2017>Q2. Calgary & Area. Labour Market Report

Transcription

1 2017>Q2 Applications Management Consulting Ltd. Calgary & Area Labour Market Report This Calgary and Area Labour Market Report is produced four times a year and provides results on labour market needs, shortages and issues from the perspective of employers in the Calgary Region.

2 Table of Contents Summary... 1 Calgary Economy... 1 Calgary Population... 4 Calgary Housing Market... 5 Labour Force Statistics... 7 Industry Employment... 9 Employer Survey Employer Survey - Q017 Results Survey Profile Business Activity Employment: Past Layoffs, Vacant Positions and Future Employment Recruitment Methods Recruiting Difficulties Employee Turnover Employee Retention Supplemental Questions - Focus on Technological Changes Appendix A: Survey Methodology Appendix B: Employer Survey - Q017 Occupation Results... 57

3 Summary 1 Q017 CALGARY ECONOMY SUMMARY The Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) economy is forecast to rebound with solid GDP growth of 2.3% in 2017, following a decline of 1.9% in Growth is projected to remain in the range of 2% to 3% over the next few years. Calgary Economy PAST GROWTH CURRENT GROWTH FUTURE GROWTH Following rapid annual GDP growth of nearly 6% in 2013 and 2014, the collapse in oil prices resulted in contractions of 2.8% and 1.9% in 2015 and 2016 respectively in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). The City of Calgary estimated a loss of about $4.6 billion in output between , compared to a loss of $3.8 billion during the global recession of The economic contraction that began with the collapse in oil prices is projected to end in Real GDP in the Calgary CMA is forecast to grow at a rate of 2.3% in 2017, as the energy sector gradually regains stability. 2 Nonetheless, potential growth will remain limited by uncertainties acting to restrain business and consumer confidence. Growth in the Calgary CMA is projected to pick up over the forecast horizon, primarily in response to gradual but sustained improvement in oil prices. Economic growth is expected to be driven by an increase in consumer spending, business investment, government expenditures and net exports. Calgary CMA Past GDP Growth GDP Growth Forecast 2017 Calgary CMA GDP Growth Forecast % Calgary CMA 2.3% % % % % Alberta 2.8% % 2.2% % Canada 2.9% % -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 1 Conference Board of Canada, e-data library and City of Calgary, Corporate Economics, Calgary and Region Economic Outlook, , Spring Forecast data from Calgary & Area Employment Forecast: 2017>Summer, Applications Management Consulting Ltd.

4 2 Q017 CALGARY ECONOMY SUMMARY The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is forecast to average $US49 per barrel in 2017 and close to $US50 in OIL PRICES INFLATION WEEKLY EARNINGS West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices averaged US $48 per barrel in Q017, down from US$52 the previous quarter but up from US$46 in Q016. Western Canada Select (WCS) prices, the Canadian heavy oil benchmark, averaged US$37 per barrel in the second quarter of 2017, reflecting a differential of US $11 per barrel. WTI crude is forecast to average US$48.95 per barrel in 2017 and US $49.58 per barrel in Consumer prices in Calgary rose 1.1% in June 2017 (y/y), compared to 0.4% in Alberta and 1.0% nationally. Calgary recorded price growth in seven of the eight major consumer categories, with the highest growth rates observed in recreation, education and reading and alcohol and tobacco. Transportation prices were 1.3% lower in June 2017 compared to twelve months prior, mainly a result of lower gasoline prices (-8.6%). 4 The average weekly earnings of payroll employees in the Calgary CMA decreased by $12 to $1,142 in June 2017, from $1,154 a year earlier. Calgarians in the utilities and mining and oil and gas industries had the highest average weekly earnings at $2,159 and $2,112 respectively in June 2017, while accommodation and food services employees had the lowest weekly earnings at $ WTI Prices, Quarterly Avg. (US$/bbl) Calgary Inflat. Rates June 17 (y/y) Calgary CMA Avg Weekly Earnings Q2 17 Q1 17 $48 $52 All-Items Rec., ed., & reading Alcohol & tobacco Shelter 1.1% 3.1% 2.7% 1.2% Jun 17 $1,142 Q4 16 Q3 16 $49 $45 Health & pers. care Household ops Clothing & footwear 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% May 17 $1,155 Q2 16 $46 Food Transportation -1.3% 0.2% Jun 16 $1,154 $0 $20 $40 $60-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% $0 $400 $800 $1,200 3 Baytex Energy Corp. Historical Oil Pricing and U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short Term Energy Outlook, July 11, City of Calgary, May 2017 Inflation Review, June 23, City of Calgary, Corporate Economics, Economics, Labour Market Review, May and June 2017.

