Modelling anthropogenic heat flux in urban climate models: capturing agency

Transcription

1 School of the Built Environment and Department of Meteorology ICUC9, Toulouse, France, July 2015 Modelling anthropogenic heat flux in urban climate models: capturing agency Stefan Smith, Sue Grimmond, Helen Ward, Simone Kotthaus, Alex Björkegren Fredrik Lindberg, Leena Järvi Acknowledgments: EUf7 embrace, NERC TRUC, Met Office, UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund/ Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China /Newton Fund. Copyright University of Reading LIMITLESS POTENTIAL LIMITLESS OPPORTUNITIES LIMITLESS IMPACT Smith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 1

2 Anthropogenic Heat Flux Waste heat discharged by human activities Sources Q R - short & long wave radiation received internally Iamarino et al. (2012) Int. J. Climatology Q F,M - metabolism Q F,T transport Q F,B buildings Sinks Sensible heat Latent heat Waste water Timing of heat release Instantaneous Lagged Location of heat release Building openings: vents, windows Building materials: walls, roof Vehicles mith Smith and and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk

3 City/ Country Goals Reduce carbon emissions City design Travel to work can be reduced Solar access Building materials/standards Sources of energy Distance energy is transported (source/usage) Renewable energy Requires rapid feedback What can be stored When is the peak demand Modify energy peaks - change some behaviours mith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk

4 BACKGROUND Anthropogenic heat flux Energy released from human activities Buildings Transportation Decreasing importance/size People Buildings Total Flux W m -2 [ # 200 m x 200 m grids] London Annual Average Modelled using GreaterQF (Iamarino et al. 2012) mith Smith and and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk 3

5 Total Anthropogenic Heat Flux Can vary wildly across a large city at peak hours/days From < 10 W m -2 - residential area To > 1000 W m -2 - in the dense central business district area If we consider these values with other surface energy balance (SEB) fluxes Measurements (errors, uncertainty, measurable terms) Modelling (errors, uncertainty) Can be insignificant to the most significant term Summer residential vs winter time high latitude business district LUCY Allen et al. (2011) Lindberg et al. (2013) Annual Average Modelled using GreaterQF (Iamarino et al. (2012) Flux W m -2 [ # 200 m x 200 m grids] Smith and and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk 4

6 Decisions Individual millions made every day Impact: wide range of areas Daily operations: Building operations e.g. closing of the conference centre i.e. Work hours Acceptable temperature range Transport Building design decisions (can open windows? insulation? Encourage use of stairs?) Planning decisions (e.g. what is within the vicinity, transport networks) City (e.g. resilient systems? Energy infrastructure, Business/Industries) Country (e.g. Carbon neutral, energy infrastructure, natural resources) International (e.g. EU requirements, international agreements) Intersection of wide range of decisions made over a large range of time scales influencing wide range of spatial scales mith Smith and and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk 14

7 London: Anthropogenic Heat (W m -2 ) Iamarino et al. (2012) Int. J. Climatology Smith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk

8 Anthropogenic Heat Flux Modelling of Decisions observed/modelled weather Anthropogenic Heat Flux v2015b Smith and Grimmond Waste heat discharged by human activities Waste heat discharged by human activities Sources QR- short & long wave radiation received internally QF,M - metabolism QF,T transport QF,B buildings Interface - python Timing of heat release Instantaneous Lagged Iamarino et al. (2012) Int. J. Climatology Smith and Grimmond QF models Location of heat release Building openings: vents, windows Building materials: walls, roof Vehicles July 2015: ICUC9 BEM* Transport Human Sensible heat Latent heat Waste water s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk Timing of heat release Instantaneous Lagged Smith and Grimmond *BESTEST - TRNSYS, but can change as modular code July 2015: ICUC9 Comfort and activity as drivers by population type Iamarino et al. (2012) Int. J. Climatology Smith and Grimmond QR- short & long wave radiation received internally Sinks Agent-Based Model mmond Sources QF,M - metabolism QF,T transport QF,B buildings Sinks Sensible heat Latent heat Waste water July 2015: ICUC9 July 2015: ICUC9 Location of heat releases.t.smith@reading.ac.uk July 2015: ICUC9 Building openings: vents, windows s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk Building materials: walls, roof Vehicles s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk 19

