Shippers Meeting. Schiphol. 18 November 2010

Transcription

1 Shippers Meeting Schiphol 18 November 2010

2 Programme Introduction Long term development view Open Seasons Market Transition Petra Smeets Cees Hut Henk Abbing Antwa Munnik Lunch Customer satisfaction survey Miscellaneous Closing Ruud Wieleman Robert Luchies Petra Smeets

3 Programme Introduction Long term development view Open Seasons Market Transition Petra Smeets Cees Hut Henk Abbing Antwa Munnik Lunch Customer satisfaction survey Miscellaneous Closing Ruud Wieleman Robert Luchies Petra Smeets

4 Ten-Year Outlook Cees Hut, Corporate Asset Planning

5 Agenda Introduction Corporate Asset Planning for both TSOs Capacity outlook Translation Capacity Investments Investment Decisions TBGs Long-term View Infrastructure NW Europe Mid-term View Infrastructure GTS Conclusions

6 Background Gas roundabout developments Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel! Natural gas = Transition and Destination Fuel Indigenous Northwest European production is replaced by new supplies New supplies are arriving from Norway, Russia and by ship (LNG) Storage facilities are being developed

7 Policy Corporate Asset Planning The economy will recover slowly after 2009 Energy savings & reduction of CO2-emissions will be main focus of politics The development of renewables will continue Natural gas part of energy mix: Low Carbon Flexibility Low Costs Availability

8 Additional imports NW Europe 2020 and 2030 relative to 2010 Source: WoodM ackenzie, CERA, GTS UK+IRL 2020 UK+IRL 2030 NLD 2020 NLD 2030 GER 2020 GER 2030 FRA 2020 FRA 2030 BEL 2020 BEL 2030 Volume bil. m3 SW+DK 2020 SW+DK 2030 Long-term Development View Expected future outlook on gas imports ( ) normal weather conditions Volume in BCMY

9 Long-term Development View Developments in the region surrounding GTS / Gasunie Deutschland (2030) cold winter condition Capacity: Capacity: mcm/hr mcm/hr Volume: Volume: BCMY BCMY Capacity: Capacity: mcm/hr mcm/hr Volume: Volume: BCMY BCMY Capacity: Capacity: mcm/hr mcm/hr Volume: Volume: BCMY BCMY LTDV Region surrounding GTS / GUD Capacity: Capacity: mcm/hr mcm/hr Volume: Volume: BCMY BCMY Norwegian gas supply is assumed to be stable in the long term. Russian and LNG supply will grow. Additional investments in the supply routes are needed for security of supply. Additional LNG terminals are needed to diversify supply sources.

10 Long-term Development View Developments in the GTS / Gasunie Deutschland region (2030) cold winter condition Pipelines Pipelines IOS IOS Projects Projects Additional investments Additional investments LNG Storage Storage Capacity: Capacity: mcm/hr mcm/hr Volume: Volume: BCMY BCMY UGS UGS LNG LNG LNG Capacity: Capacity: +4,5 +4,5 mcm/hr mcm/hr Volume: Volume: BCMY BCMY LTDV GTS / Gasunie Deutschland region To secure the NW European gas supply, additional capacity investments are needed. For transit flows to the UK, Belgium and France, investments in border capacity (IOS and additional investments) are required. Furthermore, additional storage capacity is needed as a substitute for the declining national production. Finally, additional LNG receiving capacity is needed to diversify supply.

11 Entry/exit capacity requirement grows until 2020 and stabilizes afterwards

12 2022 Investment Outlook expenditures per year (mln Euro) New connections New capacity investments Uncertainty Money of 2010

13 To conclude Gas roundabout policy is very successful: Security of Supply Liquid Market Infrastructure key enabler Need for new gas supplies and new gas infrastructure Next decade, the gas market will develop further and more network adaptations (investments) are needed

14 Programme Introduction Long term development view Open Seasons MarketTransition Petra Smeets Cees Hut Henk Abbing Antwa Munnik Lunch Customer satisfaction survey Miscellaneous Closing Ruud Wieleman Robert Luchies Petra Smeets

15 Open Seasons: update Open Season 2005 (2010/2011) Open Season 2012 Integrated Open Season (2014) GTS GUD

16 Agenda Construction progress Open Season 2005 Open Season 2012 Planning progress + regulatory developments Integrated Open Season GTS+GUD (2014)

