Emissions Factors (g/km) for South East Queensland fleet Pollutant Fleet Cars Commercial Fleet from Table 15 2 Oxides of Nitrogen (NO x ) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Sulphur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Particulate matter <10 micron (PM 10 ) Particulate matter <2.5 micron (PM 2.5 ) Total Hydrocarbons Benzo(a)pyrene (mg/km) Toluene Benzene Formaldehyde Xylene Despite the increased distance travelled by vehicles between 2006 and 2011 (see final row of Table 15 2 the emission rate falls for all constituents due to the expected improvement in vehicle pollution control equipment. A correction for speed is made by multiplying the emission factors found in Table 15 3 by a speed factor. The speed factors for various constituents are shown in Figure The traffic modelling for 2021 is for the operating GCRT only. This precludes making a before and after assessment. Projecting vehicle emission rates this far into the future is subject to many uncertainties (effect of fuel prices and other externalities on fuel efficiencies of the fleet, mix and penetration of hybrid and electric vehicles etc.). To compare 2021 to the 2011 scenarios, an upper bound estimate used the 2011 emission rates. Vol 2 Chp 15 9

13 Speed Correction Factor Vehicle Speed (km/h) CO NOx & VOC PM Figure 15 2 Speed correction factors to adjust Mobile6 emission factors for Carbon Monoxide (CO), Oxides of Nitrogen and Hydrocarbons (NOx & VOC) and Particulate Matter (PM) Grid emission rates Each traffic link node within the traffic model data can be assigned to a box within an emissions grid. The emission factor for each vehicle type was corrected by the speed correction factor for each link. The congested speed was used to get the worst case peak emissions associated with slow moving traffic while the average speed was used for the daily average emission rate. The vehicle counts for each vehicle type where used to get total emissions for each link in grams/second (g/s). These emissions were then split in two and assigned equally to each end of the traffic node. The summation of each of these emissions for each grid square gives the peak, for each of the four time periods available, and daily average emission rate (in total g/s for each grid square). Note that the method of correcting for both speed and traffic mix introduces non linear relationships between total airshed emission rate per vehicle kilometre travelled (VKT) and individual grid cells (accounts for variable VKT, speed and traffic mix along each individual node). An example of grid emissions is given in Figure This shows a 2.5 x 2.5 kilometre grid over the entire SEQ traffic model domain. The Gold Coast is the coloured region bottom right while Brisbane CBD is to the top left with the connecting higher emissions associated with the Pacific Motorway. A closer examination of the 2006 grid data (2.5 x 2.5 kilometre) indicates that peak hourly VKT in the Brisbane area is 119,976 VKT while the Gold Coast study area experiences a maximum of 57,172 VKT per peak hour. This suggests that the emission load in the Gold Coast area will be lower than that found in the Brisbane CBD. Vol 2 Chp 15 10

14 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit FINAL CDIMP GRID EMMISSIONS (g/s) OF CO DURING PEAK PERIODS DURING 2006 FOR A 2.5km x 2.5km GRID OVER SOUTH-EAST QUEENSLAND FIGURE 15-3 Brisbane Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE Gold Coast BROADBEACH ² Not to Scale Tweed Source: Gold Coast HOV Strategy 2 Report, Bitzios Consulting, Feb Date Printed: File:G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP \Volume_7\Technical reports\mxd\fig_4 _proposed_route_and_staging_gcrt.mxd Size: A4

15 3. Potential Benefits, Impacts and the Mitigation Measures 3.1 Total Emissions After accounting for the non linear influences of VKT, speed and traffic mix the total tonnes of air emissions for each scenario are given in Table The corresponding values for the reduced Gold Coast study area are given in Table Table 15 5 Annual Emissions Summary (tonnes) for South East Queensland Tonnes/year Scenario CO NOx VOC PM2.5 PM10 Formaldehyde , ,273 20,029 2,315 2, Do Nothing (DBO) 2011 GCRT (DAO) 300, ,297 33,291 3,846 4, , ,654 33,171 3,831 4, GCRT 366, ,576 35,397 4,368 5, Table 15 6 Annual Emissions Summary (tonnes) for Gold Coast Study Area Tonnes/year Scenario CO NOx VOC PM2.5 PM10 Formaldehyde ,452 39,465 7, Do Nothing (DBO) 2011 GCRT (DAO) 85,408 52,399 9, , ,727 52,126 9, , GCRT 121,405 71,169 13,288 1,307 1, Vol 2 Chp 15 12

