2017>Q3. Calgary & Area. Labour Market Report

Transcription

1 2017>Q3 Applications Management Consulting Ltd. Calgary & Area Labour Market Report This Calgary and Area Labour Market Report is produced four times a year and provides results on labour market needs, shortages and issues from the perspective of employers in the Calgary Region.

2 Table of Contents Summary... 1 Calgary Economy... 1 Calgary Population... 4 Calgary Housing Market... 5 Labour Force Statistics... 7 Industry Employment... 9 Employer Survey Employer Survey - Q Results Survey Profile Business Activity Employment: Past Layoffs, Vacant Positions and Future Employment Recruitment Methods Recruiting Difficulties Employee Turnover Employee Retention Supplemental Questions - Focus on Technological Changes Appendix A: Survey Methodology Appendix B: Employer Survey - Q Occupation Results... 61

3 Summary 1 Q CALGARY ECONOMY SUMMARY The Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) economy is forecast to expand by a more robust 4.6% in 2017, following an average decline of 3.1% in 2015 and Growth is projected to remain in the range of 2% to 3% over the next few years. Calgary Economy PAST GROWTH CURRENT GROWTH FUTURE GROWTH Following strong annual GDP growth of 5.5% in 2014, the collapse in oil prices resulted in contractions of 3.0% and 3.2% in 2015 and 2016 respectively in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Calgary s construction sector was hit particularly hard during the recession, as output in the industry contracted nearly 40%. 1 The economic contraction that began with the collapse in oil prices is projected to end in Real GDP in the Calgary CMA is forecast to grow at a rate of 4.6% in 2017, with help from increased activity in the energy sector. Calgary s economy is projected to be the fastest growing among Canada s 13 major CMAs in 2017, followed by Edmonton (3.9%) and Toronto (3.7%). While oil prices have improved over the past year, they are projected to remain below their pre-recession highs over the next few years. As a result, real GDP in the Calgary CMA is projected to moderate to 2.1% next year and gradually improve to 2.6% by Calgary CMA Past GDP Growth GDP Growth Forecast 2017 Calgary CMA GDP Growth Forecast % Calgary CMA 4.6% % % % Alberta 4.4% % % % Canada 2.6% % -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 1 All past and forecast data from: Arcand, Alan, and Jane McIntyre. Metropolitan Outlook 1: Calgary Autumn Ottawa: The Conference Board of Canada, 2017.

4 2 Q CALGARY ECONOMY SUMMARY The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is forecast to average $US50 per barrel in 2017 and about $US51 in OIL PRICES INFLATION WEEKLY EARNINGS West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices averaged US $48 per barrel in Q3 2017, unchanged from the previous quarter but up from US$45 in Q Western Canada Select (WCS) prices, the Canadian heavy oil benchmark, averaged US$38 per barrel in the third quarter of 2017, reflecting a differential of US $10 per barrel. WTI crude is forecast to average US$49.70 per barrel in 2017 and US $51.04 per barrel in Consumer prices in Calgary rose 1.2% in September 2017 (y/y), compared to 1.3% in Alberta and 1.6% nationally. Calgary recorded price growth in all eight major consumer categories, with the highest growth rates observed in alcohol and tobacco and transportation. HIgher gasoline prices (+10.4%) was the main contributor to inflation in the transportation category. 3 The average weekly earnings of payroll employees in the Calgary CMA increased by $6 month-over-month to $1,135 in September 2017, but was virtually unchanged year-overyear. Calgarians in the utilities and mining and oil and gas industries had the highest average weekly earnings at $2,401 and $2,094 respectively in September 2017, while accommodation and food services employees had the lowest weekly earnings at $ WTI Prices, Quarterly Avg. (US$/bbl) Calgary Inflat. Rates Sep. 17 (y/y) Calgary CMA Avg Weekly Earnings Q3 17 Q2 17 Q1 17 Q4 16 $48 $48 $52 $49 All-Items Alcohol & tobacco Transportation Food Health & pers. care Rec., ed., & reading Shelter 1.2% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% Sep 17 Aug 17 $1,135 $1,129 Q3 16 $45 Clothing & footwear Household ops 0.4% 0.4% Sep 16 $1,135 $0 $20 $40 $60 0% 1% 2% 3% $0 $400 $800 $1,200 2 Baytex Energy Corp. Historical Oil Pricing and U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short Term Energy Outlook, November 7, City of Calgary, September 2017 Inflation Review, October 20, City of Calgary, Corporate Economics, Economics, Labour Market Review, August and September 2017.

5 3 Q CALGARY ECONOMY SUMMARY The number of Calgarians receiving regular Employment Insurance (EI) benefits declined 31% year-over-year in September NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET Investment in non-residential building construction in the Calgary CMA totaled $838 million in Q3 2017, down 16.6% year-over-year. Investment in institutional and governmental projects, which made up one-quarter of nonresidential construction spending, declined 20.4% y/y. Investment in Alberta declined 7.1% y/y in Q3 2017, while nationally, non-residential investment rose 3.4%. 5 Since reaching a record peak of 32,740 beneficiaries in November 2016, the number of Calgarians receiving regular EI benefits declined for the tenth consecutive month in September 2017 to 21,880, and was also down 31% compared to September As of September 2017, 28% of unemployed Calgarians were receiving EI. In Alberta, total EI beneficiaries fell to 63,010 in September 2017, down 35% year-over-year. 6 Vacancy in Calgary s downtown office market may have finally reached its peak. After rising steadily over the last three years, the city s downtown office vacancy rate declined to 25.7% in Q3 2017, from 26.4% the previous quarter. Vacancy is forecast to slowly trend downwards following the completion of Telus Sky Tower in the final quarter of Inv. in Non-Res Construction Q3 17 (y/y) Calgary EI Beneficiaries Calgary Downtown Office Vac. Rates Calgary -16.6% Sep ,880 Q % Q % Alberta -7.1% Aug ,050 Q % Q % Canada 3.4% Sep ,750 Q % -25%-20%-15%-10% -5% -0% 5% 0 20,000 40,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 5 Statistics Canada, CANSIM table Statistics Canada, CANSIM table Avison Young Q Calgary Office Market Report. Forecast uses reasonable assumptions.

