The Nuclear Landscape A Snapshot of the Global Issues and Players

Transcription

1 American Association for the Advancement of Science Annual Meeting February 12th 16th, 2009, Chicago Keeping the Lights on the Revival of Nuclear Energy for our Future The Nuclear Landscape A Snapshot of the Global Issues and Players Jacques BOUCHARD Chairman of the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Advisor to the Chairman of the French CEA 1

2 World Electricity 2 Billion people have no access to electricity or to any energy network A : High growth (Income, energy, technology) B : Modest growth C : Ecologically driven growth Power cut in the North East of the USA 2003 Increase of energy needs 2

3 An increasing world nuclear electricity demand... Increasing share of nuclear electricity planned up to 50% by 2050? 3

4 Nuclear energy and climate change CO 2 emissions per kwh and shares of nuclear power and renewables in selected countries (2004) CHINA USA JAPAN FRANCE 4

5 Nuclear energy and climate change French nuclear electricity and CO2 emissions 250 Mtoe CO 2 EMISSIONS Mt CO ENERGY CONSUMPTION NUCLEAR ENERGY GENERATION

6 A Competitive Source of Energy Nuclear energy compared to gas combined cycle (2015 base load production) Natural gas price in oil barrel price equivalent 6

7 Gen II LWR : Continuous improvements The US example Increasing capacity factors (equivalent to 23 new reactors) Excellent safety performances Reduction of O&M costs Reduction of wastes quantities Reduction of exposure at work Significant Events 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 0,9 0,77 0,45 0,4 0,25 0,26 0,21 0,17 0,08 0,1 0,04 0,03 0,02 0, Fiscal Year 7

8 Generation III: further improvements EPR: European Pressurized Reactor A mature concept, based on feed-back experience of current PWRs Safety improvements EPR Olkiluoto Double-wall containment with ventilation and filtration system EPR Core melt spreading area EPR Flamanville Containment heat removal system And a second one in France Penly, (Construction date 2012) Inner refueling water storage tank Four-train redundancy for main safeguard Le projet systems EPR Significant improvements in safety (safety by design principle) 8

9 Nuclear Expansion: According to what Criteria? Countries already heavily engaged in nuclear energy would satisfy their expansion needs with Gen III systems and favour developing nuclear technologies following sustainability criteria (resource, waste, security) Fast Breeder Reactors New comer countries would mainly rely on proven designs (LWRs) Gen II or Gen III reactors but should first fulfil the necessary steps for implementation of nuclear plants Infrastructures. 9

10 Nuclear Energy Prospects in Russia 10

11 Nuclear Plants in Russia Draft roadmap for NPP unit commissioning up to 2020 (GW) 11

12 Electricity Production in INDIA 12

13 Nuclear Energy Prospects for India 13

14 Energy Supply in India 14

15 Nuclear Plants in China 15

16 Nuclear Energy Prospects in China According to the National Economic Developing Plan, energy production will have a great increase, and the nuclear energy will be 40 GWe, in operation and 18 GWe under construction, in the year of About 30 nuclear power plants will be constructed, in the next 10 years. (2005) China is considering increasing its total installed nuclear power generating capacity to 70 GW by 2020, up from an earlier target of 40 GW, according to an official from the National Energy Administration (NEA). [China Daily, 6 November 2008] 16

17 GenIV : towards sustainable nuclear energy New requirements for sustainable nuclear energy Search innovative solutions for: Waste minimisation Natural resources conservation Proliferation resistance Perform continuous progress on: Competitiveness Safety and reliability Develop the potential for new applications: hydrogen, syn-fuels, desalinated water, process heat Russia Systems marketable from 2040 onwards Members of the Generation IV International Forum USA Brazil Canada Argentina France South Africa United Kingdom Euratom Japan China South Korea Switzerland 17

18 Nuclear Countries RUSSIA Fast reactors as the key component of the innovative NFC Fast Breeder Reactors for Sustainability BN-600 (1980) BN-800 (planned for 2012) JAPAN MONJU Fast Breeder Reactor and JSFR BR-5/10 (1959) BN-350 ( ) KOREA Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (KALIMER) Mwe AHX Chimney PDRC piping IHTS piping Steam Generator IHX DHX PHTS pump Reactor core IHTS pump In-vessel core catcher 18

