Collaborative Modeling in IWRM. Principles and Practices

Transcription

1 Collaborative Modeling in IWRM Principles and Practices Lisa Bourget Institute for Water Resources U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Bill Werick Independent Consultant Werick Creative Solutions

2 Agenda 1-1:05 1:05-1:40 Moderator provides introduction and information Lisa presents an overview and the principles Bill illustrates with case study examples 1:40-2:00 2:00 Q&A End 1:06 PM

3 Overview What is collaborative modeling in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)? Brief history How do you do it? Eight principles with practical illustrations Questions 1:10 PM

4 Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) AWRA (2011): Coordinated planning, development, protection, and management Water, land, and related resources Foster sustainable economic activity Improve or sustains environmental quality Ensures public health and safety Provide for sustainability of communities and ecosystems 1:08 PM

5 Collaborative Modeling in IWRM Integrated water resources management: simultaneously considers alternatives and outcomes of water management sectors that common management practices divide by State and country borders Agency mission Professional perspective Surface and groundwater Floods and droughts Irrigation and in-stream uses Phase (plan, construct, operate restore, replace) Collaborative modeling: collective development of computer model by experts, stakeholders and decision makers of system to be managed 1:09 PM

6 Addressing Water Resources Challenges Technology Tools Understand basic hydrology, ecology, economics, etc Accurately represent linkages between these areas Process Skills Understand institutional setting Develop ways to engage stakeholders Build trust Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support Integrating collaborative modeling with participatory processes to inform natural resource management decisions Helps manage conflict, promote group learning and understanding, build relationships, and ground decision-making in science leading to better decisions 1:10 PM

7 Brief history of collaborative modeling Foundational elements: Advances through integration of seemingly separate fields Changing regulatory landscape and social activism Rise of alternative dispute resolution Advances in facilitation/negotiation Technological advances 1:11 PM

8 Brief history of collaborative modeling Early Development: Potomac River basin (late 1970s): Simple simulation model and gaming Demonstrated cost-effectiveness of systematic approach vs. new reservoir National Drought Study (early 1990s): Joint decisions by multiple decision makers Advanced forms of systems analysis, public participation Integration of collaboration modeling laid foundation for Shared Vision Planning: combines public participation, systems analysis and collaborative modeling 1:12 PM

9 Brief history of collaborative modeling Other development: Related versions, different names and nuances: mediated modeling group model building participatory modeling computer-aided dispute resolution computer-aided negotiation Umbrella term: Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support Methods refined through experience, technological advancements 1:13 PM

10 Collaborative Modeling: Analogy to Single-Text Negotiating Document Water management disputes can be based in fact, values, or selfinterest A collaboratively built model is like a single-text negotiating document that Can often reduce disagreements about facts May sometimes provide a basis for trading outcomes when they are valued differently by different parties Should never be expected to persuade a party to act against self-interest 1:14 PM

11 Collaborative Modeling: Analogy to Adaptive Management Model scope defined by collaborators based on needed decisions Coded version of impact algorithms and decision framework provides the basis for adaptive management Articulate a hypothesis how will actions affect outcomes? Model it Make decisions informed by the model Monitor outcomes and if evidence dictates Refine the hypothesis Change the model Adapt the decision to the evidence if advisable 1:15 PM

12 Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices The 8 Principles: 1. Collaborative modeling is appropriate for complex, conflict-laden decision making processes where stakeholders are willing to work together. 2. All stakeholder representatives participate early and often to ensure that all their relevant interests are included. 3. Both the model and the process remain accessible and transparent to all participants. 4. Collaborative modeling builds trust and respect among parties. 5. The model supports the decision process by easily accommodating new information and quickly simulating alternatives. 6. The model addresses questions that are important to decision makers and stakeholders. 7. Parties share interests and clarify the facts before negotiating alternatives. 8. Collaborative modeling requires both modeling and facilitation skills. 1:16 PM

13 Principle 1. Collaborative modeling is appropriate for complex, conflict-laden decision making processes where stakeholders are willing to work together. Best Practices: 1. Conduct a situation (or stakeholder) assessment 2. Determine if all stakeholders are willing and able to participate. 3. Garner support of decision maker 4. Evaluate your assets and resources. 5. Evaluate progress interactively 1:17 PM