17 Construction projects OS2005 OS2012

18 Open Season 2005: construction progress All OS2005 capacities as planned for October 2010: Delivered on time Example: Scheemda compressor station (-> commissioned before Oct. 10)

19 Open Season 2005: construction progress OS2005 capacities for start up October 2011: Construction on schedule Wijngaarden compressor station (-> Oct. 11): all facilities under construction

20 Open Season 2012: progress Preparations for construction are on schedule for availability of capacities - phase 1: October phase 2: October 2013 Construction has started => Example HDD Beuningen-Ravenstein

21 IOS: update planning Dutch grid IOS-NL scope / measures 48 pipeline Beverwijk-Wijngaarden: 91 km Other measures under preparation include Pipeline sections trajectory Westerschelde West Cambron Pipeline sections trajectory Lemerveld Bathmen Adjustments/measures Oude Statenzijl Station Now: detailed preparations for the required measures including detailed time planning Including information => authorities (permits, licences etc.) incl. Environmental Impact Analysis on Beverwijk-Wijngaarden published for public viewing

22 Regulatory developments relevant for IOS NL Method Decisions: regulatory framework for NL gas transport tariffs and capacity expansions/investments Summer 2010: Method Decisions annulled by the Dutch Court Go decision IOS NL requires a new regulatory framework, however: Final new Method Decisions will be too late to meet the start dates of requested/new capacities Main priority GTS + customers: keep start dates of capacities unaffected HOW? Postpone the latest go decision date for IOS-NL from to GTS discusses with NMa to achieve a solution Preparations for construction will be continued as planned: no time loss up to

23 Programme Introduction Long term development view Open Seasons Market Transition Petra Smeets Cees Hut Henk Abbing Antwa Munnik Lunch Customer satisfaction survey Miscellaneous Closing Ruud Wieleman Robert Luchies Petra Smeets

24 Market transition update Agenda Status Legislation Overview progress: Nomination lead time import-export Market parties Joint tests Bid Price Ladder Increased communication dispatching

25 Status legislation (1) Dutch Gas Act and Code Gasact The Senate will abstain from debating the Gas Act, in stead a vote will take place. GTS expects the Gas Act to be place soon. Related network code: Response to change instruction submitted Draft code decision by NMa expected end November Draft code to EU for notification Start date 1 April 2011 feasible

26 Status legislation (2) European code ERGEG draft Framework Guidelines for balancing under consultation Targets 1. Market responsible for portfolio balancing 2. TSO for risidual system balancing 3. Imbalance contibutors should bear reflective costs 4. Both market and TSO should be able to obtain bal gas 5. Daily balancing with end-of-day cash out Code assignment by European commission

27 Overview progress Nomination lead time & Functionality portal Nomination lead time For storages, feeding points and domestic exits Nomination lead time reduction to 30 min List on the website Possibility to apply for border points Upon request of shipper GTS will contact NNO Under the same conditions as current list Functionality portal & website final

28 Overview progress Market parties Current shippers certified (> 90 %) New parties rapidly catch up Participation in joint test Workshops well attended

29 Joint tests (1) Joint tests Period 1 October-1 April Mandatory for all parties Joint test approach published For each phase a Getting Started published on website Final Getting Started for 1 April We ask you to participate

30 Joint tests (2) Phases Phase 1 October November: SBS & POS OTIS certificate Phase 2 December: programmes and allocation Your damping application is needed! Damping mandatory when protected users in portfolio Assignment: 24 hours webservices download

31 Joint tests (3) Phases Phase 3 January and February - market test including Bid Price Ladder Phase 4 March - metering data

32 Bid Price Ladder (1) Bid Price Ladder Status 8 parties requested to become supplier Contracts ready begin December Contracts signed end December Introduction reserved capacity Bid Price Ladder Part of the code submitted to NMa Contracted via tender procedure

33 Bid Price Ladder (2) Conditions proposed for reserved capacity: Suppliers of reserved capacity will receive a fee Fee socialised Reserved amount always available Amount 2100 MWh/h Offers for reserved capacity combined with the other capacity Price restriction applicable to offers Planning Tender starts December March contracts in place

34 Increased communication dispatching We ask your cooperation: Communication with dispatching department: Use the nomination procedures and nominate timely Use your confirmations Our dispatching can focus on assisting you with remaining problems

