THE ECONOMIST ENERGY SURVEY

Transcription

1 December 2015 THE ECONOMIST ENERGY SURVEY Attitudes and Opinions of Readers and Non-Readers

2 INSIGHTS FROM BOTH READERS AND NON-READERS 2 1,001 global Economist Insighters (readers) 550 non-reader Economist look-alikes (educated, English-fluent) from the US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Australia, PRC, India, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea provided by Toluna Exclusive questions for Millennials and Energy Experts/Enthusiasts (consider themselves experts or educated in energy issues) and Policymakers Topics covered: attitudes towards the energy industry, Millennial employment, predictions for the future of energy

3 ENERGY OUTLOOK

4 We asked energy experts and enthusiasts to tell us about their predictions for and thoughts about the industry. Both Economist readers and non-readers were surveyed to obtain a more complete picture of the future of energy. 4

5 EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS RESPONDENT PROFILE 5 58% of total survey respondents can be considered Energy Experts or Enthusiasts 11% are very familiar with the industry and consider themselves Experts 47% are Enthusiasts and consider the industry a particular and important interest 4% of total survey respondents are Energy policymakers or influencers in academia, energy, government, law, or NGOs 3% are policymakers or influencers that consider themselves Experts or Educated Sample: 895

6 STRONG BELIEF IN THE NEED FOR DEBATE EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS AGREE AMONGST THEMSELVES THAT THE ENERGY DEBATE IS BOTH VERY PRESSING AND COMPLEX 6 30% 27% 53% strongly agree the debate over energy sourcing and consumption is complicated and there is no one right answer (vs. 22% non-experts and enthusiasts) strongly agree that their government and the world s governments should do more to intervene (vs. 17% non-experts and enthusiasts) strongly agree the environmental situation due to manmade global warming is one of the biggest issues we face today (vs. 38% non-experts and enthusiasts) Sample: 895

7 92% OF ENERGY EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS AGREE SOME KIND OF INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY 7 Energy Regulations or Interventions in Favor Of Carbon tax Cap and trade Tax benefits for energy companies/ suppliers Subsidies for consumers None of these Other Sample: 895

8 BUT DISAGREE ON WHO SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOLVING THE ISSUE 8 Attitudes: Energy Debate Solutions and Policy (Energy Experts and Enthusiasts) % Strongly Agree % Agree Somewhat % Neutral % Disagree Somewhat % Strongly Disagree Developing countries should be held to the same standards as developed countries in terms of energy use per capita. Developing countries need access to cheaper energy like coal in order to grow and succeed. Governments should let market Energy companies are doing what forces "control" the energy industry. they can to find a realistic solution for our energy needs. Sample: 895

9 THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT ON ENERGY MIX, PARTICULARLY THE ROLE OF NATURAL GAS 9 Attitudes: Energy Mix (Energy Experts and Enthusiasts) % Strongly Agree % Agree Somewhat % Neutral % Disagree Somewhat % Strongly Disagree Clean, renewable energy like solar and wind power is the only responsible path for the future. Natural gas is a more reasonable next step after oil/coal compared to dropping fossil fuels altogether. Expecting the world to run on just renewable energy is overly optimistic. Sample: 895

10 10 45% of experts and enthusiasts are therefore supportive of fracking for natural gas (Only 37% say they do not support any new hydrocarbon technologies or practices including fracking, deep sea drilling, and drilling in uninhabited areas like nature reserves at all)

11 RENEWABLES AND GAS ENVISIONED AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY PROVIDERS IN 2065, REPLACING OIL AND COAL 11 Ideal energy mix in: Oil Coal Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables Sample: Energy Mix Source: BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

12 SHIFT TO BE DRIVEN BY GREATER EFFICIENCY AND INNOVATION DUE TO THE CURRENT LOW OIL PRICE 12 Renewables will become cheaper: [The low oil price will] put more pressure on renewable energies to lower their costs [in order to compete]. [The low oil price] will allow more developing economies to 'catch-up' and industrialize, but it won't be such a rat race as we've seen in the past as mature economies move beyond oil consumption towards efficient/sustainable resources. This is not because of alarms of climate change, but more an economic shift as renewable technologies are priced at level or cheaper than traditional energy sources. Energy companies will innovate: Energy companies will have no choice but to diversify their portfolio so they'll be looking to improve nuclear power solutions [and] improve solar and wind power. Longer term the stronger companies will have survived and the diversification [the low oil price] forces is natural and healthy.