6 4 Q CALGARY POPULATION SUMMARY Calgary s population reached million in April 2017, a 0.9% increase year-over-year. Between 2018 and 2026 the population of the city of Calgary is expected to grow by an annual average of 1.3% per year. Calgary s senior population (aged 65+) is forecast to increase by about 4% per year over the next 10 years, to 189,100 in Calgary Population TOTAL POPULATION YOUTH POPULATION SENIOR POPULATION Calgary s population as a whole is forecast to grow by about 56,400 over the next five years, from 1,246,300 in 2017 to about 1,302,700 in According to the City of Calgary s most recent projections, there will be some shifts in the demographics of the population that will significantly impact Calgary over the next 10 years. 8 Calgary s youth population (aged 15-24) is projected to decline by about 5,800 over the next five years, from an estimated 145,600 in 2017 to 139,800 in The decline is more due to slowing net migration (fewer people are moving to Calgary) and an aging population, rather than an exodus of young people from Calgary. Calgary s senior population (aged 65+) is forecast to grow by about 23,500 over the next five years, from 132,700 in 2017 to about 156,200 in Rapid growth in the senior population is expected to put pressure on some of Calgary s services and infrastructure. Calgary Pop. Growth Forecast Youth Pop. Growth Forecast Senior Pop. Growth Forecast % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 0% 1% 2% -4% -2% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 8 Sources for all population growth forecasts: City of Calgary, Corporate Economics, Calgary and Region Economic Outlook , Fall 2017.

7 5 Q CALGARY HOUSING MARKET SUMMARY Calgary Housing Market Existing home sales in the city of Calgary rose 7.2% y/y in the first nine months of 2017, while the average sales price increased 1.9%. The average sales price of an existing home in Calgary rose 1.9% y/y to $489,186 in the first nine months of A 2.8% increase in the average sales price for a detached home and a 1.7% increase for an attached home was offset by a 4.7% decline in the average sales price for an apartment. Overall, existing home prices in Calgary are forecast to remain relatively unchanged yearover-year in Improved market balance in the first half of 2017 has supported the modest price appreciation year-to date September $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 City of Calgary Average Sales Prices for Existing Homes YTD Sep 2017 YTD Sep 2016 $563,314 $547,746 $489,186$480,084 $408,821$401,979 $296,385 $311,088 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Total Detached Apartment Attached City of Calgary Existing Home Sales Q Q Q Q Q ,688 6,155 4,167 3,802 4, ,500 5,000 7,500 Existing home sales in the city of Calgary totaled 4,688 units in the third quarter of 2017, down 2.2% from 4,793 sales in the third quarter of Year to date September 2017, total existing home sales reached 15,004 units, a 7.2% increase compared to the first nine months of Attached home sales were up 9.6% year-over-year to the end of September 2017, while detached home and apartment sales increased 6.9% and 5.1% respectively Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), Monthly Statistics Package, City of Calgary, September Ibid.

8 6 Q CALGARY HOUSING MARKET SUMMARY Economic conditions in Alberta have improved compared to the previous year contributing to a decrease in apartment vacancy rates in the majority of the province s largest urban centres. Following three consecutive years of increases, Alberta s overall apartment vacancy rate fell to 7.5% in October 2017, from 8.1% the previous year. Calgary s apartment vacancy rate declined to 6.3% in 2017, from 7.0% a year earlier. Rental demand in the Wood Buffalo region continues to be impacted by wildfire recovery efforts, weak labour market conditions and a decline in population. In October 2017, Wood Buffalo s apartment vacancy rate jumped to 23.6%, from 17.8% in Alberta Wood Buffalo Red Deer Edmonton Calgary Medicine Hat Lethbridge Grande Prairie Private Apartment Vacancy Rates in Alberta s Largest Urban Centres Oct 2017 Oct % 8.1% 23.6% 17.8% 13.1% 13.6% 7.0% 7.1% 6.3% 7.0% 6.2% 5.4% 5.1% 8.5% 4.9% 19.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Avg. Apartment Rents Oct 2017 (2-bedroom) AB Wood Buffalo Calgary Edmonton Grande Prairie Red Deer Lethbridge Medicine Hat $937 $842 $1,012 $1,011 $1,188 $1,247 $1,215 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $1,531 The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Alberta fell slightly to $1,188/month in 2017 from $1,195/month one year prior. Among the province s largest urban centres, Wood Buffalo had the highest average rent for a twobedroom unit at $1,531, up from from $1,454 in October In Calgary, the average rent for an apartment declined 0.9% to $1,247/month in 2017, following a decrease of 5.5% in Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Rental Market Report, Alberta Highlights, Released Ibid.