5 3 Q017 CALGARY ECONOMY SUMMARY Calgary s downtown office vacancy rate reached 26.4% in Q017, and is projected to average around 29% between Q and Q020. NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET Investment in non-residential building construction in the Calgary CMA totaled $903 million in Q017, down 15.6% year-over-year. Investment in commercial projects, which made up about 70% of non-residential construction spending in Calgary, declined 16.5% y/y. Investment in Alberta declined nearly 6.0% y/y in Q017, while nationally, non-residential investment was down just 0.7%. 6 Since reaching a record peak of 32,740 beneficiaries in November 2016, the number of Calgarians receiving regular EI benefits declined for the seventh consecutive month in June 2017 to 24,910, and was also down 6.1% compared to June As of June 2017, 31% of unemployed Calgarians were receiving EI. In Alberta, total EI beneficiaries fell to 69,740 in June 2017, down 15% year-over-year. 7 As anticipated with the completion of Brookfield Place (a 1.4 msf office tower), Calgary s downtown office vacancy rate rose to 26.4% in Q017, from 23.9% the previous quarter and from 21.1% in Q016. With the anticipated completion of Telus Sky Tower in Q4 2018, Calgary s downtown office vacancy rate is forecast to average around 29% between Q and Q Inv. in Non-Res Construction Q2 17 (y/y) Calgary EI Beneficiaries Calgary Downtown Office Vac. Rates Calgary -15.6% June ,910 Q % Q % Alberta -5.8% May ,210 Q % Q % Canada -0.7% June ,250 Q % -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 0 15,000 30,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 6 Statistics Canada, CANSIM table Statistics Canada, CANSIM table Avison Young Q017 - Calgary Office Market Report. Downtown office vacancy rate forecast are pessimistic assumptions.

6 4 Q017 CALGARY POPULATION SUMMARY Calgary s population reached million in April 2017, a 0.9% increase year-over-year. Fewer than 1,000 net people migrated to Calgary in the twelve months prior to April 2017, with many discouraged by the city s higher unemployment rate. Calgary Population PAST POPULATION CURRENT POPULATION FUTURE POPULATION Calgary s population increased by just 4,360 or 0.4% from the previous year to 1,235,170 in April Natural increase accounted for all the population increase in 2016 (10,780 people), while a net 6,540 people moved away from Calgary. From 2011 to 2015, population growth in Calgary averaged 2.8% per year. In 2016, 19% of Calgary s population were aged 0-14, 71% were aged 15-64, and 10% were aged Calgary s population increased by 11,170 or 0.9% from the previous year to 1,246,340 in April Natural increase made up almost all the population increase in 2017 (10,190 people), while net migration only accounted for an additional 970 people. Calgary s largest communities in terms of population this year include Panorama Hills (25,930), Beltline (23,220), Evergreen (21,440), and Tuscany (19,660). Calgary s population is forecast to grow at a pace of around 1.8% over the period, compared to an average growth rate of 2.9% from Net migration is projected to ease over the next five years, a result of a higher unemployment rate forecast for Calgary and Alberta compared to British Columbia and Ontario. Calgary Past Pop. Growth Calgary Pop. Increase (Apr-Mar) 2017 Calgary Pop. Growth Forecast % 2.9% Total Increase 11, % % 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% Natural Increase Net Migration , % 1.8% 1.8% 0% 2% 4% 0 6,000 12,000 0% 1% 2% 9 Sources for past and current population: City of Calgary, 2016 and 2017 Civic Census Results and City of Calgary, Calgary and Region Economic Outlook, , Spring Forecast data from Calgary & Area Employment Forecast: 2017>Summer, Applications Management Consulting Ltd.

7 5 Q017 CALGARY HOUSING MARKET SUMMARY Calgary Housing Market New housing starts, typically a leading indicator of future housing market activity, rose 43% in Calgary in the first half of However, the Bank of Canada s announcement of a quarter-point interest rate hike in July, and subsequent rise in mortgage lending rates, could dampen housing starts over the second half of Calgary builders started 5,525 housing units in the first half of 2017, a 43% increase compared to 3,860 units in the first six months of In Edmonton, total housing starts were up 16% year-overyear while starts in Alberta rose 27%. Across the province, single-detached starts were a source of strength, with year-to-date increases in both Calgary (+38% to 2,016 units) and Edmonton (+22% to 2,286 units). Rebuilding efforts in Fort McMurray have also supported the increase in housing starts in Alberta. However, in July 2017, the Bank of Canada announced its first rate hike in seven years, increasing its overnight lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%. As a result, housing starts could slow in the second half of this year, as banks adjust their mortgage lending rates accordingly. Total housing starts in the Calgary CMA are forecast to slip 2.7% in 2017 to 9,000 units. New home construction is forecast to pick up in 2018 to around 10,100 units ,000 Housing Starts YTD Jun 16 YTD Jun 17 13,295 12,000 10,442 9,000 6,000 5,525 4,937 5,729 3,860 3,000 0 Calgary CMA Edmonton CMA Alberta 10 CMHC, Preliminary Housing Start Data, Released July 2017 and Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook 1, Calgary, Spring 2017.

8 6 Q017 CALGARY HOUSING MARKET SUMMARY Existing home sales in the city of Calgary rose 12% y/y in the first half of 2017, while the average sales price increased 3.1%. The average sales price of an existing home in Calgary rose 3.1% y/y to $493,201 in the first half of A 3.7% increase in the average sales price for a detached home and a 1.6% increase for an attached home was slightly offset by a 0.9% decline in the average sales price for an apartment. Overall, excess housing inventory in Calgary continued to ease over the second quarter of 2017, signaling more stable pricing in the housing market in Months of supply totaled 3.1 months in the first half of 2017, down from 3.8 months in the first six months of $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 City of Calgary Average Sales Prices for Existing Homes YTD Jun 2016 YTD Jun 2017 $567,520 $547,084 $478,453 $493,201 $402,748$409,026 $303,816$301,115 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Total Detached Apartment Attached City of Calgary Existing Home Sales Q017 Q Q Q Q016 6,155 4,167 3,802 4,793 5, ,500 5,000 7,500 Existing home sales in the city of Calgary totaled 6,155 units in the second quarter of 2017, up 7.7% from 5,717 sales in the second quarter of Year to date June 2017, total existing home sales reached 10,322 units, a 12% increase compared to the first six months of Attached home sales were up 13% year-over-year to the end of June 2017, while detached home and apartment sales increased 13% and 8.6% respectively Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), Monthly Statistics Package, City of Calgary, June Ibid.