16 The traffic modelling combined with the emission estimation indicates that the opening of the GCRT will result in an overall decrease for all pollution types of total emissions. While this decrease is small (less than 1% in the study area) it does reverse some of the gains resulting from growth in the total VKT. 3.2 Diurnal Variation Table 15 7 shows the daily total VKT for the entire traffic model for each scenario and for each part of the day modelled. The general growth in the traffic volume can be seen. This is a first order indication of how emissions are projected to change over time. The opening of the GCRT system produces a 1% drop in traffic distance travelled. However, this is not uniform across the day as daytime VKT drops by 2% while the overnight distance barely changes. The morning and afternoon peaks decrease slightly during 2011 but the average speeds for the traffic (42.3 to 42.4 km/h for the morning peak and 42.3 to 40.0 km/h for the afternoon peak), shown in Table 15 8, suggests a change to traffic congestion that is worthy of further study. This will have an additional change on local emissions and requires further analysis involving hot spot modelling. The average speeds for the afternoon peak indicate traffic congestion problems greater than the morning peak. Dispersion of traffic emissions is usually greater during the afternoon associated with higher wind speeds. The substantial decrease in vehicle speeds out to 2021 indicates a non sustainable traffic scenario. Table 15 7 Annual Vehicle Kilometres Travelled for South East Queensland VKT, million km Scenario Morning Peak Daytime Evening Peak Overnight Total Do Nothing (DBO) 2011 GCRT (DAO) GCRT Vol 2 Chp 15 13

17 Table 15 8 Annualised Fleet Vehicle Speeds (km/h) for South East Queensland Fleet Vehicle Speeds (km/h) Scenario Morning Peak Daytime Evening Peak Overnight Total Do Nothing (DBO) 2011 GCRT (DAO) GCRT Local (Hot spot) Modelling To gain an appreciation of air quality impacts as a result of the implementation of the GCRT system, air dispersion modelling was undertaken for the study area. This involved:» traffic emissions from grid area sources (52 x 32 hectare sized area sources with emissions initially spread throughout a depth of 3 m);» emission and resultant dispersion for every hour corresponding to the full year meteorological file of the Gold Coast seaway;» receptors covering the study area (1 x 1 kilometre cartesian grid); and» post processing to obtain worst case ground level concentrations and changes from DBO to DAO. Figures show the calculated highest 1 hour ground level concentration resulting from the traffic emissions alone for:» Carbon Monoxide (CO);» Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx);» PM10; and» Formeldehyde. Carbon Monoxide Figures Figure 15 4 and Figure 15 5 show the peak 1 hour CO average ground level concentration across the study area for the do nothing and do something scenarios, respectively. Levels are highest along the Pacific Motorway. These highest levels are near the assessment criteria found in Table 15 1 but are peak 1 hour levels compared to an 8 hour standard. It is highly unlikely that the eight highest levels occur in consecutive hours, so the air quality goal will be achieved everywhere. Vol 2 Chp 15 14

18 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 No Project hour Average CO Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE 15-4 Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1 : Tweed A4 LEGEND - ppm EPP (Air) CO Air Quality Goal: 9 ppm (8-hour Average) Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A1_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

19 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 Build Project hour Average CO Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE 15-5 Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1 : Tweed A4 LEGEND - ppm EPP (Air) CO Air Quality Goal: 9 ppm (8-hour Average) Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A2_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

20 Figure 15 6 shows the percentage change in peak 1 hour CO between DBO and DAO. The maximum increase occurs near the intersection of Hooker Boulevard and Bermuda Street. Oxides of Nitrogen The emissions data for NOx include both NO and the assessment pollutant of NO 2. For traffic emissions, NO 2 is approximately 5% at the point of emission (vehicle tailpipe; HAS 2001) but the proportion changes with time due to chemical reaction and ambient atmospheric influences (temperature and ultraviolet light for example). It is regarded that 15% percent is a conservative estimate for near road impact assessments. This is confirmed by Holmes Air Sciences (HAS 2001) in their assessment of ambient NOx monitoring in the heavily trafficked environment of downtown Sydney. In this it was found that for the ten highest measurements of hourly NOx the proportion of NO 2 in the total NOx was 14.9%. Figures Figure 15 7 and Figure 15 8 show the peak 1 hour NO 2 average ground level concentration across the study area for the do nothing and do something scenarios, respectively. Using the 15% conversion ratio then results in identifying the worst case excesses of the air quality goal. These occur to the highest extent along the Pacific Motorway to the west of the GCRT. Some areas extending east from the Pacific Motorway and into residential areas of the Gold Coast are modelled to experience levels above the goal but the goal is achieved for any conversion ratio less than the conservative 15% used. The road side monitoring work of Neale and Wainwright (2001) supports the assumption of a lower conversion ratio as even roads with over 68,000 vehicles per day did not record levels of NO 2 above the goal. Figure 15 9 shows the percentage change in peak NO 2 as a result of the introduction of the GCRT system. There is very little change along the peak impact areas of the inland Pacific Motorway. There is evidence of induced congestion near the alignment closest to the Gold Coast Highway. Traffic interruption as the Sundale Bridge has traffic entering Southport experiences the greatest percentage increase in NOx impact. PM10 Figure shows the worst case 24 hour average for PM10 for DBO. Highest levels are found along the route of the Pacific motorway but are well below the air quality goal of 150µg/m 3 as a 24 hour average. Figure shows an almost identical situation for the DAO and well below the regulatory goal. The difference between DBO and DAO is shown in Figure This indicates the highest areas of air quality impact due to particles as being along Bermuda Street between the Nerang Broadbeach Road and Ashmore Road. The percentage differences are small as averaging occurs across a 24 hour period. Formeldehyde Figures Figure and Figure show the peak 1 hour Formaldehyde average ground level concentration across the study area for the do nothing and do something scenarios respectively. Levels are highest along the Pacific Motorway and are also always lower than the assessment criteria specified in Table The percentage change between DBO and DAO, shown in Figure 15 14, indicates that the biggest increase due to induced congestion is as the Sundale Bridge enters Southport. Vol 2 Chp 15 17