9 7 Q LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS SUMMARY Calgary s labour market continued to improve in Q with the unemployment rate dropping to 8.5% and employment up 4.7% y/y. PARTICIPATION EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT Calgary s labour force participation rate fell slightly to an average of 74.7% in Q3 2017, from 74.9% the previous quarter but was up from 73.0% year-over-year. Men had a higher labour force participation rate (80.2%) than women (70.9%) in Q3 2017, while the participation rate for Calgarians aged (89.9%) was higher than for youth aged (72.1%) and adults aged 55+ (48.3%). The participation rate is the number of persons employed, or unemployed but looking for a job, divided by the total working-age population. Employment in the Calgary CMA averaged 836,200 in the third quarter of 2017, up by 8,100 or 1.0% from the previous quarter and up by 37,700 or 4.7% year-over-year. Employment in Calgary is forecast to increase by 1.1% in 2018 (8,800 net new jobs). Most major industries are forecast to grow in 2018, with the exception of transportation and warehousing (-6.3%), personal services (-0.4%) and non-commercial services (-1.6%). Employment growth of 5.5% is projected for the primary and utilities sector in Calgary s unemployment rate dropped significantly to an average of 8.5% in Q3 2017, from 9.2% the previous quarter and from 9.3% in Q Edmonton and St. John s NL had the highest average unemployment rate among major metropolitan areas in Canada in Q (8.6%), followed by Calgary (8.5%) and Saskatoon (8.2%). Victoria s and Vancouver s unemployment rates were the lowest at 4.6% and 4.8% respectively. Canada s unemployment rate averaged 6.3% in Q Calgary Labour Force Survey Stats Q Q Q Participation Rate 74.7% 74.9% 73.0% Employment Rate 68.4% 68.0% 66.2% Unemployment Rate 8.5% 9.2% 9.3% Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM table Labour Force Statistics 13 Arcand, Alan, and Jane McIntyre. Metropolitan Outlook 1: Calgary Autumn Ottawa: The Conference Board of Canada, 2017.

10 8 Q LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS SUMMARY TYPE OF WORK GENDER AGE Year-over-year, employment in the Calgary CMA rose by 4.7% in the third quarter of The number of Calgarians working part-time rose to an average of 149,300 in Q3 2017, up 5.5% (+7,800) yearover-year. Women accounted for all the increase in parttime work (+17.9% or +15,900), offset by a decrease in part-time work among men. Full-time employment increased 4.6% (+30,300) on the year in Q3 2017, with men accounting for the majority of the gains (+6.0% or +23,100). Employment growth among Calgary women continued to be strong in Q3 2017, increasing 6.2% (+23,100) year-over-year. The 3.4% rise in employment among men (+15,000) supplemented the gains among women. Overall, the unemployment rate for men averaged 8.8% in the third quarter of 2017, while the unemployment rate for women averaged 8.5%. Men aged years had the highest unemployment rate in the third quarter at 16.9% while men aged years had the lowest unemployment rate at 6.4%. Employment among Calgarians aged years declined 1.3% (-1,400) on the year in the third quarter of 2017, the only major age category to record a loss. Employment increased 5.0% (+28,400) among Calgarians aged years and 7.5% (+11,000) among older adults aged 55+ years. In the third quarter of 2017, 12% of all employed Calgarians were aged years, 70% were aged years and 18% were aged 55+ years. Q Q Unemployment Rates by Gender and Age, Calgary CMA Men (15 yrs+) Total Men (15-24 yrs) Men (25-54 yrs) Men (55 yrs+) 6.4% 7.0% 8.8% 9.0% 10.4% 12.1% 16.9% 17.6% Women (15 yrs+) Total Women (15-24 yrs) Women (25-54 yrs) Women (55 yrs+) 8.5% 10.0% 9.5% 18.4% 7.9% 7.9% 10.1% 10.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM table , Employment by CMA based on 2011 Census boundaries and National Occupational Classification (NOC), three-month moving average, unadjusted for seasonality.

11 9 Q INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT SUMMARY Industry Employment These are the industries that posted the greatest change in employment in the Calgary CMA and Alberta in Q (y/y). Calgary CMA Highlights Accommodation & Food Services Health Care & Social Assistance Mining & Oil & Gas Other Services +16,900 jobs +10,000 jobs -6,700 jobs -4,300 jobs Alberta Highlights Mining & Oil & Gas Manufacturing Other Services Construction +11,300 jobs +8,400 jobs -10,400 jobs -9,200 jobs All industries Public Administration Transportation & Wareousing Non-Commercial Services Personal Services Fin. Ins. & Real Estate Wholesale & Retail Trade Info & Culture Manufacturing Business Services Construction Primary & Utilities 2017 and 2018 Forecast Change in Employment by Industry, Calgary CMA 2.7% 1.1% % 3.9% 18.7% -6.3% 9.4% -1.6% 6.3% -0.4% 4.3% 1.3% 1.9% 2.1% -1.1% 6.5% -1.8% 3.1% -2.0% 0.7% -8.4% 7.2% -10.0% 5.5% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% Forecast: Arcand, Alan, and Jane McIntyre. Metropolitan Outlook 1: Calgary Autumn Ottawa: The Conference Board of Canada, 2017.