9 7 Q017 LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS SUMMARY Calgary s labour market continued to improve in Q017 with the unemployment rate easing to 9.2% and employment up 3.6% y/y. PARTICIPATION EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT Calgary s labour force participation rate continued to rise to an average of 74.9% in Q017, from 74.6% the previous quarter and 72.9% year-over-year. Men had a higher labour force participation rate (79.4%) than women (69.5%) in Q017, while the participation rate for Calgarians aged (89.4%) was higher than for youth aged (64.8%) and adults aged 55+ (48.8%). The participation rate is the number of persons employed, or unemployed but looking for a job, divided by the total working-age population. In the second quarter of 2017, employment in the Calgary CMA increased by 9,000 or 1.1% from the previous quarter and by 28,600 or 3.6% yearover-year. June 2017 marked the twelfth consecutive month of employment increases in Calgary. Employment in the Calgary CMA is forecast to increase by 1.1% in 2017, translating into approximately 9,200 net new jobs. 13 Calgary s unemployment rate eased slightly to an average of 9.2% in Q017, from 9.5% the previous quarter but was up from 8.7% in Q016. Calgary had the highest average unemployment rate among major metropolitan areas in Canada in Q017, followed by Saskatoon and St. John s NL (8.2%) and Edmonton (8.0%). Victoria s unemployment rate was the lowest at 3.9%. Canada s unemployment rate averaged 6.6% in Q017. Calgary Labour Force Survey Stats Q017 Q Q016 Participation Rate 74.9% 74.6% 72.9% Employment Rate 68.0% 67.5% 66.6% Unemployment Rate 9.2% 9.5% 8.7% Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM table Labour Force Statistics 13 Forecast data from Calgary & Area Employment Forecast: 2017>Summer Applications Management Consulting Ltd.

10 8 Q017 LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS SUMMARY TYPE OF WORK GENDER AGE Year-over-year, employment in the Calgary CMA rose by 28,600 or 3.6% in the second quarter of The number of Calgarians working part-time rose to an average of 154,200 in Q2 2017, up 9.4% (+13,300) yearover-year. Women accounted for all the increase in parttime work (+20.4% or +17,800), offset by a decrease in part-time work among men. Full-time employment increased 2.5% (+16,300) on the year in Q017, with men accounting for the majority of the gains (+3.5% or +13,100). Employment growth among Calgary women continued to be strong in Q017, increasing 5.8% (+21,000) year-over-year. The 2.0% rise in employment among men (+8,600) supplemented the gains among women. Overall, the unemployment rate for men averaged 9.8% in the second quarter of 2017, while the unemployment rate for women averaged 8.4%. Men aged years had the highest unemployment rate in the second quarter at 16.6% while women aged years had the lowest unemployment rate at 7.3%. Employment among Calgarians aged years declined 2.0% (-1,900) on the year in the second quarter of 2017, the only major age category to record a loss. Employment increased 3.1% (+17,800) among Calgarians aged years and 10.2% (+13,600) among older adults aged 55+ years. In the second quarter of 2017, 11% of all employed Calgarians were aged years, 71% were aged years and 18% were aged 55+ years. Annual Change in Employment by Occupation, Calgary, Q017 Trades, transport & equipment operators Management Educ., law & social, community & govt. services Business, finance & administration Sales & service 10,400 9,400 8,700 8,500 7,700 Natural resources & agriculture Art, culture, recreation & sport 1, Manufacturing & utilities Health -1,200-1,300 Natural & applied sciences -14,300-18,000-12,000-6, ,000 12,000 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table , Employment by CMA based on 2011 Census boundaries and National Occupational Classification (NOC), three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality.

11 9 Q017 INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY Industry Employment These are the industries that posted the greatest change in employment in the Calgary CMA and Alberta in Q017 (y/y). Calgary CMA Highlights Transportation & Warehousing Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Mining & Oil & Gas +15,000 jobs +14,300 jobs -14,700 jobs -10,600 jobs Alberta Highlights Health Care & Social Assistance Educational Services Construction Other Services +13,800 jobs +10,400 jobs -17,400 jobs -4,600 jobs 2018 Forecast Change in Employment by Industry, Calgary CMA All industries Health & Social Assistance Public Administration Education Manufacturing Transportation Accom. & Food Services Other Services Prof. Scientific & Tech. Services Mining & Oil & Gas Fin. Ins. & Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Construction 0.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Forecast data from Calgary & Area Employment Forecast: 2017>Summer, Applications Management Consulting Ltd.