13 PLANNED POLICY ALSO TARGETS THIS SHIFT, BUT IS ALSO DIRECTED AT DECREASING CONSUMPTION OVERALL 13 Policies Supported by Policymakers and Influencers ( Near Future ) Oil consumption X consumption consumption Coal consumption X consumption consumption Natural Gas consumption X consumption consumption Hydropower consumption 44 Nuclear consumption X consumption consumption Wind and Solar consumption 67 spend on clean(er) energy research and initiatives total energy consumption total energy consumption Other None of these 2 11 Sample: 45

14 HOWEVER, FEW EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS BELIEVE OIL PRICES WILL NEVER RECOVER 14 When Will Oil Prices Again Exceed $100/Barrel? or earlier or later Never Don't know/no opinion 29 8 Sample: 895

15 AND THE IDEA OF MAKING A PREDICTION ON PEAK OIL IS DAUNTING, EVEN TO EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS 15 Peak oil (the highest point of oil production, after which production will irreversibly decline) will likely occur around % agree 41% are neutral 31% disagree Sample: 895

16 KEY TAKEAWAYS 16 Energy Experts and Enthusiasts are strongly opinionated and in agreement on a number of ideas: 1. Manmade global warming is an extremely important issue to debate 2. At this point, interventions to decrease carbon emissions and energy usage overall are needed 3. There should be an overall movement away from oil and coal However, Experts and Enthusiasts are also aware that the debate is complicated, and that the right answer is nuanced: While they agree that something must be done, there is disagreement on who should be taking the lead in energy initiatives developed vs. developing nations, governments vs. the industry Also, while they see a shift to renewables over the next half-century, they are more pragmatic about the ongoing role of fossil fuels, particularly natural gas

17 DEVELOPED VS. DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

18 Respondents from developing economies are more concerned about the environmental situation (54% strongly agree vs. 45% developed respondents) and are more supportive of (global) government intervention (31% vs. 21%)

19 COAL PLAYS A BIGGER PART IN DEVELOPING EXPERTS * PROJECTIONS MEANWHILE, DEVELOPED EXPERTS FAVOR MORE SOLAR AND WIND 20 Ideal Energy Mix: 2025 Ideal Energy Mix: 2065 Developed Developing Developed Developing Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Other renew. Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Other renew. Sample: Developed = 735, Developing = 160 * Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slide 5

20 DESPITE THEIR GREATER SUPPORT FOR RENEWABLES, DEVELOPED EXPERTS* ARE LIKELIER TO SUPPORT FRACKING 21 Hydrocarbon Technologies in Favor Of Developed Developing (Hydraulic) Fracking Deep sea drilling Drilling in uninhabited areas/ natural reserves (e.g. Alaska, Greenland) None of these Sample: Developed = 735, Developing = 160 * Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slide 5

21 KEY TAKEAWAYS 22 Interestingly, respondents from developing nations say they are more worried about global warming and are more in support of governments around the world intervening in the energy industry This is likely due to the environmental situation being more visible in developing countries However, Experts and Enthusiasts in those countries tend to weigh the continued use of coal more heavily in their projections for global energy mix Experts and Enthusiasts in developing nations favor renewables more, particularly solar and wind, although they also drive support for fracking for natural gas This could indicate that Experts and Enthusiasts in developing nations tend to favor the reduction of energy consumption in general, rather than placing more burden on all countries to shift to non-coal/oil alternatives

22 MILLENNIALS

23 IN LINE WITH POPULAR BELIEF, MILLENNIALS AS A WHOLE ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RENEWABLES 24 Differing Attitudes Toward the Energy Industry (% Strongly Agree) Total Total The debate over energy sourcing and consumption is complicated and there is no one right answer. Clean, renewable energy like solar and wind power is the only responsible path for the future. My government/the world s governments should do more to regulate or intervene in the energy industry. Natural gas is a more reasonable next step after oil/coal compared to dropping fossil fuels altogether. Expecting the world to run on just renewable energy is overly optimistic. Sample: Total = 539, Readers = 308, Non-Readers = 231, Total 35+ = 1,010

