2018 Commerce and Payments Outlook

Transcription

1 2018 Commerce and Payments Outlook First Data Information and Analytics Solutions This document is a collection of opinions that are offered solely as a courtesy, and they do not represent business or legal advice. The research is gathered from a wide range of industry publications, analyst reports, white papers, websites, and interviews. The statements in this document related to future business or financial performance may constitute forward-looking statements and actual results or performance may vary.

2 2018 Payment industry outlook Top trends Retailer and Technology Partnerships Alipay & WeChat pay Chinese Mobile Wallets Banking Environment Retail Digital Deals FinTechs Eye Bank Status PSD2 Blockchain Retailers Trying Smaller Stores P2P 2.0 On-Demand Services in Physical Retail Mobile Only Bank Accounts Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality IoT Collaboration Delivery Changing Physical Retail Rental & Subscription Services Artificial Intelligence 2

3 Retailers smaller is better? In the rise of online shopping, big-box retailers are experimenting with smaller brick-and-mortar stores Retailers testing smaller physical stores Why small-stores? Response to shifting consumer demands, growing populations in metro areas, and increased online shopping Scaled-back spaces can be more profitable per square foot Forces retailers to be smarter about inventory and can serve as a location for online pick up/returns Allows retailers to tailor product offerings to the local area, making the experience feel more personal Overall, retailers are aiming to become a more desirable place to shop Sources: Company websites; How Department Stores Will Re-Invent Themselves in 2018, CNBC, December

4 Delivery changing physical retailing Same day delivery is the latest battleground for physical retailers Retailers with Same Day Delivery 16% 51% Changing the Retail Experience Consumers expect convenience both online and offline Retailers leverage their local, physical footprint Developing new services for in-store pick up and fulfillment, delivery logistics, and real-time inventory management Pay-off is significant: slows the march of competitors and allows for more advanced pricing, margin management, and incremental service fees Selected Retailers Delivery Partner Services 32%+ of Retailers Offer 3 rd Party Delivery Services Sources: Digital Commerce Survey 2017, BRP Consulting, 2017; Company websites; press releases. Acquired by a Retailer 4

5 On-demand services meets physical retailing acquires acquires The gig economy (on-demand services) coming to more stores near you to strengthen its digital customer service capabilities and expand its home goods and installation offerings. to create an omnichannel tech services platform to provide IT support services to business customers. offers partners with Sources: Company websites. a marketplace of service providers where customers can shop for professional service help. to offer home improvement professionals and advice to customers. 5

6 The rise of rental and subscription retail Consumers want value, flexibility, and personalized discovery The concept gained prominence with startups and is now spreading to larger retailers + 6

7 Retail deals for digital Increasingly retail and digital/technology are converging Traditional retailers are turning to startup M&A to catch up on the retail transformation Strengthen ecommerce reach Connecting with customers Add digital capabilities Online shopping Mobile AR / VR / 3D Product selection Chat / messaging Big data Logistics Personalization Robotics / automation Sources: The state of the deal: M&A trends 2018, Deloitte, November 15,

8 Retailer and technology partnerships Unexpected partnerships are formed as competition increases, particularly in rise of voice-ordering Notable new partnerships made between retailers and tech giants: Why partner? If you can t beat them, join them. Increase customer traffic and expand online presence Ensure a position on the next generation of platforms (i.e. voice-ordering, smart home products) Partnerships highlight retailers willingness to increase dependence on shopping and payments technology Sources: Company websites. 8

9 All aboard for IoT collaboration Grocery & Restaurant Tech Retailers Banks Industries working together through CONNECTIVITY connected commerce to Insurance Auto reach more households. Travel & Entertainment Devices & Appliances Third Party Developers Content 9

10 Augmented reality and virtual reality in retail Two powerful technologies could reshape commerce, but we believe AR may be the winner Augmented Reality: It s Real But Virtual Reality? Sources: Warby Parker app; Amazon app; The Verge 10/25/17; Lowe s Introduces In-Store Navigation Using Augmented Reality, Lowe s press release, 3/23/17; Dailymail; VR: The Brands that are imagining a new commerce reality, Forbes, March 7,

11 Artificial intelligence boosts retail and banking Utilizing machine learning and AI to strengthen products and services and streamline operations Sample Uses Cases Voice-activated Assistants Local Experiences Fraud Detection Contact Centers Sales forecasting Chat Bots Loan Underwriting Chat Bots Targeted/ Personalized ads Merchants Recommendations Identity Verification Banks Process Automation Promotion Management Fashion & Beauty Personal Financial Mgmt. Trading uses AI to target ads to individuals based on what they are talking about on social platforms. uses AI-based voice technology in its call centers to route customer complaints to the appropriate experts. uses AI-based machine learning to offer consumers a personalized clothing subscription service. uses AI to enhance real-time fraud detection and to increase the accuracy of transaction approvals. 11 Sources: Company websites.