14 Is Collaborative Modeling Right for You? Not always! Know the lay of the land stakeholder assessment helps Five triage questions: 1. Can anyone imagine a solution, however uncertain or controversial, that would make everybody happy? 2. Is the planning effort likely to be subverted by lobbying or adjudication? 3. Is the necessary openness of shared vision planning in itself contrary to the interests of a major stakeholder? 4. Is water the issue or the stage for other conflicts to play out on? 5. Is the analytic team likely to use good collaborative planning techniques? 1:18 PM

15 Principle 2. All stakeholder representatives participate early and often to ensure that all their relevant interests are included. Best Practices: 1. Identify who to invite to the collaborative modeling process. 2. Define the role of the technical participants 3. Engage the public. 1:19 PM

16 Circles of Influence Modelers are in the inner circle A D A B C They must engage all affected (stakeholders) C Should include everyone who can make or break the decision B includes stakeholders other stakeholders trust (you try to deserve their trust) Experts and agency managers who represent decision makers Above A, B and C are the Decision makers they often link to everybody Modeler travels to stakeholder meetings (marina associations, etc.) Model must provide the information the decision will be based on C can move to B or even A 1:20 PM

17 Principle 3. Both the model and the process remain accessible and transparent to all participants. Best Practices: 1. Avoid technical jargon, acronyms and field-specific language. 2. Include the stakeholders in model selection and design decisions (including data, assumptions and limitations), as well as in the testing phase). 3. Select familiar or easy to learn software, and design user-friendly models. 4. Provide support to each stakeholder as needed to enable them to participate effectively. 5. Communicate limitations and uncertainties throughout model development. 6. Document the model and the process 1:21 PM

18 Do while real :: a This procedure shells out to DOS a=2.0 Unix call workstation sub1(a) Fortran 77 compiler. g95 myprog.f90 array index out of bounds conditions call sub2(a) Do Open (fn) Not For Output Enter As #1 call sub3(a) end It s no accident that computers came loaded with Solitaire 1:22 PM

19 First shared vision models were built in STELLA, a visual spreadsheet Excel Excel Nerd stuff Tension between calculation requirements and user friendliness led to STELLA-Excel hybrids More complex math introduced C++, Visual Basic routines run by macro from Excel Computer advancement allowed us to get rid of STELLA and use Excel as the central software Excel Demand Data Excel Tables and Graphs 2013

20 Principle 4. Collaborative modeling builds trust and respect among parties. Best Practices: 1. Design and execute a process where stakeholders are valued for their contributions 2. Establish a shared goal. 3. Establish ground rules for participation 4. Respect participants' time 5. Approach the project with humility 1:24 PM

21 Evolving views of public participation Public participation doesn t automatically create good governance In fact, the public that participates could often be referred to as special interests These publics have learned how to game bureaucrats required to seek public input Agency modelers can t impose fair play Need stakeholder-to-stakeholder policing 1:25 PM

22 Rules of engagement Stakeholders develop rules and enforcement mechanisms Educate, from conflict research, about how the process is undermined if participants don t behave as agreed Rules for engagement in dispute resolution are well developed Simplest starter list Golden rule do unto others as you would have them do unto you Participate don t veto by non-participation Speak truthfully, directly, respectfully Do not undermine effort (including by pursuing parallel tracks to decisions) Protect your interest, no one else is responsible for that If Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement (BATNA) is better for one participant, consider ending negotiations/modeling 1:26 PM

23 Principle 5. The model supports the decision process by easily accommodating new information and quickly simulating alternatives. Best Practices: 1. Ensure the model and modeler can accommodate rapid modifications and new alternatives, and can simulate relatively quickly 2. Encourage stakeholders to suggest alternatives, and then work with them to translate their ideas into parameters that the model can simulate 3. Encourage representatives of each interest to imagine their ideal alternative, even when it may not be feasible or ignores other interests. 1:27 PM