12 10 Q017 Employer Survey SUMMARY Survey Results: 200 medium-sized employers with employees were surveyed in Q017. PAST GROWTH FUTURE GROWTH LAYOFFS On balance, 15% of employers reported that their company downsized in the 12 months prior to their survey (19% said they expanded and 34% said they downsized), compared to Q016 when 24% of employers on balance reported a business downsize. Results varied by industry with 8 of 10 industries on balance reporting business downsizing. On balance, 17% of employers anticipate a business expansion in the 12 months following their survey (26% anticipate an expansion and 9% anticipate a downsize), up significantly from the Q016 results when 1% of employers on balance anticipated a business expansion. All 10 industries on balance anticipate a business expansion in the next 12 months. Twenty-one per cent of employers reported that their company laid off workers in the 3 months prior to their survey, down from 33% in Q Overall, employers reported about 193 people were laid off, representing a layoff rate of 1.4%, down from 3.1% in Q016. The highest number of layoffs were reported in the construction, mining and oil and gas and wholesale and retail trade industries. Q2 Business Expansion Q2 Anticipated Business Expansion Q2 Layoffs % -15% 0% 15% 30% % 10% 20% 30% % 10% 20% 30% 40%

13 11 Q017 SUMMARY The most frequently reported vacant positions were community and social service workers, technical sales specialists, light duty cleaners, shippers and receivers, and nontechnical sales representatives. The positions employers reported the most difficulty recruiting were cooks and technical sales specialists. The positions employers reported had the highest voluntary turnover were community and social service workers and construction trades helpers and labourers. Seventy-one per cent of employers reported approximately 856 employees left as a result of voluntary turnover in the 12 months prior to their survey. Overall, the voluntary turnover rate was 6.3%. PAST RECRUITMENT FUTURE RECRUITMENT PAST TURNOVER FUTURE TURNOVER Employers were asked if they had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months prior to their survey. Twenty-eight per cent of employers reported difficulty recruiting, up from 23% in Q016. Employers were asked if they anticipate having more, less or the same difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months following their survey. On balance, 3% anticipate more difficulty compared to 16% anticipating less difficulty in Q016. Employers were asked if they had any voluntary turnover in the 12 months prior to their survey. Seventy-one per cent of employers reported voluntary turnover, unchanged from the Q016 results. Employers were asked if they anticipate voluntary turnover will be higher, lower or the same in the 12 months following their survey. On balance, 1% anticipate employee turnover will be lower over the next year. Q2 Past Difficulty Q2 Future Difficulty Q2 Past Turnover Q2 Future Turnover % 30% 60% % 0% 20% 40% % 50% 100% % -10% 0%

14 12 Q017 SUMMARY Employers reported career and classified websites was the most successful recruitment method in the 12 months prior to their survey. Most Successful Recruitment Methods Career and classified websites Word of mouth/employees referrals Company website/internal postings Social media 7% Employment agencies 6% Colleges/universities 3% Industry associations 3% Walk-ins/unsolicited resumes 3% Rehires 3% Newspapers 1% Job fairs 1% Unsure 2% Did not hire in past 12 months 8% 11% 21% 33% Employers reported that providing a job in this economy was the most successful employee retention strategy in the 12 months prior to their survey. Most Successful Employee Retention Strategies Providing a job in this economy Competitive salary Competitive benefits package 8% Flexible work measures 7% Excellent management/supervision 6% Positive work environment 5% Learning/growth opportunities 5% Company culture 5% Excellent communication 4% Perks 3% Interesting/challenging work 3% Cash bonuses 3% Reward and recognition programs 3% Employee engagement 3% Other 5% Unsure 9% Nothing 5% 11% 20%

15 13 Q017 SUMMARY Overall, two-fifths of the employers reported they have implemented or adopted technological changes in the past two years. Yes No Unsure Implemented technological changes in past two years Overall Construction Manufacturing Fin. Insur. Real Est. & Leasing Health Care & Social Assistance Mining & Oil & Gas Accomm. & Food/Arts & Ent. Professional Scientific & Tech. Wholesale & Retail Trade Other Transportation & Warehousing 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Overall, one-third of employers have a plan to implement or adopt technological changes in the next two years. Yes No Unsure Plan to implement technological changes in the next two years Overall Professional Scientific & Tech. Wholesale & Retail Trade Health Care & Social Assistance Transportation & Warehousing Mining & Oil & Gas Construction Manufacturing Other Fin. Insur. Real Est. & Leasing Accomm. & Food/Arts & Ent. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

16 14 Q017 Survey Results: Medium-sized employers with employees Employer Survey - Q Results The purpose of the quarterly survey is to gather information from Calgary and area employers on their recruitment and retention practices and various other employment issues they are facing. Over the course of the year, employers will be divided into four categories based on the number of employees in the company and results of the survey will be reported on as follows: Q1 2017: Large-sized companies with 100+ employees Q017: Medium-sized companies with employees Q3 2017: Small-sized companies with employees Q4 2017: Micro-sized companies with <10 employees Survey Profile The 200 medium-sized employers surveyed employ approximately 13,688 people. Of this total, 79 per cent are full-time employees, 6 per cent are part-time employees, and 15 per cent are either contract, seasonal, casual, temporary or relief staff. How many people does your company employ in the Calgary region? Industry Total Employees Number of Companies Mining & Oil & Gas 1, Construction 1, Manufacturing 1, Wholesale & Retail Trade 1,440 Transportation & Warehousing 1, Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1, Health Care & Social Assistance 1, Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 1, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 1, Other 1, Total 13, Other represents companies in any of the following industries: agriculture, utilities, information & culture, management of companies, administrative & support services, educational services, other services or public administration.