12 Alipay and WeChat pay Chinese mobile wallets are forging into new frontiers Undisputed Mobile Wallet Leaders WeChat Diving into MicroPayments Alipay Expanding Throughout Asia MOBILE WALLET USERS WeChat Pay 600M Alipay 529M PayPal 210M ApplePay 87M Klarna 60M +10% Of WeChat users have micro tipped Tips often range from as little as $0.15 to $1.50 Sources: Press releases; web sites; China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. 12

13 Blockchain s great uphill climb Distributed ledger gains are being overshadowed by the cryptocurrency hype cycle Corporates on the Hype Machine Enterprises Moving out of the Research Lab Technical Advancement Blockchain s Challenges Too often blockchain experiments are tech solutions in search of a business problem Massive speculation in cryptocurrencies creates noise and negative connotations Solving for the fiat currency on/off ramp 80% of Blockchain projects fail to meet expectations Blockchain s Hope Advancements in speed (Layer 2) Development of so-called interledgers to connect disparate ledgers (bitcoin, XRP) Flood of capital into cryptocurrency markets could drive accelerated innovation Sources: Forrester: Predictions

14 Banking outlook We expect the operating environment to remain favorable for the banks Wall Street Expects Mid-Single Digit Revenue Growth to Continue Revenue growth 6% Key themes in % Bull Case Bear Case 2% Fed Raises Interest Rates Three-to-Four Times Low Single-Digit Loan Growth Strong Economy Supports Benign Credit Outlook Yield Curve Continues to Flatten 0% 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Favorable Regulatory Environment Tech Spend Weighs on Operating Leverage Sources: FDIC Quarterly Profile; Thomson Reuters Eikon; S&P. Note: Growth rates from come from the FDIC s Quarterly Banking Profile. Forecasted growth for 2018 looks at aggregate Wall Street estimates for the S&P Bank Index. 14

15 Banking and technology 2018 could open the door for more FinTech companies to become banks New U.S. Bank Charters Despite all the innovation in FinTech, new bank charters are at an all time low Key Things to Watch OCC Head Joseph Otting Supports the Creation of a FinTech Charter 1 Square s ILC Application Could Set a Precedent for Other FinTech Companies Regulatory Bodies Around the World Are Adjusting Rules for FinTech 2 Sources: 1) FinTech Charter Is Still in Play, The Wall Street Journal, December 201, 2017, 2) Fine Tuning Licenses for Banks, ECB, November 15,

16 US banks offer mobile only accounts Big banks target millennials and the underserved with mobile only banking alternatives All Mobile Banking Apps Common features Mobile checking and savings account opening Offers a debit card, but no physical checks Remote deposit capture Send money No overdraft fees Spend tracking and tagging Savings tools Bills management 16 Sources: Company websites.

17 PSD2: Overcoming near-term hurdles KEY TENETS MODELS OBSTACLES Modernization Transparency Competition Security Consumer protection Faster payments PISP AISP ASPSP Primary Challenge: Strong customer authentication (SCA) Lack of clarity leading to inaction Inapplicability of some solutions to mobile / in-app Varying risk management proposals 17

18 P2P 2.0: In pursuit of financial relevance Venmo, Zelle, et al pivot towards merchant and biller payments P2P 1.0 Consumer Only, Limited Revenues P2P 2.0 New Ways to Pay Merchants Businesses Consumer P2P Apps Billers P2P Payments to Exceed $120B this Year Zelle Makes it Debut Big Banks Show Major P2P Growth PYPL Buys Tio Venmo Now Accepted Networks for $223M at 2M Merchants US Bank Announces Disbursements via Zelle Sources: Press releases 18

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