What Could New Ozone Regulations Cost North Carolina?

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1 $ What Could New Ozone Regulations Cost North Carolina? $35 Billion Gross State Product Loss from 2017 to ,919 Lost Jobs or Job Equivalents 1 per Year $260 Drop in Average Household Consumption per Year 1 Total job equivalents equal total labor income change divided by the average annual income per job. Updated 8/15. Expensive New Ozone Regulation Will Put the Squeeze on North Carolina The Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA) new ozone regulation could be the most expensive ever issued on the American public, costing the nation $140 billion annually, 2 according to a new analysis (updated in August 2015) by NERA Economic Consulting. This regulation will make it harder to get the necessary permits to manufacture goods and build critical infrastructure like roads and highways in North Carolina, while increasing the cost of energy for every business and household in the state. The picture gets even worse for the counties in the red and orange in the maps in figure 1. In these areas, manufacturers won t be able to expand without a reduction of emissions or shutdown of operations from other plants in the area. Plans for new plants and expansion at existing plants will be shelved. Federal highway funds could freeze and economic growth could grind to a halt. Figure 1: Projected Nonattainment with a 65 Parts Per Billion (ppb) Ozone Standard Areas with monitors Unmonitored but likely to exceed 65 ppb Projected Nonattainment in North Carolina (65 ppb) CA OR WA NV ID Projected 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas AZ UT MT WY NM CO ND SD NE KS OK MN IA MO AR WI IL MI IN MI TN KY OH WV SC NC VA NY PA NJ MD DE DC VT NH MA RI CT ME MS AL GA 2 This estimate only accounts for the costs and related economic impacts of bringing the country into attainment with a 65 pbb ozone standard. It does not account for any additional costs incurred by businesses complying with maintenance requirements for attainment areas. This estimate also does not account for any potential curtailment of energy production in nonattainment areas. In NERA s July 2014 report measuring a 60 ppb ozone standard, they found that a significant curtailment of natural gas production in nonattainment areas could further reduce GDP by $90 billion per year and cost an additional 1.4 million job-equivalents per year. TX LA FL Monitored CBSAs and rural counties that would be violating a 65 ppb standard Unmonitored areas that are anticipated to violate a 65 ppb standard based on spatial interpolation Projected Nonattainment in the United States (65 ppb) Based on a 3-year period, Source: URS, July 7, 2014 Source: URS

2 Cabarrus 78 Gaston 78 Iredell 78 Lincoln 78 Mecklenburg 78 Rowan 78 Union 78 Davidson 73 Davie 73 Forsyth 73 Stokes 73 Yadkin 73 Currituck 72 Gates 72 Guilford 72 Randolph 72 Rockingham 72 Franklin 71 Johnston 71 Wake 71 Camden * 70 Surry * 70 Alamance * 69 Buncombe 69 Caswell 69 Chatham 69 Cleveland * 69 Cumberland 69 Durham 69 Edgecombe 69 Granville 69

3 Haywood 69 Henderson 69 Hoke 69 Madison 69 Nash 69 Orange 69 Pasquotank * 69 Person 69 Pitt 69 Polk * 69 Rutherford * 69 Sampson * 69 Wilson * 69 Bladen * 68 Chowan * 68 Craven * 68 Dare * 68 Graham 68 Greene * 68 Halifax * 68 Harnett * 68 Hertford * 68 Northampton * 68 Perquimans * 68 Robeson * 68 Stanly * 68 Vance * 68 Warren * 68 Wayne * 68 Yancey 68 Beaufort * 67

4 Columbus * 67 Duplin * 67 Lenoir 67 Transylvania * 67 Anson * 66 Bertie * 66 Brunswick * 66 Cherokee * 66 Jones * 66 McDowell * 66 Martin 66 Mitchell * 66 Montgomery 66 Tyrrell * 66 Washington * 66 Alexander 65 Burke 65 Caldwell 65 Catawba 65 Onslow * 65 Scotland * 65 Ashe * 64 Clay * 64 Jackson * 64 Moore * 64 New Hanover 64 Pender 64 Richmond * 64 Wilkes * 64 Alleghany * 63 Avery 63

5 Hyde * 63 Macon 63 Watauga * 63 Lee * 62 Pamlico * 62 Carteret 61 Swain 58