CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation

Transcription

1 CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation Bruno Mouche, CERN Electrical Engineering Group EN-EL 23 November 2017

2 Presentation outline Part 1: Introduction to electricity at CERN Part 2: Electricity consumption monitoring tool (WebEnergy) Part 3: Electricity consumption forecasting tool 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 2

3 Introduction to electricity at CERN (Part 1) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 3

4 CERN s accelerator complex LHC SPS PS 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 4

5 ME50 L9 L59 L1 L8 L6 L4 L2 CERN s electrical network (Single Line Diagram) 4 high voltage levels 400 kv (main incomer, FR) 66 kv (LHC machine) 18 kv (main distribution) 3.3 kv (power motors) kv alternative supply (CH) limited power 400 kv BE 18kV Pulsed Network (SPS / North Area) SPS Comp. Booster 17 MVAr BEQ3 EHT1 BEQ2 EHT2 BEQ1 90MVA 90MVA SPS SPS PS.. SPS Main conversion stations EHT102 ME59 70MVA ME9 Machine Meyrin - PSC ME59 ISOLDE NA NA BE9-18kV Autotransfert Backup lines to Meyrin & Prévessin General Services WA EHT3 90MVA 400 kv CERN 15 MVA ME9 General Services Meyrin - PSC ME10 General Services SPS / North Area / Prévessin BE91 Admin. G Prévessin 513 Computer Center FRANCE 400 kv RTE (Bois Tollot) EHT7 BE9 70MVA MP7 30MVA 66kV MP5 60MVA G ME9 Safety Network PS EHT4 110MVA EHT102 LHC1 70MVA SEM12 EHT102 38MVA Comp. 25 MVAr EHT5 110MVA EHT102 38MVA Comp. 25 MVAr EHT102 38MVA LHC Machine Network LHC General Services Loop Comp. 25 MVAr EHT102 38MVA Comp. 25 MVAr EHT103 38MVA LHC EHT611 60MVA EHT612 60MA 18 kv 130kV SIG SWITZERLAND 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 5

6 Electricity consumption: key figures (1) GWh (annual consumption) GWh (normal operation year) 350 GWh (shutdown year) MW (max active power) 185 MW (daily average) 200 MW (10-min average) 320 MW (instantaneous) City of Bucharest (~2 M inhab.): ~ 5000 GWh City of Bucharest: ~ 600 MW (daily average) Run 1 Long shutdown 1 Run Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 6

7 Electricity consumption: key figures (2) Run 1 Run 2 Long shutdown 1 57 % 25 % 11 % 7 % * * Site base = office buildings (Meyrin & Prevessin sites) central services (computer center, pumping station) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 7

8 Electricity consumption: key figures (3) Current unit prices (up to ) (French supply only) Electricity: 37 / MWh (winter: 45; summer: 32) Provider: Transmission: 3.1 / MWh Provider: No taxes (international organization status) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 8

9 Electricity consumption monitoring tool (WebEnergy) (Part 2) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 9

10 ME50 L9 L59 L1 L8 L6 L4 L2 Basic principles (1) HISTORY 400 kv CERN FRANCE 400 kv RTE (Bois Tollot) Before 2012: publication of monthly reports manually generated PDF format 2012: start of the project of online tool 2013: first release of the WebEnergy : following Long Shutdown #1, complete review and upgrade (engine, counters, formulas) 2016: full usage and publicity via various CERN forums BE 18kV Pulsed Network (SPS / North Area) Comp. Booster 17 MVAr BEQ3 EHT1 BEQ2 EHT2 BEQ1 90MVA 90MVA SPS SPS PS.. SPS Main conversion stations EHT102 ME59 70MVA ME9 Machine Meyrin - PSC ME59 ISOLDE NA NA BE9-18kV Autotransfert Backup lines to Meyrin & Prévessin General Services WA EHT3 90MVA 15 MVA ME9 General Services Meyrin - PSC ME10 General Services SPS / North Area / Prévessin EHT611 60MVA 130kV SIG BE91 Admin. SWITZERLAND G Prévessin EHT612 60MA 513 Computer Center EHT7 BE9 70MVA MP7 30MVA 66kV MP5 60MVA G ME9 Safety Network EHT4 110MVA EHT102 LHC1 70MVA SEM12 EHT102 38MVA Comp. 25 MVAr EHT5 110MVA EHT102 38MVA Comp. 25 MVAr EHT102 38MVA LHC Machine Network LHC General Services Loop Comp. 25 MVAr EHT102 38MVA Comp. 25 MVAr EHT103 38MVA RTE official counter CERN s 1st stage of counters (other counters are disseminated throughout the high voltage network) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 10

11 Basic principles (2) Use of positive and negative energy counters, embedded in the HV protection relays ; Named Ea+, Ea- (Energie active +/-) P (MW) 1 counter = 1 HV feeder Logged by the SCADA and stored in long-term database Ea+ (MWh) t counter reset Ea+(1) Ea+(2) t Daily consumption of facilities and sites calculated by addition (or substraction) of counters, following a table of coefficients («counting tree», published to users) Manual corrections possible Ea- (MWh) Ea = Ea+ Ea- P_avg = Ea / t Ea- t 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 11

12 Counting tree Level 1 CERN (classified by site) CERN (other classific ation) Level 2 LHC SPS PS Meyrin Level 3 Machine Experi ments General Services Pulsed Stable Magn ets PS Comp Center Level 4 Cryo CV 1 2 Level Counters Feeders 18kV / 3.3 kv Datapoints EMD118/BE Ea+ EMD212/BE Ea+ Ea- Ea- 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 12

13 Technical features / Usage statistics Feeders 257 energy counters ( ) 18 kv / 3.3 kv SPS Computer 116 end-consumers ( Cryo LHC4, Magnets, Center ) For each consumer, 1 daily value of average power and energy Display of yearly curves, with possible zoom on months Data available since 2008 New data published daily Global accuracy: 99.8% w.r.t. EDF invoice ~ 150 single users per year, from a large variety of CERN departments (50%) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 13

14 Tool overview Engine: Java 8 & Jqplot 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 14

15 Usage of the monitoring tool Understanding of CERN s processes and their influence on consumption + tracking of evolutions pilot consolidations of the electrical network Periodic communication to CERN s Energy Management Panel (EMP), bringing together CERN s major consumers: exchange of information; communication channels. Consumption forecasts (see next part) CERN internal budget plans Efficient purchasing of electricity Various use : open to all CERN users 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 15

16 Electricity consumption forecasting tool (Part 3) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 16

17 CERN needs for electricity consumption forecasts (1) Need #1 (up to 2013): CERN s internal budget plans 5 years plan 1 value per month Need #2 ( ): new electricity contract ( open market) Tendering process Need for increased time-resolution : 1 value per day over 5 years 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 17

18 CERN needs for electricity consumption forecasts (2) Need #3 (2016): Purchasing of electricity under the new contract framework (open market) Rewards for accurate forecasts (bonus & super-bonus) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 18

19 Overview of the forecasting tool (1) In-house developed tool (Microsoft Excel + VBA macros) For a list of 32 high level consumers (constituting the entirety of CERN) a certain number of consumption modes (RUN, TECHNICAL STOP, LONG SHUTDOWN ) are defined, with the corresponding daily power foreseen at a given period (RUN2, RUN3 ) Pavg_daily LHC LHC from (MW) General services Ventilation RUN 2 RUN TS YETS LS RUN 3 RUN (to be TS assessed) YETS LS additional modes (STARTING and STOPPING) are available for linear transition between two modes 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 19

20 Overview of the forecasting tool (2) The 32 consumers are grouped into 14 machines (according to their possible dependencies in terms of schedule) Based on official physics schedules of the 14 machines (or typical consumption patterns) the forecast daily electrical powers for each of the 32 high level consumers are tabulated and available for display and calculations DATES 32 CONSUMERS COLOR LEGEND FOR EACH MODE 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 20