17 Business Activity 15 On balance, 15 per cent of the employers said their company downsized in the last 12 months. Nineteen per cent of the employers surveyed in Q017 reported their company expanded in the 12 months prior to their survey and 34 per cent said their company downsized, resulting in a negative balance of 15 per cent. 14 In Q2 2016, 17 per cent of the employers reported they expanded and 41 per cent said they downsized, for a negative balance of 24 per cent. On balance, 20 per cent of the health care and social assistance employers and 5 per cent of the transportation and warehousing employers said they expanded in the past year - the only industries to record positive results. In contrast, 35 per cent of the mining and oil and gas employers and 30 per cent of the manufacturing employers reported they downsized. Past Business Activity Percentage of companies that expanded or downsized in the 12 months prior to their survey Q016 Q017 Expanded Downsized Balance Expanded Downsized Balance Overall Results 17% 41% -24% 19% 34% -15% Results by Industry Mining & Oil & Gas 5% 75% -70% 20% 55% -35% Construction 5% 55% -50% 25% 50% -25% Manufacturing 10% 50% -40% 5% 35% -30% Wholesale & Retail Trade 20% 40% -20% 10% 35% -25% Transportation & Warehousing 25% 35% -10% 20% 15% 5% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 14% 62% -48% 25% 40% -15% Health Care & Social Assistance 35% 15% 20% 25% 5% 20% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 10% 10% 0% 15% 30% -15% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 25% 35% -10% 20% 40% -20% Other 20% 30% -10% 20% 30% -10% 20%% 10%% 0%%!10%%!20%%!30%%!40%%!50%% Has$your$company$expanded$or$downsized$ $in$the$last$12$months?$ Expanded% Downsized% Balance%!24%% Q2%2016%!15%% Q2%2017% Comments We are expanding right now. - Construction It has been status quo. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing We downsized in April of Manufacturing About a year ago we downsized. - Mining & Oil & Gas We bought another company. - Mining & Oil & Gas 14 Percentage of employers reporting a business expansion minus percentage of employers reporting a business downsize.

18 16 We have one less preschool class, which I think is due to the financial situations of parents. The downturn is hitting families now. - Other We downsized [in May] of last year. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We went through both expansion and downsize, so in the end we've remained about the same. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We have downsized our working hours. - Transportation & Warehousing We've had some routes shut down and others start up, so overall we're about the same. - Transportation & Warehousing We downsized, but in the last probably three months we have expanded. - Transportation & Warehousing We have remained fairly consistent. - Transportation & Warehousing We have drastically downsized. - Wholesale & Retail Trade We've expanded because of new projects. - Wholesale & Retail Trade On balance, 17 per cent of the employers anticipate a business expansion in the next 12 months. Employers are more optimistic about the next 12 months than they were in Q016. Twentysix per cent of the employers anticipate their company will expand in the 12 months following their survey and 9 per cent anticipate their company will downsize, for a positive balance of 17 per cent. 15 In Q016, 20 per cent anticipated an expansion and 19 per cent anticipated a downsize, for a balance of 1 per cent of the employers anticipating an expansion. On balance, all the industries anticipate a business expansion in the next year. Forty-five per cent of the professional, scientific and technical services employers and 25 per cent of the transportation and warehousing employers anticipate a business expansion in the next 12 months, a significant improvement from the Q016 results when 10 per cent of the professional, scientific and technical service employers and 5 per cent of the transportation and warehousing employers anticipated a business downsize. In addition, 20 per cent of the mining and oil and gas employers anticipate a 30%# 20%# 10%# 0%# %10%# %20%# Do#you#an(cipate#a#business#expansion#or# downsize#in#the#next#12#months?# Expansion# Downsize# Balance# 1%# Q2#2016# 17%# Q2#2017# 15 Percentage of employers anticipating a business expansion minus percentage of employers anticipating a business downsize.

19 17 business expansion, compared to 30 per cent anticipating a business downsize when surveyed in Q Future Business Activity Percentage of companies that anticipate an expansion or downsize in the 12 months following their survey Q016 Q017 Expansion Downsize Balance Expansion Downsize Balance Overall Results 20% 19% 1% 26% 9% 17% Results by Industry Mining & Oil & Gas 10% 40% -30% 35% 15% 20% Construction 30% 15% 15% 15% 10% 5% Manufacturing 10% 20% -10% 30% 10% 20% Wholesale & Retail Trade 15% 25% -10% 20% 15% 5% Transportation & Warehousing 20% 25% -5% 30% 5% 25% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 24% 33% -10% 50% 5% 45% Health Care & Social Assistance 45% 5% 40% 15% 0% 15% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 15% 5% 10% 10% 5% 5% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 20% 15% 5% 25% 10% 15% Other 15% 10% 5% 25% 10% 15% Comments I expect a little bit of expansion. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We will continue downsizing. We've got to get this economy moving because there's no work out there. - Construction We expect a very modest expansion. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing There will be a small amount of expansion. - Manufacturing I think it's going to be flat. - Manufacturing There's no room for us to expand in this building, so we are just maintaining in terms of the facility. However, we are maximizing what we can do in this space. In terms of labour, we are adding more people to the second shift. - Manufacturing We just had a merger approved today so we will be bigger as we find synergies and start hiring more. - Mining & Oil & Gas We will be expanding by maybe 15 people. - Mining & Oil & Gas We're going through a merger right now. - Other We may downsize due to economic conditions. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services That's a complete unknown because it depends on the economy. - Transportation & Warehousing A lot of downsizing has happened before. We are only beginning to see a glimmer of light these past two months. - Wholesale & Retail Trade With the way our economy and our business is going, I expect more downsizing could happen. - Wholesale & Retail Trade