24 And only 8% of total respondents believe that manmade global warming is not a priority (vs. 12% among 35+)

25 DESPITE OVERALL TRENDS, EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS* DO NOT DIFFER MUCH VS. OLDER ONES ON ENERGY MIX 26 Ideal Energy Mix: 2025 (Experts and Enthusiasts) Total Total 35+ Ideal Energy Mix: 2065 (Experts and Enthusiasts) Total Total Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Other renew. Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Other renew. Sample: Total 18-34: 309, Total 35+ = 585 * Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slide 5

26 And Millennial energy experts and enthusiasts are just as likely as older experts and enthusiasts to support fracking, although they are somewhat less likely to support deep sea drilling (38% Millennial experts and enthusiasts support deep sea drilling vs. 44% 35+)

27 IN TERMS OF INTERVENTION, MILLENNIAL EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS* ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF CONSUMER SUBSIDIES 28 Energy Regulations or Interventions in Favor Of (Experts and Enthusiasts Only) Total Total Cap and trade Carbon tax Tax benefits for energy companies/suppliers Subsidies for consumers Other None of these Sample: Total 18-34: 309, Total 35+ = 585 * Experts and Enthusiasts as defined on slide 5

28 KEY TAKEAWAYS 29 In line with popular belief, Millennials as a whole are more optimistic about the role of renewables in the future, and more concerned about global warming However, Millennial experts and enthusiasts do not differ much from their older counterparts in terms of their thoughts on energy mix, indicating that educating Millennials on the energy debate may be an opportunity for energy companies to win over members of this generation

29 ECONOMIST READERS VS. NON-READERS

30 Economist readers are, compared to non-readers: 3x as likely to believe the energy debate is nuanced (35% vs. 12% strongly agree) and 2x as likely to seek a more complex solution than renewables-only (28% vs. 14% strongly agree) 77% more likely to be very concerned about man-made global warming (55% vs. 31% strongly agree) 2.35x as likely to be strongly interested in hearing from energy companies on their points of view (40% vs. 17% strongly agree)

31 ECONOMIST READERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ENERGY EXPERTS OR TO HAVE AN ACTIVE INTEREST IN THE INDUSTRY 32 Level of Energy Expertise Readers Non-Readers Yes, I am very familiar with the industry and its issues and consider myself an expert Somewhat; I am not an expert but it is a particular and important interest of mine Somewhat; I have limited knowledge of the industry and its issues No, not at all Sample: Readers = 1,001, Non-Readers = 550

32 READERS* BELIEVE MORE IN NATURAL GAS IN THE MID-TERM AND MORE IN RENEWABLES IN THE LONG-TERM 33 Ideal Energy Mix: 2025 Ideal Energy Mix: 2065 Readers Non-Readers Readers Non-Readers Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Other renew. Oil Coal Natural gas Hydro Nuclear Other renew. Sample: Readers = 660, Non-Readers = 235 * Among Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slide 5

33 HALF OF READER EXPERTS AND ENTHUSIASTS* SUPPORT FRACKING 34 Hydrocarbon Technologies in Favor Of Readers Non-Readers (Hydraulic) Fracking Deep sea drilling Drilling in uninhabited areas/ natural reserves (e.g. Alaska, Greenland) None of these Sample: Readers = 660, Non-Readers = 235 * As defined on slides 5 and 6

34 AT THE SAME TIME, READERS* ARE MORE IN FAVOR OF INTERVENTION, DRIVEN BY MILLENNIAL READERS* 35 Energy Regulations or Interventions in Favor Of Total Readers Readers Total Non-Readers Carbon tax Cap and trade Tax benefits for energy companies/suppliers Subsidies for consumers None of these Other Sample: Total Readers = 660, Readers = 215, Total Non-Readers = 235 * Among Experts and Enthusiasts, as defined on slides 5 and 6

35 KEY TAKEAWAYS 36 Economist readers are more invested in the energy debate, and are much more interested in hearing from energy companies about their points of view They tend to consider themselves more educated about the energy industry They are more optimistic about renewables in the long-term but realize that a number of interventions and intermediate stepping stones such as fracking for natural gas are likely necessary in the interim