21 Overview of the forecasting tool (3) Possibility of manual corrections for unmodeled / unforeseen events The tool also includes a versioning capability to keep track and easily recall the previous forecasts continuous improvement 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 21

22 Forecast VS reality Thanks to deep integration with the WebEnergy monitoring tool: throughout the year, the forecast curves can be compared to the real consumptions, at CERN level and for each consumer The comparison is presented 5 times per year to the Energy Management Panel to get feedback, discuss the deviations, improve the model, create new consumption modes, etc. 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 22

23 Usage of the forecasts (1) : MTP Editing the electricity document for CERN s MTP (Medium Term Plan) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 23

24 Usage of the forecasts (2) : contract management CERN s electricity contract includes a monthly bonus system for accurate forecasts (new forecasts can be sent anytime, with 2 days notice) Discount = 0.1 / MWh if monthly_deviation 15% Additional 0.05 / MWh if monthly_deviation 5% monthly_deviation = hourly_deviations(mwh) monthly_consumption(mwh) Marginal amount ( % of the bill) but in absolute value = ~100 k discount per year = good incentive 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 24

25 Communication with the electricity provider (2016) First year: tuning of the model... Sent to EDF = model communication and modelization delays (dev 20%) (15%) (16%) (13%) (17%) (6%) (6%) (8%) (8%) (8%) (14%) (11%) = Main manual corrections REASONS FOR REFORECASTING: Manual correction of model drift: 8 Info incident: 2 Info beams operation: 2 Schedule change: 2 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 25

26 Communication with the electricity provider (2017) Second year: quite good Sent to EDF = model communication and modelization delays (dev 14%) (14%) (11%) (8%) (9%) (7%) (8%) (4.9%) (6%) (7%) Super bonus in august. REASONS FOR REFORECASTING: Info beams operation: 1 Schedule change: 5 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 26

27 Conclusion CERN has put in place a forecasting tool that is now working satisfactorily It relies on multiple inputs (power per mode for each main user, machine schedules) and is complemented by a monitoring tool open to CERN community These tools allow regular energy management and monitoring. In addition, it is expected that the acquired knowledge will be an asset when retendering for the next electricity contract (2021 onwards) The monitoring tool will also serve as a basis for a project of ʺvirtual invoicingʺ to the main consumers (consumption awareness) Next steps considered: Continuous maintenance/upgrades (machines/modes/electrical infrastructure) Increased time resolution Monitoring of reactive power Alternative counting tree electrical network oriented (load of substations, busbars, cables) 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 27

28 Thank you Questions?

29 Spare slides 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 29

30 CERN s electrical network (geographical) 4 high voltage levels 400 kv (main incomer, FR) 6 switchgears 66 kv (LHC machine) 17 switchgears 18 kv (main distribution) 3.3 kv (power motors) ~220 switchgears kv backup supply (CH) owned by Swiss DSO ~100 substations / 900 switchgears R.T.E. 400 kv 66 kv PS Backup 130 kv Limited power (60 MVA) 18 kv 3.3 kv 1 km 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 30

31 Basic principles (2) Use of positive and negative energy counters, embedded in the HV protection relays ; Named Ea+, Ea- (Energie active +/-) P (MW) 1 counter = 1 HV feeder Logged by the SCADA and stored in long-term database t Time integration = memory = security against loss of data (communication problems ) BUT needs detection of counter resets Ea+ (MWh) counter reset Ea+(1) Ea- (MWh) Ea+(2) t Ea- Daily consumption of facilities and sites calculated by addition (or substraction) of counters, following a table of coefficients («counting tree», published to users) Manual corrections possible Ea = Ea+ Ea- P_avg = Ea / t t 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 31

32 Questions Time resolution 1 day => 10 min? We intend to do it for internal needs (sizing of the network, roadmap for consolidations), but not for forecasting purposes : consumption variations are not predictable at this scale. + Low resolution of some counters (MWh). 23 Nov 2017 B. Mouche - CERN electricity consumption forecast & validation 32