20 18 Employment: Past Layoffs, Vacant Positions and Future Employment Twenty-one per cent of the employers laid off workers in the three months prior to their survey. Twenty-one per cent of the employers reported they laid off workers in the three months prior to their survey (for reasons other than seasonality). This is a significant improvement compared to the Q016 results, when onethird of the employers said they laid off workers. Forty-five per cent of the mining and oil and gas employers and 30 per cent of the wholesale and retail trade and construction employers reported they laid off workers, down slightly from the previous year s results. The most dramatic improvement this year was among professional, scientific and technical Percentage)of)companies)that)laid)off) employees)in)the)three)months)prior)to)survey) Overall# Mining#&#Oil#&#Gas# Wholesale#&#Retail#Trade# Construc<on# Manufacturing# Professional,#Scien<fic#&#Tech.# Other# Health#Care#&#Social#Assistance# Fin.,#Insur.,#Real#Est.#&#Leasing# Transporta<on#&#Warehousing# Accomm.#&#Food/Arts#&#Ent.# Q2#2017# services employers, with 20 per cent reporting they laid off employees, compared to 62 per cent in Q None of the transportation and warehousing and accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers said they laid off workers in the previous three months, a significant yearover-year improvement for transportation and warehousing employers. The percentage of employers reporting they laid off workers increased year-over-year among other and health care and social assistance employers. Overall, employers reported about 193 people were laid off, representing a layoff rate of 1.4 per cent. This is a significant improvement compared to the Q016 results when employers reported 442 people were laid off, representing a layoff rate of 3.1 per cent. The mining and oil and gas (3.5 per cent), construction (3.2 per cent) and wholesale and retail trade (3.1 per cent) industries had the highest layoff rates in Q017, while accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment and transportation and warehousing employers reported no layoffs. Additional details on layoffs can be found in Appendix B. 0%# 0%# Q2#2016# 21%# 30%# 30%# 25%# 20%# 20%# 20%# 15%# 45%# 0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50%# 60%# 70%#

21 19 Number of Layoffs and Layoff Rates (in the three months prior to survey) Industry Q016 Q017 Total Layoffs Layoff Rate Total Layoffs Layoff Rate Mining & Oil & Gas 92 Construction 60 Wholesale & Retail Trade 3 Manufacturing 65 Other 45 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 11 Health Care & Social Assistance 8 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 105 Transportation & Warehousing 48 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 5 Total 442 Layoff rate is the number of layoffs as a percent of total employment. Note: Some employers did not specify which occupations. 6.6% % % % % % 6 0.6% 8 8.6% 6 3.4% 0 0.3% 0 3.1% % 3.2% 3.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Comments We laid off about 10 electricians. - Construction We laid off five drywallers. - Construction The 20 layoffs were electricians. - Construction Previously we laid off more people, but just in the last three months we only laid off one. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Never. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We have cut hours due to shortage of work, but no layoffs. - Transportation & Warehousing A lot of our people work on an on call basis, so we don't have to lay them off during slow times. - Transportation & Warehousing We just did some layoffs last week, about 30 people in the Calgary market. - Wholesale & Retail Trade We laid off a few people in the last 3 months. That's an improvement compared to the beginning of this year and last year, when we had to let more people go. - Wholesale & Retail Trade No, but we have laid off some people in other provinces. - Wholesale & Retail Trade

22 20 Nearly half of the employers had 300 vacant positions that needed to be filled. Overall, 49 per cent of the employers reported they had vacant positions that needed to be filled at the time of their survey, up from 34 per cent in Q016. Seventy per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers and 65 per cent of the professional, scientific and technical services employers had vacant positions, compared to 35 per cent of the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, transportation and warehousing and manufacturing employers. Percentage)of)companies)with)vacant)posi3ons) that)needed)to)be)filled)at)3me)of)survey) Overall$ Accomm.$&$Food/Arts$&$Ent.$ Professional,$Scien;fic$&$Tech.$ Health$Care$&$Social$Assistance$ Other$ Wholesale$&$Retail$Trade$ Construc;on$ Mining$&$Oil$&$Gas$ Fin.,$Insur.,$Real$Est.$&$Leasing$ Transporta;on$&$Warehousing$ Manufacturing$ Q2$2017$ Employers reported they had 300 vacancies that needed to be filled at the time of their survey, resulting in an overall vacancy rate of 2.1 per cent. Vacancy rates ranged from a high of 3.2 per cent in the construction industry and 2.9 per cent in the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment industry to a low of around 1.0 per cent in the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing and mining and oil and gas industries. Additional details on vacant positions can be found in Appendix B. Number of Vacant Positions and Vacancy Rates Q2$2016$ 49%$ 70%$ 65%$ 60%$ 50%$ 50%$ 45%$ 40%$ 35%$ 35%$ 35%$ 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ 60%$ 70%$ 80%$ Industry # of Vacant Positions Total Employees Vacancy Rate # of Vacant Positions Total Employees Vacancy Rate Construction 10 1, % 48 1, % Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 39 1, % 42 1, % Wholesale & Retail Trade 24 1, % 37 1,44.5% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 15 1, % 37 1, % Health Care & Social Assistance 31 1, % 37 1, % Other 18 1, % 28 1, % Transportation & Warehousing 27 1, % 22 1, % Manufacturing 14 1, % 24 1, % Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 14 1, % 12 1, % Mining & Oil & Gas 5 1, % 13 1, % Total , % , % Vacancy rate is the number of vacant positions divided by all positions (vacant and occupied) Q016 Q017 Comments We need to hire at least another 10. We have already hired 30 people in the last two months. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We are always looking for people in the restaurant and front desk. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We are always looking for wait staff. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