21 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 % Change hour Average CO Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE 15-6 Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1 : Tweed A4 LEGEND - Percent Change Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A3_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

22 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 No Project hour Average NO2 Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE 15-7 Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1 : Tweed A4 LEGEND - ppm EPP (Air) NO2 Air Quality Goal: 0.16 ppm (1-hour Average) Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A4_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

23 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 Build Project hour Average NO2 Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE 15-8 Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1 : Tweed A4 LEGEND - ppm EPP (Air) NO2 Air Quality Goal: 0.16 ppm (1-hour Average) Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A5_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

24 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 % Change - 1-hour Average NO2 Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE 15-9 Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1: Tweed A4 LEGEND - Percent Change Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A6_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

25 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 No Project - 24-hour Average PM10 Concentrations (ug/m3, max) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1: Tweed A4 LEGEND - ug/m3 EPP (Air) PM10 Air Quality Goal: 150 ug/m3 (24-hour Average) Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A7_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

26 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 Build Project - 24-hour Average PM10 Concentrations (ug/m3, max) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1: Tweed A4 LEGEND - ug/m3 EPP (Air) PM10 Air Quality Goal: 150 ug/m3 (24-hour Average) Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A8_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

27 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 No Project - 1-hour Average Formaldehyde Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1: Tweed A4 LEGEND - ppm EPP (Air) Formaldehyde Air Quality Goal: 0.07 ppm (30 - Minute Average) Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A10_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

28 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 % Change - 24-hour Average PM10 Concentrations TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1: Tweed A4 LEGEND - Percent Change Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A9_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

29 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 Build Project - 1-hour Average Formaldehyde Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1: Tweed A4 LEGEND - ppm EPP (Air) Formaldehyde Air Quality Goal: 0.07 ppm (30 - Minute Average) Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A11_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

30 TransLink Gold Coast Rapid Transit 2011 % Change - 1-hour Average Formaldehyde Concentrations (ppm, 99.9th %ile) TRANSLINK NETWORK PLAN FOR THE GOLD COAST FIGURE Logan COOMBABAH Beaudesert SURFERS PARADISE BROADBEACH Gold Coast ² 1: Tweed A4 LEGEND - Percent Change Source: TransLink Network Plan Southeast Queensland, July 2007 Date Printed: File: G:\41\16445\GIS\MAP\Draft_CDIMP\ Volume_2\Chapter 15\MXD\ Fig_A12_air_quality_rev_a.mxd

31 4. Conclusion Traffic modelling combined with pollutant emissions to air has been used to give an indication of likely changes to air quality resulting from the opening of the GCRT. This approach is based on top down modelling with the South East Queensland airshed as the top level of air quality assessment. The following conclusion can be made:» The GCRT will result in an overall decrease for all pollution types of total emissions;» All constituents modelled are below the regulated air quality goals although nitrogen dioxide is the closest to the goal under worst case conditions after allowing for realistic NOx to NO2 conversion factors.» The overall decrease reverses a proportion of the growth in traffic over the five year period between now and opening day (2011);» Changes in the average speeds for the morning and afternoon traffic peaks suggest a change to traffic congestion that is worthy of further study;» There are some areas of increased traffic impacts due to induced congestion, most notably in Southport just after the Sundale Bridge crosses the Broadwater to the north; and» Areas of interest are identified, as per the previous point, for assessing the near field impacts of induced congestion for peak hour emissions at select representative sites via the use of the approved AUSROADS line source traffic analysis model. Vol 2 Chp 15 28