35 Finally Thank you for your cooperation Keep participating in the market transition Thank you for your attention

36 Programme Introduction Long term development view Open Seasons Market Transition Petra Smeets Cees Hut Henk Abbing Antwa Munnik Lunch Customer satisfaction survey Miscellaneous Closing Ruud Wieleman Robert Luchies Petra Smeets

37 Programme Introduction Long term development view Open Seasons Market Transition Petra Smeets Cees Hut Henk Abbing Antwa Munnik Lunch Customer satisfaction survey Miscellaneous Closing Ruud Wieleman Robert Luchies Petra Smeets

38 Customer Satisfaction Survey 2010 A (slightly) new approach Ruud Wieleman

39 Agenda CSS a (slightly) new approach: Two-stage missile Structure of the enquiry Customers in a regulated gas world

40 CSS 2010: A two-stage missile Quantitave Survey Motivaction 96 shippers, 282 connected parties Via internet, link sent per Anonymous Qualitative survey Interviews by telephone Face-to-face interview (with or without GTS) Round table discussion

41 Structure of the enquiry (1) Structure based on 5 themes: Communication Products and services Service in general Accounting transactions Image of GTS

42 Structure of the enquiry (2) Structure is broad and deep : Full range of products and services More questions More open questions Actionable results

43 Summary GTS wants to improve We need your feedback for that Even in a regulated gas world there is room for GTS to improve!

44 Programme Introduction Long term development view Open Seasons Market Transition Petra Smeets Cees Hut Henk Abbing Antwa Munnik Lunch Customer satisfaction survey Miscellaneous Closing Ruud Wieleman Robert Luchies Petra Smeets

45 Miscellaneous - agenda Update TSC Update on Network code System Quality Signal Nomflex

46 Update TSC Changes in TSC are limited Possible for the holder of ToU to obtain full capacity right in event of termination of primary right Reference to new cross border services GTS/GUD as published on Further reduction of credit risk period in art Appendix 3 (diversion), 4 (wheeling) and 8 (no time shift): additional network points added App. 9 (capacity tranches): new tranches published Nomflex conditions included in Appendix 10b. Possible to choose timeshift for Q1 2011

47 TSC 2011: towards version 2 Planning new TSC : 1 February: publication draft TSC weeks for you to comment (until 20 February 2011) 1 week to process comments (until 28 February 2011) 1 March 2011: publication of final TSC Possible to choose damping for portfolio

48 Miscellaneous - subjects Update network code

49 Update network code Gasvoorwaarden 29 June: Annulment of the Method Decision Transport, Balancing and Quality Conversion by Court Decision NMa: tariffs for 2011 will be the same as 2010 NMa expects new Method Decision at the end of September: Reply of joint network operators on instruction to amend 'New balancing regime and market model'. NMa expects to publish the draft decision at the end of November.

50 Update network code Gasvoorwaarden 20 October: Joint network operators have withdrawn the proposal 'Contracting by Directly connected End Users'. 10 November: Decision Court on appeal case against the first assessment of the technical conditions

51 Miscellaneous - subjects System Quality Signal

52 Preview of the System Quality Signal (SQS) Preview SQS G-gas oversupply and H-gas shortage H-gas oversupply and G-gas shortage rqc used QC used rqc problem: GTS flow order QC problem: GTS flow order

53 Miscellaneous - subjects Nomflex

54 Changing Combiflex into Nomflex (1) Nomflex will replace Combiflex - from start new balancing regime Combiflex: based on afterwards allocations Nomflex: nomination service based on near real-time allocations Key characteristics unchanged: - Injection capacity: 1 m3/h - Production capacity: 1 m3/h - Volume: 168 m3 - Working gas: filled 50%

55 Changing Combiflex into Nomflex (2) Use Nomflex (options): - Day ahead in your programme to match profiled offtake with flat intake - Within-day to solve unwanted imbalances - Take advantage of high/low TTF prices - Take position (POS) to benefit from bid price ladder and/or Contracted on yearly or quarterly basis If end position of working volume is not equal to start position at end of contracted period: Settlement

56 Changing Combiflex into Nomflex (3) Yearly booking 2011 will be combination of both services End of Combiflex: Reset to middle of buffer start of Nomflex Planning: December: 2011 and Q1 open for interested shippers - 8 December: assignment to shippers - 9 December: contract supplied to suppliers

57 A final remark Booking requests with start date of January 2011: Add your booking requests before 17 December 2010 to be sure they will be handled in time!

58 Thank you for your attention