19 The constructions under way PFBR (India) BN 800 (Russia) CEFR (China) 19

20 Generation IV SFR prototypes MWe pool/loop France, Japan and USA plan SFR prototypes by MWe loop type SG Secondary Pump MWt pool type Primary Pump/IHX Primary Pump/IHX French Prototype Reactor Vessel Japanese Prototype (JSFR) US Prototype (ARR) An approach aiming at international harmonisation is underway : - Assure complementarity of prototypes (objectives, options, ) -Optimize related infrastructures (including fuel fabrication facilities) 20

21 Many countries considering nuclear power Operating Considering 21

22 Non limited List of New Nuclear Power Aspirants UAE Saudi Arabia Yemen Egypt Jordan Morocco Tunisia Libya Algeria Italy Turkey Poland/Latvia/Lithuania Kazakhstan Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Thailand Ghana Chile 22

23 The IAEA Milestones Document National Position Legal Framework Regulatory Framework Radiation Protection Financing Human Resource Development Safeguards Security and Physical Protection Emergency Planning Nuclear Fuel Cycle Nuclear Waste Environmental Protection Nuclear Safety Sites & Supporting Facilities Stakeholder Involvement Electrical Grid Management Industrial Involvement Procurement 23

24 Nuclear Safety - Safety is of paramount importance in all steps of nuclear energy production - It relies on technical features and human behavior - It requires continuous improvement - Transparency is a key factor - Nuclear Energy requires a Safety Authority, competent and independent from the operators 24

25 Non Proliferation Conditions fixed by several international agreements (NPT, NSG ) Needs for a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement and an Additional Protocol in force. A State System of Accounting and Control independent from both the operator and the government. Ratification of the Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and its amendments 25

26 Financial Resources A nuclear reactor represents a heavy investment, and the production cost depends on the interest rate A nuclear reactor is even more cost-effective when used for base load B.O.T. schemes are attractive (construction and operation undertaken by one investor) Co-investment with a foreign utility which has experience in operation of a nuclear fleet is a possible path to follow Interest rate 5,0% 6,5% 8,0% In /MWh Nuclear CCG Nuclear CCG Nuclear CCG Investment 13,8 5,3 16,7 6,2 19,9 7,0 Exploitation & 7,2 1,5 7,2 1,5 7,2 1,5 Maintenance Fuel 3,0 23,7 3,0 23,7 3,0 23,7 Total 24,1 30,5 26,9 31,4 30,1 32,2 26

27 Infrastructures The grid: a nuclear reactor is a local notch of high power (up to 1600 MWe), on a grid which should be appropriately adapted (meshing of high voltage lines, connection with other countries), The management of nuclear waste: a nuclear reactor produces waste of low, medium and high activity, which have to be dealt with in a specific way: intermediate storage, transportation and final disposal, The industrial network of firms involved in the development and the operation of nuclear installations 27

28 Education and training Nuclear Energy is an industry which bears risks, which, in turn, requires stringent professional behaviour (transparency, acceptance of controls): this professionalism in the operation is acquired with time and rigour Nuclear Energy has its own specific professions (safety, radioprotection, operating of a site, maintenance), and requires well trained and skilled labour from technicians and engineers Setting up of a nuclear site requires, as for all risk-bearing industry, a crisis organisation, as well as a well trained civilian security / safety staff Public Acceptance is a very sensitive issue for Nuclear Energy, which should not be underestimated. 28

29 Summary and Conclusion A larger use of nuclear energy worldwide; Most of the expansion will come from highly populated developing countries; Countries already operating large fleets of nuclear plants will increase their capacity with Gen III reactors and prepare Gen IV systems (mainly fast reactors for sustainability); Many other countries are considering the possibility of implementing nuclear energy production; These new comers will have first to develop infrastructures and to comply with international rules. 29