24 Fencepost plans, Upper Great Lakes Deliberately unacceptable rule sets, designed to maximize benefits for single interests. Current rules Compress Superior, don t worry about Michigan-Huron (MH) Maximize hydropower, don t worry about lake levels Compress MH, don t worry about Superior Solution domain How much each party can expect from the process? How much does it hurt others if you get everything you want Absent a single unifying decision metric (e.g., Benefit-cost ratio), can provide useful cost-effectiveness metrics (100% for me costs you a million, 90% for me costs you a thousand, 85% for me doesn t affect you). 1:28 PM

25 Principle 6. The model addresses questions that are important to decision makers and stakeholders Best Practices: 1. Frequently ask the team and all participants throughout the process. "Who will use the model?" and "How will it be used?" 2. Build a simple model early in the process, and then improve it over time with input from stakeholders and experts. 3. Conduct mock decision making session. 4. Integrate all the information that is needed to support the decision into the model, but no more. 1:29 PM

26 Common sense approach? Common practice is to Set objectives (very beginning) Do the research (lots of time to go) Build the model (middle of the study) Develop alternatives (latter part of the study) Evaluate the alternatives (not much time left) Try to select a best alternative (now that all the facts are known) Realize you didn t understand the objectives (oh-oh) Discover the research doesn t answer decision-makers questions (@#!?!) 1:30 PM

27 Counterintuitive approach LOSLR Study Try to make a decision in the early part of the study Argue about objectives Ask researchers whether their work will answer the questions that came up. How, exactly, do we decide? Majority? Consensus? Unanimity? WHAT exactly are we deciding (no kidding) Repeat several times 1:31 PM

28 Principle 7. Parties share interests and clarify the facts before negotiating alternatives. Best Practices: 1. Engage stakeholders in iterative model development and technical analysis to foster shared learning. 2. Use the interest and values conflicts to creatively expand the range of alternatives 1:32 PM

29 Devils Lake, North Dakota 1997 study Corps of Engineers recommends flood control measures if the benefits are greater than the costs Benefits are expected value estimates Expected Probability value In order to calculate the value of damages that pumping would eliminate, you had to estimate the probability of future flooding The USGS had done that, and had said the lake was likely to go down by itself, probably soon X $ impact 1:33 PM

30 USGS Devils Lake level projections The odds were the lake would go down Feet above sea level USGS projection 1997 on Year

31 USGS Devils Lake level projections The long shot (1 in 100) Feet above sea level Devils Lake would rise, then drop Fat chance But other experts disagreed Most likely Year

32 1 Devils Lake vs Great Salt Lake Lall compared records, paleo history, to Great Salt Lake Devils Lake Great Salt lake 1:35 PM

33 Can you decide if you don t know? Each projection came with an implied decision: If the lake was going down, do nothing If the lake was going up, build a pump and pump water from the lake into a nearby river Asked different groups what they THOUGHT was going to happen, then built decision models based on those guesses about the future Stakeholders each felt their concerns were being addressed Models showed that if the lake went down, the pump was a waste of money If the lake went up, the pump was too small to do any good, and was a waste of money Great uncertainty, robust decision 1:36 PM

34 Update what actually happened Feet above sea level Currently over 1453 feet! Devils Lake would rise, then drop The coin can t keep landing heads up Year Fat chance Most likely No kidding

35 Principle 8. Collaborative modeling requires both modeling and facilitation skills. Best Practices: 1. Choose modelers with collaborative skills and diverse modeling abilities, and choose facilitators with the ability to understand and appreciate what modeling can provide 2. Ensure you have staff with the required skills throughout the process. 1:38 PM

36 Summary Coordinative, multi-purpose IWRM goals demand approaches that bridge technical and human divides Collaborative modeling integrates participatory stakeholder processes and computer modeling, addresses both political and technical aspects Twenty years experience helps us understand what collaboratively built models can and cannot do Principles and practices encapsulate knowledge gained Collaborative modeling can help manage/mediate tough water resources disputes 1:39 PM

37 Resources and Events Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support in Water Resources: Principles and Best Practices Shared Vision Planning website: Converging Waters: Integrating Collaborative Modeling with Participatory Processes to Make Water Resources Decisions (2011; 229 pgs) Linked-in Group: Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support JAWRA Featured Collection: Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support as a Tool to Implement IWRM (pending; 2013) One-day symposium: Collaborative Modeling for Decision Support - Advancing Water Planning for 30 Years AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference, Nov 2013, Portland, OR 1:40 PM