12 10 Q Employer Survey SUMMARY Survey Results: 201 small-sized employers with employees were surveyed in Q PAST GROWTH FUTURE GROWTH LAYOFFS On balance, 5% of employers reported that their company downsized in the 12 months prior to their survey (23% said they expanded and 28% said they downsized), compared to Q when 23% of employers reported a business downsize. Results varied by industry with 8 of 10 industries on balance reporting business downsizing. On balance, 12% of employers anticipate a business expansion in the 12 months following their survey (22% anticipate an expansion and 10% anticipate a downsize), up significantly from from the Q results when 6% of employers on balance anticipated a business downsize. Results varied by industry with 8 of 10 industries on balance anticipating a business expansion in the next 12 months. Thirteen per cent of employers reported that their companies laid off workers in the 3 months prior to their survey, down from 25% in Q Overall, employers reported about 90 people were laid off, representing a layoff rate of 1.8%, down from 5.0% in Q The highest number of layoffs were reported in the construction industry. Q3 Business Expansion Q3 Anticipated Business Expansion Q3 Layoffs % -15% 0% 15% 30% % 10% 30% % 10% 20% 30%

13 11 Q SUMMARY Vacancies Difficulty Recruiting Voluntary Turnover Turnover Rate The most frequently reported vacant positions were facility operation and maintenance managers, truck drivers, community and social service workers, and food counter attendants and kitchen helpers. The positions employers reported the most difficulty recruiting were facility operation and maintenance managers and truck drivers. The positions employers reported had the highest voluntary turnover were community and social service workers, shippers and receivers, secretaries, insurance agents and brokers, retail salespersons, and construction trades labourers. Fifty-six per cent of employers reported approximately 315 employees left as a result of voluntary turnover in the 12 months prior to their survey. Overall, the voluntary turnover rate was 6.4%. PAST RECRUITMENT FUTURE RECRUITMENT PAST TURNOVER FUTURE TURNOVER Employers were asked if they had difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months prior to their survey. Twenty-nine per cent of employers reported difficulty recruiting, up from 17% in Q Employers were asked if they anticipate having more, less or the same difficulty recruiting qualified employees in the 12 months following their survey. On balance, 3% anticipate more difficulty compared to 9% anticipating less difficulty in Q Employers were asked if they had any voluntary turnover in the 12 months prior to their survey. Fiftysix per cent of employers reported voluntary turnover, compared to 53% in Q Employers were asked if they anticipate voluntary turnover will be higher, lower or the same in the 12 months following their survey. On balance, 8% anticipate employee turnover will be lower over the next year Q3 Past Difficulty Q3 Future Difficulty Q3 Past Turnover Q3 Future Turnover % 25% 50% % 0% 30% % 35% 70% % -10% 0%

14 12 Q SUMMARY Employers reported career and classified websites was the most successful recruitment method in the 12 months prior to their survey. Most Successful Recruitment Methods Career and classified websites Word of mouth/employees referrals Company website/internal postings 7% Employment agencies 5% Social media 3% Walk-ins/unsolicited resumes 3% Newspapers 2% Rehires 1% Industry associations 1% Other 1% Signage 1% Unsure 1% None 1% Did not hire in past 12 months 17% 23% 31% Employers reported that providing a job in this economy was the most successful employee retention strategy in the 12 months prior to their survey. Most Successful Employee Retention Strategies Provide a job in this economy Competitive salary Positive work environment Excellent management/supervision Company culture 6% Flexible work measures 5% Interesting/challenging work 5% Competitive benefits package 4% Learning/growth opportunities 4% Cash bonuses 2% Excellent coworkers 2% Perks 2% Other 6% Unsure 4% Don t have/need strategy 5% 8% 12% 14% 17%

15 13 Q SUMMARY Overall, almost two-fifths of the employers reported they have implemented or adopted technological changes in the past two years. Yes No Unsure Implemented technological changes in past two years Overall Fin. Insur. Real Est. & Leasing Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Accomm. & Food/Arts & Ent. Manufacturing Transportation & Warehousing Other Professional Scientific & Tech. Wholesale & Retail Trade Mining & Oil & Gas 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Overall, over one-quarter of employers have a plan to implement or adopt technological changes in the next two years. Yes No Unsure Plan to implement technological changes in the next two years Overall Fin. Insur. Real Est. & Leasing Accomm. & Food/Arts & Ent. Health Care & Social Assistance Manufacturing Other Construction Wholesale & Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Professional Scientific & Tech. Mining & Oil & Gas 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

16 14 Q Survey Results: Small-sized employers with employees Employer Survey - Q Results The purpose of the quarterly survey is to gather information from Calgary and area employers on their recruitment and retention practices and various other employment issues they are facing. Over the course of the year, employers will be divided into four categories based on the number of employees in the company and results of the survey will be reported on as follows: Q1 2017: Large-sized companies with 100+ employees Q2 2017: Medium-sized companies with employees Q3 2017: Small-sized companies with employees Q4 2017: Micro-sized companies with <10 employees Survey Profile The 201 small-sized employers surveyed employ approximately 4,908 people. Of this total, 85 per cent are full-time employees, 7 per cent are part-time employees, and 8 per cent are either contract, seasonal, casual, temporary or relief staff. How many people does your company employ in the Calgary region? Industry Total Employees Number of Companies Mining & Oil & Gas Construction Manufacturing Wholesale & Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing Other Total 4, Other represents companies in any of the following industries: agriculture, utilities, information & culture, management of companies, administrative & support services, educational services, other services or public administration.

17 Business Activity 15 On balance, 5 per cent of the employers said their company downsized in the last 12 months. Twenty-three per cent of the employers surveyed in Q reported their company expanded in the 12 months prior to their survey and 28 per cent said their company downsized, resulting in a negative balance of 5 per cent. 14 In Q3 2016, 14 per cent of the employers reported they expanded and 37 per cent said they downsized, for a negative balance of 23 per cent. On balance, 28 per cent of the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing employers and 25 per cent of the other employers said they expanded in the past year - the only industries to record positive results. In contrast, 25 per cent of the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers and 20 per cent of the construction employers reported they downsized. Past Business Activity Percentage of companies that expanded or downsized in the 12 months prior to their survey Q Q Expanded Downsized Balance Expanded Downsized Balance Overall Results 14% 37% -23% 23% 28% -5% Results by Industry Mining & Oil & Gas 10% 57% -48% 15% 30% -15% Construction 10% 70% -60% 20% 40% -20% Manufacturing 10% 50% -40% 30% 35% -5% Wholesale & Retail Trade 5% 65% -60% 25% 40% -15% Transportation & Warehousing 10% 30% -20% 15% 25% -10% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 20% 45% -25% 25% 35% -10% Health Care & Social Assistance 25% 10% 15% 15% 25% -10% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 15% 10% 5% 10% 35% -25% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 25% 15% 10% 38% 10% 28% Other 15% 20% -5% 35% 10% 25% 30%% 20%% 10%% 0%%!10%%!20%%!30%%!40%% Has$your$company$expanded$or$downsized$ $in$the$last$12$months?$ Expanded% Downsized% Balance%!23%% Q3%2016%!5%% Q3%2017% Comments Our revenue has declined because our rates have been reduced in order to get customers. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We have downsized a little bit. - Construction We have really downsized because of the economy. - Construction We stayed about the same. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 14 Percentage of employers reporting a business expansion minus percentage of employers reporting a business downsize.

18 16 We have downsized in the Calgary office. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing We have downsized a lot. - Health Care & Social Assistance We have expanded both in terms of people and space. - Health Care & Social Assistance In June we were bought out by a larger parent company. - Manufacturing We have stayed static. - Manufacturing We have downsized by about 50%. - Mining & Oil & Gas We are about even compared to last year. - Mining & Oil & Gas We opened a sister location. - Other We have really shrunk. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We have had some acquisitions, so there's been expansion. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We have expanded slightly. - Transportation & Warehousing We are in the process of downsizing. - Wholesale & Retail Trade We took over the Canmore location. We used existing staff and added a few new employees as well. - Wholesale & Retail Trade On balance, 12 per cent of the employers anticipate a business expansion in the next 12 months. Employers are more optimistic about the next 12 months than they were in Q Twentytwo per cent of the employers anticipate their company will expand in the 12 months following their survey and 10 per cent anticipate their company will downsize, for a positive balance of 12 per cent. 15 In Q3 2016, 13 per cent anticipated an expansion and 19 per cent anticipated a downsize, for a balance of 6 per cent of the employers anticipating a downsize. With the exception of construction and manufacturing, all the industries anticipate a business expansion in the next year, on balance. Thirty per cent of the professional, scientific and technical services employers and about a quarter of the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing and other employers anticipate a business expansion in the next 12 months. In contrast, 5 per cent of the 2 20%$ 1 10%$ 0%$!!10%$!1!20%$ Do#you#an(cipate#a#business#expansion#or# downsize#in#the#next#12#months?# Expansion$ Downsize$ Balance$!6%$ Q3$2016$ 12%$ Q3$2017$ 15 Percentage of employers anticipating a business expansion minus percentage of employers anticipating a business downsize.

19 17 construction and manufacturing employers on balance anticipate a business downsize in the next year. Employers in the mining and oil and gas industry appear to be more positive about future business activity, with 15 per cent on balance anticipating a business expansion in the next year, compared to one-third anticipating a business downsize when surveyed in Q Future Business Activity Percentage of companies that anticipate an expansion or downsize in the 12 months following their survey Q Q Expansion Downsize Balance Expansion Downsize Balance Overall Results 13% 19% -6% 22% 10% 12% Results by Industry Mining & Oil & Gas 0% 33% -33% 20% 5% 15% Construction 0% 25% -25% 15% 20% -5% Manufacturing 15% 20% -5% 15% 20% -5% Wholesale & Retail Trade 10% 50% -40% 15% 10% 5% Transportation & Warehousing 15% 20% -5% 35% 15% 20% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 30% 20% 10% 30% 0% 30% Health Care & Social Assistance 20% 0% 20% 20% 15% 5% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 5% 15% -10% 10% 5% 5% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 25% 5% 20% 29% 5% 24% Other 15% 5% 10% 30% 5% 25% Comments I expect things to remain stable. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment That depends on the economy. When the economy in Alberta is bad, then people don't want to spend money. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment That depends on the market, but at this point I anticipate we will stay the same. - Construction We will stay even. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing There will be a slight increase. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing I really don't see things getting better in the near future. - Health Care & Social Assistance It's possible there will be an expansion. - Health Care & Social Assistance We are getting busier and busier, so there will be expansion. - Manufacturing We will be closing down this current facility in September or October of this year. - Manufacturing We don't know because that all depends on the price of oil. - Manufacturing I think things will be status quo. - Mining & Oil & Gas We will probably expand slightly. - Mining & Oil & Gas There will be a minimal expansion. - Other We may be offering a new program now, so we might be asked to offer extra classes. - Other I expect things to remain status quo. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

20 18 There will be a bit of expansion. - Transportation & Warehousing Things will probably remain status quo, unless a lot of people quit. We haven't been replacing positions as they become vacant. - Wholesale & Retail Trade We are not replacing people as they leave, so I expect some downsizing. - Wholesale & Retail Trade There may be a little bit more of an expansion. - Wholesale & Retail Trade We are picking up right now. - Wholesale & Retail Trade Employment: Past Layoffs, Vacant Positions and Future Employment Thirteen per cent of the employers laid off workers in the three months prior to their survey. Thirteen per cent of the employers reported they laid off workers in the three months prior to their survey (for reasons other than seasonality). This is a significant improvement compared to the Q results, when 25 per cent of the employers said they laid off workers. Forty per cent of the construction employers and 20 per cent of the wholesale and retail trade employers reported they laid off workers, compared to none of the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers. The most dramatic Percentage)of)companies)that)laid)off) employees)in)the)three)months)prior)to)survey) Overall# ConstrucGon# Wholesale#&#Retail#Trade# Manufacturing# Professional,#ScienGfic#&#Tech.# Health#Care#&#Social#Assistance# TransportaGon#&#Warehousing# Fin.,#Insur.,#Real#Est.#&#Leasing# Other# Mining#&#Oil#&#Gas# Accom.#&#Food/Arts#&#Ent.# Q3#2017# improvement this year was among manufacturing employers, with 15 per cent reporting they laid off employees, compared to 40 per cent in Q The percentage of employers reporting they laid off workers increased year-over-year among health care and social assistance employers. Overall, employers reported about 90 people were laid off, representing a layoff rate of 1.8 per cent. This is a significant improvement compared to the Q results when employers reported 236 people were laid off, representing a layoff rate of 5.0 per cent. The construction (9.7 per cent), wholesale and retail trade (1.9 per cent) and manufacturing (1.6 per cent) industries had the highest layoff rates in Q3 2017, while accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment employers reported no layoffs. Additional details on layoffs can be found in Appendix B. 0%# Q3#2016# 13%# 20%# %# 10%# 40%# 0%# 10%# 1 20%# 2 30%# 3 40%# 4

21 19 Number of Layoffs and Layoff Rates (in the three months prior to survey) Industry Q Total Layoffs Layoff Rate Q Total Layoffs Layoff Rate Construction 17 Wholesale & Retail Trade 21 Manufacturing 18 Health Care & Social Assistance 1 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 19 Transportation & Warehousing 15 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 5 Other 5 Mining & Oil & Gas 129 Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 6 Total 236 Layoff rate is the number of layoffs as a percent of total employme ent. 3.7% % 8 4.0% 7 0.2% 7 4.2% 5 2.6% 3 1.1% 2 1.2% % 1 1.1% 0 5.0% % 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.8% Comments What we tend to do is to reduce hours rather than laying people off. Some people have quit in response to reduction in hours. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We laid off 2 consultants. - Construction We laid off about 8 concrete finishers. - Construction There have been about 30 heavy equipment operators laid off. - Construction We let one financial advisor go. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing Yes, we've eliminated a bank teller position. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing Yes, we have laid off about 5 dental assistants. - Health Care & Social Assistance We had to lay off our manager of development. - Health Care & Social Assistance Yes, we laid off 2 labourers. - Manufacturing We laid off one environmental scientist. - Mining & Oil & Gas No, we just reduced hours. - Mining & Oil & Gas We laid off two technologists. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We laid off two people in data entry. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We laid off a dispatcher. - Transportation & Warehousing Yes, two truck drivers. - Transportation & Warehousing There has been work sharing to avoid layoffs. - Transportation & Warehousing

22 20 We have laid off about 10% of our staff, or about four salespeople. - Wholesale & Retail Trade We laid off one person in the admin department in Canmore. Our accounting is now done at the Red Deer location. - Wholesale & Retail Trade Forty-one per cent of the employers had 179 vacant positions that needed to be filled. Overall, 41 per cent of the employers reported they had vacant positions that needed to be filled at the time of their survey, up from 22 per cent in Q Fifty-seven per cent of the finance, insurance, real estate and leasing employers and 45 per cent of the professional, scientific and technical services and health care and social assistance employers had vacant positions, compared to 30 per cent of the manufacturing and mining and oil and gas employers. Percentage)of)companies)with)vacant)posi3ons) that)needed)to)be)filled)at)3me)of)survey) Overall$ Fin.,$Insur.,$Real$Est.$&$Leasing$ Professional,$Scien<fic$&$Tech.$ Health$Care$&$Social$Assistance$ Accom.$&$Food/Arts$&$Ent.$ Transporta<on$&$Warehousing$ Other$ Wholesale$&$Retail$Trade$ Construc<on$ Manufacturing$ Mining$&$Oil$&$Gas$ Q3$2017$ Employers reported they had 179 vacancies that needed to be filled at the time of their survey, resulting in an overall vacancy rate of 3.5 per cent. Vacancy rates ranged from a high of over 5.0 per cent in the accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment and transportation and warehousing industries to a low of 1.8 per cent in the manufacturing industry. Additional details on vacant positions can be found in Appendix B. Number of Vacant Positions and Vacancy Rates Q3$2016$ 30%$ 30%$ 41%$ %$ 40%$ 40%$ 40%$ 40%$ 57%$ 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ 60%$ Industry Comments # of Vacant Positions Total Employees Vacancy Rate # of Vacant Positions Total Employees We probably have about 5 positions open right now in housekeeping and front desk. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment Vacancy Rate Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment % % Transportation & Warehousing % % Other % % Professional, Scientific & Technical Services % % Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing % % Construction % % Mining & Oil & Gas % % Health Care & Social Assistance % % Wholesale & Retail Trade % % Manufacturing % % Total 105 4, % 179 4, % Vacancy rate is the number of vacant positions divided by all positions (vacant and occupied) Q Q3 2017

23 21 We have started up the hiring process for our peak season, so we are looking for about 5 ice technicians. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment Hiring is ongoing here, especially for housekeeping. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We are looking for 6 people in our operations department. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We are always looking for cooks and crew. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We're looking for about 3 electricians. - Construction We are always hiring journeymen electricians. - Construction We are looking for a social media organizer and an administrative professional. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing We need 3 more property managers. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing We are looking for a deaf senior companion. - Health Care & Social Assistance We have one position open in dental administration. - Health Care & Social Assistance We need a research consultant. - Health Care & Social Assistance There are two positions open, for a community disability services worker and a residential services worker. - Health Care & Social Assistance We are always looking for casual addictions support workers. - Health Care & Social Assistance We are always looking for qualified awning installers. - Manufacturing We have 3 positions in woodwork manufacturing open right now. - Manufacturing We need two ranging specialists for our directional drilling operations. - Mining & Oil & Gas We need two early childhood educators. - Other We need 3 education assistants. - Other We need a new director. - Other We're always looking for architects and architectural technologists. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We are searching for 3 legal assistants in family law. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We're a tax law firm so we're always looking for lawyers, but we have no specific positions available. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services

24 22 We are looking for someone in our data analytics department. - Professional, Scientific & Technical Services We could use 3 more drivers. - Transportation & Warehousing We are looking for 3 or 4 more client services representatives. - Transportation & Warehousing We could use 4 to 6 more tow truck drivers. - Transportation & Warehousing We have two positions open in aircraft maintenance. - Transportation & Warehousing We could use 2 more gas attendants. - Wholesale & Retail Trade On balance, 1 per cent of the employers anticipate employment in their company will increase over the next three months. Once any current vacant positions are filled, 8 per cent of the employers anticipate employment in their company will increase over the next three months, 7 per cent anticipate employment will decrease, and 85 per cent anticipate employment will stay about the same, for a positive balance of 1 per cent. 16 In Q3 2016, 3 per cent of the employers on balance anticipated employment would decrease. Transportation and warehousing and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing employers are the most positive about future employment levels, with 10 per cent on balance anticipating employment will increase in the three months following their survey. In contrast, 10 per cent of the construction employers on balance anticipate employment will decrease. 10%$ 0%$!!10%$!1 Do#you#an(cipate#employment#will#increase,## decrease#or#stay#the#same#in#the#next#3#months?# Increase$ Decrease$ Balance$!3%$ Q3$2016$ 1%$ Q3$2017$ 16 Percentage of employers that anticipate employment in their company will increase in the next three months minus the percentage of employers that anticipate employment will decrease.

25 23 Future Employment Percentage of companies that anticipated an increase or decrease in total employment in the 3 months following their survey Q Q Increase Decrease Balance Increase Decrease Balance Overall Results 9% 12% -3% 8% 7% 1% Results by Industry Mining & Oil & Gas 5% 10% -5% 5% 5% 0% Construction 10% 20% -10% 10% 20% -10% Manufacturing 10% 5% 5% 5% 10% -5% Wholesale & Retail Trade 10% 35% -25% 5% 10% -5% Transportation & Warehousing 15% 0% 15% 10% 0% 10% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 25% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% Health Care & Social Assistance 5% 0% 5% 10% 5% 5% Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment 5% 30% -25% 10% 15% -5% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing 10% 5% 5% 10% 0% 10% Other 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 5% Overall, in the three months following their survey, employers anticipate employment will increase by 62 and decrease by 77, for a net employment decrease of 15 people. Transportation and warehousing employers anticipate a net employment increase of 15 people, while construction employers anticipate a net employment decrease of 38 people. Additional details on anticipated changes in employment can be found in Appendix B. Industry Anticipated change in employment over the following three months Q Q Increase # Decrease # Net # Increase # Decrease # Transportation & Warehousing Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment Other Health Care & Social Assistance Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing Mining & Oil & Gas Manufacturing Wholesale & Retail Trade Construction Total Net # Comments Total employment will decrease by about a dozen people. We will be approaching our end of season and the university students we employ will go back to school in September. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment We will be hiring an additional 15 people in food and beverage positions. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment I hope to increase so I can staff the restaurant properly. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment

26 24 I will be laying off four carpenters by November 1. - Construction We will let about five contractors go due to seasonality. - Construction Hopefully we will increase by at least 10 concrete finishers. - Construction In the next little while we will be letting six to ten people go. - Construction We will layoff another 30 heavy equipment operators. - Construction Total employment will remain the same for the next three months, but maybe in the last quarter of the year we might make a decision to downsize. - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Leasing I expect it will probably continue to decrease. - Health Care & Social Assistance We're just writing the ads now for two positions. - Health Care & Social Assistance We are not filling a vacant position due to the economic conditions right now. - Health Care & Social Assistance We will decrease by two employees. - Manufacturing To the best of my knowledge, it will decrease. We will lose at least one lab technician. - Manufacturing We're possibly looking at hiring one more salesperson. - Manufacturing We will probably let two accountants go. - Mining & Oil & Gas We are maxed out in terms of staffing and we are just holding in there. - Mining & Oil & Gas We will be adding five more preschool teachers by September. - Other We going into our busy season, so I expect we will increase by another ten drivers. - Transportation & Warehousing We will increase by three to five people. - Transportation & Warehousing No, we will not increase until after Christmas at least. - Transportation & Warehousing I will be letting three people go in the next three months. - Wholesale & Retail Trade