9 Anthropogenic Heat Flux Dynamic nature of Q F Travel impacts High Activity Sources Waste heat discharged by human activities Travel impacts Combination of travel decisions also influence the QF components QRother - short &two long wave radiation received internally Low Activity e.g. time that leave work/ home QF,M - metabolism Combination of travel decisions also influence the other two QF components Energy use at both ends QF,T transport Negligible Activity e.g. time that leave work/ home How long energy remains high in the central QF,Bcity buildings Energy use at both ends energy Whenremains residential use start tocity increases Potential How long high in the central Travel impacts Transition Sinks When residential use start to increases Family structures Sensible heat Family structures Latent heat Single Combination of travelperson decisions also influence the other two QF components Single person Waste water Multiple people in household e.g. time that leave in work/ home Multiple people household impacts e.g. first one the home turns the light on Travel Energy bothturns ends e.g. firstuse oneathome light on Timing of heat release Influential factors How long energy remains high in the central city Potential Transition Instantaneous When residential use start to increases Work place expectations Work place expectations Travel impacts Combination of travel decisions also influence the other two Q F components Lagged e.g. Last one leaveone (hopefully) turns the light offturns the light off e.g.tolast to leave (hopefully) Family structures e.g. time that leavevswork/ homehours when work place operates Flexible work hours restricted Single person Flexible work hours vs restricted hours when work place operates Location of heat release Combination of use travel also influence the other two Q components Energy atdecisions both ends F Multiple people in household Building7 openings: vents, windows mith and Grimmond How long energy remains July 2015: high ICUC9in the central s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk city e.g. one home turns the light on e.g. timefirst that leave work/ home Building materials: walls, roof7 Smith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk When residential use start to increases Energy use at (2012) both endsint. J. Climatology Iamarino et al. Vehicles Work place expectations How long energy remains high in the central city Family structures Smith and ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk e.g. Last one to leaveuse (hopefully) turns thejuly light2015: off When residential start to increases Grimmond Single person

10 Urban Energy Water - Carbon How to observe QF - model comparison? Q*= K - K + L - L F CP + F CF = F CR + F CM + S C PAR Radiation Carbon S c F CP F CM F CR F CF proxy Energy Heat Oke 1987 Water Feigenwinter et al. (2012) Q*+ Q F = Q H + Q E + Q S P + I + F = E + R + S mith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk

11 Swindon: Estimate of anthropogenic emissions M Human metabolism Population data 1 Per capita emissions 2,3 B Building energy use UK fuel Consumption 5 Emission factors 2 Diurnal profile 4 V Vehicles Vehicle km in UK 6 Emission factors 2,3,5 Diurnal/weekly profiles 6 Total anthropogenic M B V λ V x forest 7 λ V x grassland 8 Observed 1 ONS; 2 Moriwaki & Kanda (2004) JAM; 3 Sailor & Lu (2004) AE; 4 Hamilton et al. (2009) B&E; 5 DECC; 6 DfT; 7 Schmid et al. (2000) AFM; 8 Flanagan et al. (2002) GCB Ward et al. ACP 2013 Smith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk

12 Emissions Workdays/non-Workdays Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Traffic Building heating building heating, traffic and human metabolism combined Ward et al. (2015) Env. Poll. mith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 10

13 Carbon Dioxide Fluxes and Emissions Central London Residential Swindon - Forest Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Ward et al. (2015) Env. Pollution mith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk

14 Building Sources Summer/Winter Occupancy: High/Low High / Low [CO 2 ] = Building vent - Tower top London Bjorkegren & Grimmond mith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk 12

15 mith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 Final Remarks observed/modelled weather ith and Grimmond v2015b BEM* Iamarino et al. (2012) Int. J. Climatology QF models Transport Human Interface - python Agent-Based Model Data Led Process *BESTEST - TRNSYS, but can change as modular code Comfort and activity as drivers by population type

16 Two PhD positions available (UK - / EU if been in UK for 3 + years) mith and Grimmond July 2015: ICUC9 s.t.smith@reading.ac.uk