SPV Market Research Technology Shipments International Industry Workshop on CIGS at EU PVSEC 2016 in Munich

Transcription

1 1 SPV Market Research Technology Shipments International Industry Workshop on CIGS at EU PVSEC 2016 in Munich Paula Mints

2 SPV Market Research Methodology 2 Market research is the objective study of a subject using data gathered through primary research to characterize, analyze and forecast demand and supply for, in this case, the photovoltaic industry. It is a specific discipline where something is counted from point a to point b, then point b to point c, and so on. The point is to eliminate double counting and arrive at specific metrics for the purpose of defining a market or an industry. For the purpose of this practice, the raw material is counted until it becomes a wafer/ingot, then to the cell, then to the module, then to the first point of sale in the market (first buyer), then to the installation (end user). Thin film shipments are assessed using the same methodology. In the case of SPV Market Research the data go back >35 years, allowing for the identification of trends over time. A classic market research focus should be on quantifiable metrics (data), announcements are not data. The purpose of market research is to provide an objective analysis that managers and executives can use for business planning purposes. The data presented in this report reflect primary field survey effort, interviews, coverage of major technical conferences, review of available literature, and summary of government programs. The data used for this analysis reflects information gathered from surveys of both photovoltaic cell/module manufacturers (supply-side) and demand-side participants, such as photovoltaic distributors, system integrators, dealers, installers, OEMs, etc. Survey effort includes silicon feedstock manufacturers, wafer manufactures, and end users of PV products. The analysis also reflects an understanding of the manufacturing capability of the industry. This combination provides SPV Market Research with a realistic and balanced basis from which to view the current and future progress of the photovoltaic industry. To avoid double-counting, SPV Market Research analyzed shipments (sales) of internal cells. Shipments are considered an important metric, valuable to management decisions. The data reflect 90% of photovoltaic module manufacturers.

3 Technology Contribution to Total Shipments

4 4 Crystalline and Thin Film Shipments Over Time

5 Total Shipments

6 2015 PV Industry Metrics Viewed together look like an uneven fence 6 Installations lag module shipments sometimes by a year or two depending on the application. Grid connections lag installations depending on the utility and on the size of the installation.

7 2015 Announcements Versus Reality 7 Manufacturer 2015 Module Assembly Capacity 2015 Crystalline & Thin Film Capacity 2015 Announced Shipments Difference Between Cell Capacity & Announced Shipments Trina Solar JA Solar Canadian Solar Jinko Solar Renesola Totals Manufacturer 2015 Module Assembly Capacity 2015 Crystalline & Thin Film Capacity 2015 Announced Shipments Difference Between Cell Capacity & Announced Shipments US Europe Japan Malaysia Singapore Philippines India South Korea ROW Taiwan China Total World The size of the photovoltaic (solar) industry in any year is limited by the available crystalline and thin film cell commercial capacity - not pilot scale, not lab scale, commercial capacity. Manufacturers cannot ship more crystalline and thin film product than their available cell capacity in any year unless they have inventory from the previous year. Outsourcing, that is, the buying and selling of cells and modules from manufacturer to manufacturer with everyone reporting the same reshipped MWs, has oversized the PV industry overtime, often significantly.

8 Crystalline and Thin Film Shipment Shares Despite outpacing global shipment growth, CIGS/CIS share of total shipments remains low

9 Regional Contribution to Thin Film and Crystalline Shipments

10 Thin film Shipments Shipments of CIGS/CIS led by Solar Frontier CIS technology shipments have outpaced the CAGR of the Industry from 2010 through 2015

11 ETIP PV views on trends and challanges for CIGS technology Marko Topic on behalf of the EU PVTP Steering Committee 7th Int. Workshop on CIGS Solar Cell Technology Munich, Germay, 23 June iwcigstech 23 June 2016

12 7 iwcigstech 23 June

13 SET plan & Junker s plan - Initiative for Leadership in PV The EU PV industry sector is still well positioned along the value chain and the EU has leading research institutes on PV But: urgent need to build on the existing PV industrial and R&I base in Europe, with a view to re-launching cell & module manufacturing This calls for the achievement of ambitious technology and manufacturing related targets, as well as for regulatory and market design measures PV elements as building materials can develop to a world-wide market with huge opportunities for the European industry 7 iwcigstech 23 June 2016

14 SET Plan Declaration of Intent: Agreed Stategic Targets in PV 1. Achieve major advances in efficiency of established technologies (c-si and TFs) and new concepts Increase PV module efficiency by at least 20% by Reduce the cost of key technologies Reduce turn-key system costs by at least 20% by Further enhance lifetime, quality and sustainability Minimize life-cycle environmental impact and increase recyclability 7 iwcigstech 23 June 2016

15 SET Plan Declaration of Intent: Agreed Stategic Targets in PV 4. Make mass realisation of "(near) Zero Energy Buildings possible by Building-Integrated PV (BIPV) 5. Achieve major advances in manufacturing and installation Increase large scale manufacturing concepts and capabilities by demonstrating PV production capabilities of at least 20 m 2 per minute by iwcigstech 23 June 2016

16 Thank you for your attention Enjoy the 7 IWCIGSTech and EU PVSEC! 7 iwcigstech 23 June 2016