23 21 We are always in need of Class 1 truck drivers in the Calgary area. - Construction The positions are not advertised, but we are looking for one or two lawyers. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing We are looking for one full-time social worker and maybe four part-time front line staff. - Health Care & Social Assistance We are always accepting resumes for shop hourly positions from qualified candidates on our website. - Manufacturing We are hiring about 5 to 10 people every month in the shipping department. That area has very high attrition. - Manufacturing We are hiring in the field, but not here at head office in Calgary. - Mining & Oil & Gas Our hiring for safety training instructors is ongoing. - Other We are looking for about 10 web developers and four data analysts. - Other We are looking for two junior project engineers right now. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We are always hiring for drivers. - Transportation & Warehousing In Calgary, we only have one position open and it's in IT. - Wholesale & Retail Trade We are always looking for sales or service people. If someone came in with great qualifications we would hire them even if we don't have an empty position. We need sales reps. - Wholesale & Retail Trade On balance, 10 per cent of the employers anticipate employment in their company will increase over the next three months. Once any current vacant positions are filled, 17 per cent of the employers anticipate employment in their company will increase over the next three months, 7 per cent anticipate employment will decrease, and 76 per cent anticipate employment will stay about the same, for a positive balance of 10 per cent. 16 Results were similar in Q016 when 9 per cent of the employers on balance anticipated employment would increase. 20%# 15%# 10%# 5%# 0%# &5%# &10%# &15%# Do#you#an(cipate#employment#will#increase,## decrease#or#stay#the#same#in#the#next#3#months?# Increase# Decrease# Balance# 9%# 10%# Q2#2016# Q2#2017# 16 Percentage of employers that anticipate employment in their company will increase in the next three months minus the percentage of employers that anticipate employment will decrease.

24 22 Professional, scientific and technical services employers are the most positive about future employment levels, with 35 per cent on balance anticipating an increase in employment in the three months following their survey, compared to 5 per cent anticipating an increase in employment when surveyed in Q016. In addition, 20 per cent of the transportation and warehousing employers anticipate employment will increase. Mining and oil and gas, wholesale and retail trade, health care and social assistance, and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing employers on balance anticipate employment will be about the same in the next three months. Future Employment Percentage of companies that anticipated an increase or decrease in total employment in the 3 months following their survey Q016 Q017 Increase Decrease Balance Increase Decrease Balance Overall Results 19% 10% 9% 17% 7% 10% Results by Industry Mining & Oil & Gas 5% 30% -25% 20% 20% 0% Construction 30% 5% 25% 20% 5% 15% Manufacturing 20% 15% 5% 15% 10% 5% Wholesale & Retail Trade 5% 20% -15% 10% 10% 0% Transportation & Warehousing 25% 15% 10% 20% 0% 20% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 14% 10% 5% 35% 0% 35% Health Care & Social Assistance 45% 0% 45% 5% 5% 0% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 30% 0% 30% 20% 5% 15% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 10% 10% 0% 5% 5% 0% Other 5% 0% 5% 20% 5% 15% Overall, in the three months following their survey, employers anticipate employment will increase by 199 and decrease by 197, for a net employment increase of 2 people. Construction and professional, scientific and technical services employers anticipate a net employment increase of 27 and 26 people respectively. Employers in the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment, wholesale and retail trade, and mining and oil and gas industries anticipate a net employment decrease. Additional details on anticipated changes in employment can be found in Appendix B. Anticipated change in employment over the next three months Industry Increase # Decrease # Net # Construction Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Transportation & Warehousing Other Manufacturing Health Care & Social Assistance Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment Wholesale & Retail Trade Mining & Oil & Gas Total

25 23 Comments Our season ends starting in September, so we will decrease by 70 employees. We won't rehire those people until April. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment Unless we're seeing a major drop off in activity, I expect total employment to remain the same. - Construction Our employment level goes up and down, but we usually find it's better to work our current employees overtime than to hire more people. - Construction We will be hiring 20 heavy equipment operators soon because of the industry we're in. - Construction Hopefully we can find five more Class 1 truck drivers. - Construction We will decrease by about two customer service representatives. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing There will be about three accountant positions opening up in the next two to three months. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing We are under financial restraints, so we won't fill positions as they may become available due to attrition. - Health Care & Social Assistance We expect to hire two more community disability support workers. - Health Care & Social Assistance We will possibly have to decrease by four labourers. - Manufacturing We will be letting about three salespeople go. - Manufacturing We will require an additional 15 people in our shipping department. - Manufacturing We will be laying off two executive level employees, one director level employee and two administrative and clerk employees. - Mining & Oil & Gas There will be a decrease of approximately 14 drillers. - Mining & Oil & Gas We will require two journeymen in instrumentation. - Mining & Oil & Gas We will decrease by 40 to 50 employees. - Mining & Oil & Gas We will decrease by about 14 seasonal grounds staff. - Other I may need two part-time teachers to work as one-on-one aides for children with learning disabilities. - Other There will be an increase of about five sales staff and 15 part time operational staff. - Other In the next six months it will start to increase, but in the three month short term I expect total employment to remain the same. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

