A story of Costs and Prices

Transcription

1 A story of Costs and Prices PV Markzttan Masson, Director Ir Gaëtan Masson Director, Vice-Chairman, EU PV Technology & Innovation Platform Operating Agent, IEA-PVPS Task 1

2 BECQUEREL INSTITUTE Research oriented Institute and consulting company for Solar Technologies. Global PV Market Analysis including competitiveness and economics. Industry analysis together with quality & reliability. Integration into electricity systems (grids and markets). In house experts / Global network of experts and stakeholders PV Market Alliance partner 2

3 FROM 1.1 TO 50 GW IN 11 YEARS 50 GW 230 GW IEA-PVPS

4 CONFIDENCE IN NUMBERS? From 50 to 59 GW installed in 2015 Who s right, who s wrong? Counting apples, pears and more? Some rules Counting AC numbers is simply wrong switch to DC or count both. What does «installed» means? Commissioned? Production > shipments > installations 4

5 CONFIDENCE IN NUMBERS? The sum of PV installations until end of 2015 is significantly lower than shipments. What about the reality of production numbers? What about inventories? What about guarantees? What about installations in non reporting countries? 5

6 TOP 10 INSTALLATIONS AND TOTALS 6

7 ENERGY VS POWER PV Market Alliance 7

8 DRIVERS? IEA-PVPS preliminary 2015 data 8

9 PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9

10 A TALE OF 2 MARKETS Distributed PV Producers Self-consumption, energy effiency, grid parity, competition with utilities distribution business Prosumers One technology Centralized PV Grid injection, PPA, competition with utilities generation business 10

11 THE EVOLUTION OF SEGMENTS GW in

12 ROOFTOP PV DEVELOPMENT PV Market Alliance 12

13 CHALLENGES FOR DISTRIBUTED PV Onsite Self- Consumption Excess PV Electricity Right to selfconsume Revenues for selfconsumed PV electricity Charges to finance T&D costs Value of excess electricity Maximum timeframe for compensation Self-consumption is legally permitted Savings on the variable price of electricity from the grid Additional costs associated to self-consumption such as fees or taxes may exist Net metering: energetic compensation (credit in kwh) Net billing: monetary compensation (credit in monetary unit) Self-consumption: real time (e.g 15 minutes) Net metering and net billing: time frame is typically one year although there are some exceptions (from credits that can be rolled over to the following billing cycle to quarterly compensation) IEA-PVPS - Key: Same between shemes Main differences 13

14 WHICH POLICIES? Production based: classical "FiT" style. No self consumption Self consumption with constrains Self consumption + FiT Net billing Net metering Self consumption + Premium Right to selfconsume Revenues from self consumed PV Additional revenues on selfconsumed PV Charges to finance T&D cost Revenues from excess electricity Maximum timeframe for compensation Not Allowed Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes N/A Savings on the electricity bill Savings on the electricity bill Netting of production revenues and consumption costs Savings on the electricity bill Savings on the electricity bill N/A No No No No Premium N/A Yes No No No No N/A Zero < retail price <= retail price = retail price > retail price N/A Real time Real time Long period Long period Real time 14

15 COMPETITIVE TENDERS 15

16 COMPETITIVE TENDERS Is 0,03 USD/kWh realistic? What is needed? Yield: 2000 kwh/kwp CAPEX: 0,7 EUR 0,8 USD/Wp OPEX: 15 EUR/kW WACC: 4% (nominal) Degradation: 0,5% 16

17 ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE ON PRICES 17

18 PV PRICE LEARNING CURVE 97% production We are here 0,4 USD/Wp 20% LC 0,2 USD/Wp 37% LC 18

19 PUBLIC DATA AND FORECASTS Jinko announces (Q2 2016): 0,37 USD/Wp production costs (others are close: 0,39 0,43) First Solar below these numbers? Prices and cost decline on a 30%+ learning curve Official market prices (Q2 2016): 0,44 USD/Wp Prices for large orders: Down to 0,4x USD/Wp? Super competitive tenders (Dubai, Jordan, Peru, India) are done with multi Si, CdTe or asi. Large part of the PV market with higher prices! Minimum system price = 0,40 EUR/WP + BoS 0,25 + margin 19

20 WHICH PERSPECTIVES? 50 GW and growing Globalized market with different needs per climate zones, segment, application: modules can t be commodities anymore >> time to diversify and innovate Lowest prices seen as NOT the reality of 80% of the market. Gross margins around 15 25% can t afford modules below 0.50 USD/Wp (for now). 40% of the market might move towards self consumption fast, in segments where the price is less essential. Need for reliable data on market, costs, prices, industry time to share 20

21 Thanks for your attention Becquerelinstitute.org