An Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model for the southwest Florida shelf: Results & products from MARine & EStuarine goal setting (MARES)

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "An Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model for the southwest Florida shelf: Results & products from MARine & EStuarine goal setting (MARES)"

Russell Kelly
5 years ago
Views:

1 An Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model for the southwest Florida shelf: Results & products from MARine & EStuarine goal setting (MARES) Chris Kelble, Dave Loomis, Peter Ortner, Jerry Lorenz, William Nuttle, Pamela Fletcher, and many more

MARES Project (2009-2012) reach a science-based consensus about the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is both sustainable

2 MARES Project ( ) reach a science-based consensus about the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is both sustainable and capable of providing the diverse ecosystem services upon which our society depend Who? ~50 Pis (Fed/State/Academic/NGO) ~ 24 writers (BPS HDS) What? 1. Conceptual diagrams 2. CEMS > DPSER - ICEMs 3. Indicators > Indices 4. Trade-off analysis Where? 3 new marine regions + CERP estuaries

3 Southwest Florida Sub-Areas Insert Picture from Mike Savarese

4 Conceptual Diagrams Establish Context & Consensus on Drivers/Pressures/Processes Example: Barrier Island Sub-Area with Substantial Development

EBM-DPSER: Merging ecosystem services with DPSER

from the ecosystem State quantity and quality of

phenomena (such as fish stocks) and chemical

Pressure - release of substances (emissions),

and the use of land Drivers - social, demographic and

individuals) in society, as well as government

5 EBM-DPSER: Merging ecosystem services with DPSER Ecosystem Services the benefits that humans derive from the ecosystem State quantity and quality of physical phenomena (such as temperature), biological phenomena (such as fish stocks) and chemical phenomena (such as atmospheric CO 2 concentrations) Pressure - release of substances (emissions), physical and biological agents, the use of resources and the use of land Drivers - social, demographic and economic developments Responses - by groups (and individuals) in society, as well as government attempts to prevent, compensate, ameliorate or adapt to changes in the state of the environment

6 Ecosystem Services Services and goods that people receive from the marine environment Related to attributes that people care about Have VALUE that can be measured objectively Provide input to decision-making (preserving services, maximizing utility, etc.)

7 EBM-DPSER Benefits 1. Explicit incorporation of Ecosystem Services Removes negative connotation of impacts 2. Pressure State Ecosystem Service Linkage Directly applicable to Ecosystem-Based Management (EBM) 3. Better integration with Human Dimensions Science 4. Proactive management & positive benefits of humans on the ecosystem Facilitates management for humans rather than protection from humans 5. A tool to operationalize or mainstream Ecosystem Services to inform decision-making Illuminate ecosystem service trade-offs

8 Southwest Florida Shelf EBM-DPSER Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model

9 Utility of DPSER model Indicator development to evaluate and assess the ecosystem state relative to EBM goals Holistic model of ecosystem function & state Risk Assessment Scenario/trade-off analysis to predict the likely result of a management action on all ecosystem services in concert

Ecosystem Indices Plausibility of Success Drivers, Pressures, Responses Ecosystem Services Non-economic HDS 1) Public Safety, 2) Recreation, 3) Culture, 4) Education/Informal, 5) Occupation

10 Ecosystem Indices Plausibility of Success Drivers, Pressures, Responses Ecosystem Services Non-economic HDS 1) Public Safety, 2) Recreation, 3) Culture, 4) Education/Informal, 5) Occupation Structure, 6) Aesthetics Economic HDS 1) Parks Visitation, 2) Recreational Boats, 3) Commercial Landings, 4) Insured Damage Claims State Biophysical Habitats 1) Beaches, 2) SAV, 3) Inshore Flats, 4) Coastal Wetlands, 5) Oyster Reefs, 6) Offshore Ubiquitous 1) Water column, 2) Marine Birds, 3) Fish & Shellfish

Plausibility of Success The Missing Indicators The concept: External factors that must be considered in determining the likelihood that any desired end-state will be achieved.

11 Plausibility of Success The Missing Indicators The concept: External factors that must be considered in determining the likelihood that any desired end-state will be achieved. What must also be tracked to formulate an effective adaptive strategy. POS may includes factors that either increase or decrease likelihood and typically do so over a range of management relevant time scales. They are inherently goal-specific and cut across ecosystem services. Political, Legal, Process, Demographics, Economic, Mandates The additional Information a prospective investor would or should want to know (the venture capitalist s perspective)

12 Ecosystem Function and Structure Network model based on expert opinion that quantifies the linkage between pressures, states, and ecosystem services

13 Traditional Risk Analysis - State

14 Complete Risk Assessment State Indicator Ecosystem Services State Indicator State Indicator Driver/Pressure State Ecosystem Service Matrix (SESM) Pressure Impact on State Direct Risk to State Indicator Ecosystem Service State Impact on E.S. Direct Risk to E.S. from State State Indicator Driver/Pressure State State Matrix (SSM) Ecosystem Service Pressure Ecosystem Service Matrix (PESM) Total Risk to E.S. Indirect Impact to State Pressure Impact on E.S.

15 Complete Risk Assessment (Mock-Up) Pressures with highest cumulative impact on ecosystem services 1) Altered water flow 2) Nutrients 3) Sea-level Rise 4) Invasive species 5) Altered shoreline Ecosystem services under the greatest pressure 1) Recreation 2) Food Supply 3) Property Protection 4) Aesthetics 1. This determines which pressures to reduce to gain the greatest relative increase in the continued provisioning of ecosystem services (Altered water flow) 2. Also, determines which ecosystem services are under the greatest amount of pressure and thus in need of management actions to ensure these services are consistently provided (Recreation)

16 Scenario/Trade-off Analysis Use the DPSER network model to examine impact of hypothetical management decisions on ecosystem services and state

More Information: Chris Kelble NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Chris.Kelble@noaa.gov Funding Provided By: www.sofla-mares.

17 More Information: Chris Kelble NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Funding Provided By: FACEBOOK: BLOG: Great challenges are only overcome through effective collaboration

Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on South Florida s Coastal Wetlands

Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise on South Florida s Coastal Wetlands Lynn Wingard, Debra Willard, Christopher Bernhardt USGS, Reston VA U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological