Affinity Diagram. Decision and Risk Analysis

Transcription

1 Affinity Diagram

2 Decision Analysis Process Identify Problem Identify Objectives (values) Identify Alternatives Decompose and Model Problem Structure Uncertainty Preference Choose Best Alternative Sensitivity Analysis More Analysis Yes Needed No Make Recommendation

3 Affinity Diagrams An Affinity Diagram is a tool that gathers large amounts of language data (ideas, opinions, issues) and organizes them into groupings based on their natural relationships Affinity process is often used to group ideas generated by Brainstorming Method: 1. State the issue to be examined in broad terms, such as an open ended question or statement. 2. Generate and record ideas using Post-it notes. Begin sticking them on a wall or large sheet of chart paper, in no particular order, and where everyone can see them 3. Arrange the notes in related or similar groupings 4. Choose a word or phrase that captures the intent of each group and place it at the top as a category name or title

4 Example Selecting courses for Summer

5 Brainstorming- Step 1 Selecting courses for Summer Generate Ideas

6 Display Ideas -Step 2 Selecting courses for Summer Time of the day Day of the week Cost of credit Professor Cost of books Difficulty level

7 Sort Ideas into Groups -Step 3 Selecting courses for Summer Time of the day Cost of credit Professor Day of the week Cost of books Difficulty level

8 Create Headers -Step 4 Selecting courses for Summer Time Cost Quality

9 Draw the final Affinity Diagram Step 5 Selecting courses for Summer Time Cost Quality Time of the day Cost of books Professor Day of the week Cost of credit Difficulty level

10 Decision Analysis Process Identify Problem Identify Objectives (values) Identify Alternatives Decompose and Model Problem Structure Uncertainty Preference Choose Best Alternative Sensitivity Analysis More Analysis Yes Needed No Make Recommendation

11 Value Focused Thinking Chapter 6 Affinity Diagram Structuring Decisions Chapter 3 Quantitative value hierarchy model

12 Value Focused Thinking

13 Where are we going? Our goal is to build a Value Function Quantifies the benefit that we get from implementing a decision alternative Type of utility function Typically maps anticipated benefit to a dimensionless number (utility) Used for comparison purposes (which alternatives do more to give the decision make what he/she wants) Can be used as an objective function for optimization Helps overcome the things that make a decision hard to make First step in building a value function is to identify the DM s values

14 Values Values Those things that are important to a decision maker, things that they care about Values are fundamental to all we do Values should drive decisions

15 Identifying Values Interact with decision makers Elicit feedback throughout design process or analysis Values are stated through objectives 3 Features of objectives (1) Decision Context (2) Object (3) Direction of Preference ex. Forest products company wants to minimize environmental impact (1) Decision Context - Harvesting Trees (2) Object - Environmental Impact (3) Direction of Preference - Minimum is best

16 Where does thinking about values lead? Improving Communication Uncover hidden objectives Creating alternatives Evaluating alternatives Value Focused Thinking Identify Decision Opportunities Involving Multiple DM s Guiding Information Collection Interconnecting decisions Guiding Strategic Thinking Keeney, Ralph L., Value-Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decision making, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp

17 Ways to Identify Values -Professor Gregory Parnell, USMA Gold Standard: based on an approved vision, policy, strategy, planning, or doctrine document Values have been thought about, discussed, and written down We use work that has already been done and approved Platinum Standard: based on interviews with decisionmakers and stakeholders Often difficult to get enough time with stakeholders and DMs Use Affinity Diagram for group settings (will discuss later) Silver Standard: uses data provided by stakeholder representatives When real DMs and stakeholders are not available Still use Affinity Diagrams for groups Combined Standard: combination of the above

18 Process of Identifying Values 1. Research potential Gold Standard documents Recognize that environment might have changed Results of research must be validated with DMs 2. Interview Stakeholders and/or Decision Makers Validate Gold Standard work If none, elicit values directly 3. Interact with lower level representatives as necessary Fill in the blanks Make sure you are consistent with thoughts of DMs 4. Combine above as necessary Note: always check regularly with the decision makers or reps!

19 Structuring Objectives Initial list has non-objectives Alternatives Constraints Criteria for evaluation Convert non-objectives into objectives Means objectives Fundamental objectives Why is each important? Means Objective: similar to smaller objectives that lead to the fundamental objective Fundamental Objective: Main objective

20 Values help guide strategic thinking Fundamental Objective Means Obj 1 Means Obj 2 Means Obj 3 Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making Strategic objectives are stable over time although the means to obtain these objectives vary over time.

21 My professional values help guide my strategic planning Fundamental Objective Be an internationally recognized Military OR Analyst and Professor Be an excellent teacher & mentor Publish important research & be in demand as consultant Perform significant professional service Means Objectives

22 In summary

23 General Qualitative Value Model (Value Hierarchy) Fundamental Objective Function 1 Function 2 Function 3 Objective 2.1 Objective 2.2 Objective 2.3 Evaluation Measure Evaluation Measure There can be multiple tiers or levels so that the problem can be subdivided into small enough pieces At the bottom tier are the attributes or measures or metrics that are used to quantify achievement in the objectives Use terms most appropriate for the domain

24 Building a Qualitative Value Model Step 1: Identify the fundamental objective Step 2: Identify functions that provide value Step 3: Identify the objectives that define value Step 4: Identify the value measures

25 Overall Method We Will Employ Start with values (not alternatives) Generate better alternatives based on values Evaluate alternatives using values This is the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) Philosophy Multiple Objective Decision Analysis is the mathematical technique used to implement VFT Also called: Multiple Attribute Utility Theory Multiple Attribute Value Theory Multiple Attribute Preference Theory