27 25 Recruitment Methods Career and classified websites was the most successful recruitment method over the last 12 months. Organizations use a variety of methods to recruit workers. Employers were asked to specify the recruitment method that was the most successful over the last 12 months. Career and classified websites was the most successful, reported by 31 per cent of the employers (28 employers specified Indeed, 14 specified Kijiji, 3 specified Job Bank and 1 employer each specified Job Shop, Reach Hire and Workopolis). Word of mouth/employee referrals was the second most successful recruitment method, reported by 23 per cent of Most%successful%recruitment%method%over%the% last%12%months% Career$and$classified$websites$ Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ Company$website/internal$pos?ngs$ Employment$agencies$ Social$media$ WalkEins/unsolicited$resumes$ Newspapers$ Rehires$ Industry$associa?ons$ Other$ Signage$ Unsure$ None$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 7%$ 3%$ 3%$ 2%$ 1%$ 1%$ 1%$ 1%$ 1%$ 1%$ the employers, followed by website/internal postings (7 per cent) and employment agencies (5 per cent). Only 3 per cent of employers said social media (Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter) was the most successful recruitment method. The most successful recruitment methods varied by industry. Career/classified websites was the most successful recruitment method in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing, professional, scientific and technical services, health care and social assistance and accommodation and food services/arts and entertainment industries, while word of mouth/employee referrals was the most successful recruitment method in the mining and oil and gas, finance, insurance, real estate and leasing and other industries. For construction employers, career/classified websites and word of mouth/employee referrals tied as the most successful recruitment methods. 17%$ 23%$ 31%$ 0%$ 10%$ 1 20%$ 2 30%$ 3 Mining%&%Oil%&%Gas%/%Most%successful% recruitment%method%over%the%last%12%months% Construc-on%.%Most%successful%recruitment% method%over%the%last%12%months% Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ 3 Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ 3 Career$and$classified$websites$ Social$media$ None$ Employment$agencies$ Company$website/internal$pos<ngs$ 1 10%$ 10%$ Career$and$classified$websites$ Company$website/internal$posBngs$ Walk9ins/unsolicited$resumes$ Rehires$ 10%$ 3 Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 20%$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 10%$ n=20% 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ n=20% 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$

28 26 Manufacturing%/%Most%successful%recruitment% method%over%the%last%12%months% Whole/Retail%Trade%3%Most%successful% recruitment%method%over%the%last%12%months% Career$and$classified$websites$ 50%$ Career$and$classified$websites$ Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ 1 3 Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ 1 WalkDins/unsolicited$resumes$ 10%$ Social$media$ Signage$ Newspapers$ High$schools$(RAP$program)$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 2 Employment$agencies$ Company$website/internal$pos<ngs$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 20%$ n=20% 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ n=20% 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ Transporta-on%&%Warehousing%5%Most%successful% recruitment%method%over%the%last%12%months% Prof,%Scien/fic%&%Tech%Services%6%Most%successful% recruitment%method%over%the%last%12%months% Career$and$classified$websites$ Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ WalkEins/unsolicited$resumes$ Unsure$ 20%$ 3 Career$and$classified$websites$ Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ Employment$agencies$ None$ Employment$agencies$ Company$website/internal$pos<ngs$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 20%$ Newspapers$ Social$media$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 10%$ 20%$ n=20% 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ n=20% 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ Health%Care%&%Social%Assistance%5%Most%successful% recruitment%method%over%the%last%12%months% Most%successful%recruitment%method%over%the% last%12%months%7%accomm%&%food/arts%&%ent% Career$and$classified$websites$ 3 Company$website/internal$posCngs$ 20%$ Industry$associaCons$ 10%$ Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ Walk=ins/unsolicited$resumes$ Social$media$ Newspapers$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 1 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ n=20% Career#and#classified#websites# 50%# Word#of#mouth/employee#referrals# 2 Rehires# 10%# Walk:ins/unsolicited#resumes# Signage# Employment#agencies# 0%# 10%# 20%# 30%# 40%# 50%# n=20%

29 27 Fin,%Ins,%Real%Est%&%Leasing%4%Most%successful% recruitment%method%over%the%last%12%months%% Other%+%Most%successful%recruitment%method% over%the%last%12%months% Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ 19%$ Word$of$mouth/employee$referrals$ 4 Employment$agencies$ 14%$ Company$website/internal$posDngs$ 1 Company$website/internal$posBngs$ 14%$ Career$and$classified$websites$ 1 Social$media$ 10%$ Unsure$ Career$and$classified$websites$ 10%$ Job$fairs$ Unsure$ Employment$agencies$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 29%$ Did$not$hire$in$the$last$12$months$ 10%$ n=21% 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ n=20% 0%$ 10%$ 20%$ 30%$ 40%$ 50%$ Comments We work more so with word of mouth based hires. We employ a lot of young university students or high school students that come in on a part time basis and are recommended by people we know. - Accommodation & Food Services/Arts & Entertainment I would say that the most successful strategy is probably hiring and advertising locally. We are focused on bringing people on who are already in Cochrane. - Accommodation & Food Services/ Arts & Entertainment Posting on our website is all we really need to do. I guess that is a sign of the times and of the economic conditions. - Construction We are just calling back our old employees. - Construction We use local newsprint advertising. - Health Care & Social Assistance We recruit through the Calgary Chamber of Volunteer Organizations, ReachHire and Charity Village. - Health Care & Social Assistance We have resumes on file that people have just dropped off. We just go through them. We don't do any advertising or anything like that. - Health Care & Social Assistance We use ReachHire, Indeed and the Alberta College of Social Workers. - Health Care & Social Assistance The most successful recruitment resources are the RAP program for high school students and youth employment through the Calgary Construction Association. - Manufacturing We usually hire people with prior work association with current staff. - Mining & Oil & Gas We don't really use recruitment methods. We have just been promoting from within. - Mining & Oil & Gas The market is saturated with candidates, so it's not really been difficult at all. We have just been hiring through word of mouth. - Mining & Oil & Gas