26 24 There will be a slight increase of maybe five CAD technologists and surveyors. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We may hire a couple of engineers. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We could use about 10 more drivers. - Transportation & Warehousing We may have one warehouse position coming up. - Transportation & Warehousing We will hire five additional people in sales. - Transportation & Warehousing We expect to decrease by about 15 in the warehouse. - Wholesale & Retail Trade We need another mechanic. - Wholesale & Retail Trade Recruitment Methods Career and classified websites was the most successful recruitment method over the last 12 months. Organizations use a variety of methods to recruit workers. Employers were asked to specify the recruitment method that was the most successful over the last 12 months. Career and classified websites was the most successful, reported by one-third of the employers, followed by word of mouth/ employee referrals (21 per cent) and company website/internal postings (11 per cent). Seven per cent of employers said social media was the most successful recruitment method. Comments I think the most successful would be industry advertising on specific websites for golf. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We are not focusing on one but on several recruitment avenues. Despite that, our most successful is employment agencies. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment I think Kijiji ads are the most effective. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment The recruitment sites like Indeed are best. - Construction Word of mouth through people in the field who know people who are looking for work. We've tried advertising, but that's not nearly as successful. - Construction We recruit through the Calgary Sun newspaper. - Construction Most%successful%recruitment%method%over%the% last%12%months% Career#and#classified#websites# Word#of#mouth/employees#referrals# Company#website/internal#posHngs# Social#media# Employment#agencies# Colleges/universiHes# Industry#associaHons# WalkCins/unsolicited#resumes# Rehires# Newspapers# Job#fairs# Unsure# Did#not#hire#in#the#last#12#months# 11%# 7%# 6%# 3%# 3%# 3%# 3%# 1%# 1%# 2%# 8%# 21%# 33%# 0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%#

27 25 We usually recruit directly through universities. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing We utilize recruiting consultants. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing There's a not for profit website we use. - Health Care & Social Assistance We actually utilize a lot of educational centres. For health care aides we contact Bow Valley College. We do get practicum students from various organizations, such as the U of C, MRU, BVC and Columbia College. We will send information about our positions to schools to advertise for us. - Health Care & Social Assistance If we hire at all, we go through a temp agency. We're a manufacturing business, so if we need more employees due to orders we hire temps. When we get more long term contracts we turn temps into permanent employees. - Manufacturing We use the Job Bank. - Manufacturing We contact people who were previously laid off. If there's a position we can't fill that way, we will just contact a temp agency. - Manufacturing Word of mouth. I have a lot of long term employees. The staff here average about 14 years with the company. There's a number of people our current employees know, such as their relatives and friends, who are looking for work in our production facility. - Manufacturing LinkedIn. - Mining & Oil & Gas There are a lot of qualified people in the market right now, so it's reaching out to candidates on LinkedIn and our recruiters advertising our jobs on social media. - Mining & Oil & Gas The industry specific job boards are the most successful. - Other I have hired three new people to my sub list next fall and every one of them was referred by my current staff. - Other We post on university career sites, usually U of A, U of C, and Queen's. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We just post on Indeed and that's more than enough in this kind of economy. We are getting tons of quality and quantity of applicants right now. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services If we can we rehire previous employees back. Otherwise we use word of mouth because we've been in the industry a long time so we know lots of people. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We appeal directly to universities in Calgary and Edmonton, and sometimes in Regina and Saskatoon. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services I would say it's just people coming to drop off their resumes. - Transportation & Warehousing We prefer to hire using employee referrals. - Wholesale & Retail Trade Word of mouth and walk-ins. - Wholesale & Retail Trade

28 Recruiting Difficulties Twenty-eight per cent of the employers reported having difficulty recruiting qualified employees. Overall, 28 per cent of the employers said they had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months prior to their survey, up from 23 per cent in Q016. Half of the other employers and 45 per cent of the wholesale and retail trade employers had difficulty recruiting qualified employees, compared to only 5 per cent of the mining and oil and gas employers. The 56 employers that reported having difficulty recruiting were also asked to specify 0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50%# 60%# the occupations that were the most difficult to fill. The top two reported occupations were cooks (7 per cent) and technical sales specialists - wholesale trade (7 per cent). Comments 26 NOC Code Occupation Our culinary positions are difficult to fill. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment It's hard to fill our housekeeping roles. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment For certain positions recruiting is difficult, especially for experienced door technicians because they're rare. - Construction It can be hard to find plumbers. - Construction Percentage)of)companies)that)had)difficulty) recrui6ng)in)the)12)months)prior)to)survey) Overall# Other# Wholesale#&#Retail#Trade# Accomm.#&#Food/Arts#&#Ent.# ConstrucCon# Health#Care#&#Social#Assistance# Manufacturing# Professional,#ScienCfic#&#Tech.# TransportaCon#&#Warehousing# Fin.,#Insur.,#Real#Est.#&#Leasing# Mining#&#Oil#&#Gas# Q2#2017# What occupations have been the most difficult to fill? 5%# Q2#2016# 28%# 50%# 45%# 40%# 35%# 30%# 25%# 20%# 15%# 15%# Employers % 6322 Cooks 7% 6221 Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade 7% 7321 Automotive service technicians, truck & bus mechanics& mechanical repairers 4% 7272 Cabinetmakers 4% 4212 Community and social service workers 4% 0711 Construction managers 4% 7521 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 4% 2233 Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians 4% 2171 Information systems analysts and consultants 4% 6731 Light duty cleaners 4% 7511 Truck drivers 4% 6345 Upholsterers 4% Note: 56 employers reported having difficulty recruiting qualified employees. Some employers did not specify which occupations. Only occupations with 4% or more shown in the table.