1. Reasons for the Recommendation Target Price until (12/31/2015): $94

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Charles Park
6 years ago
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1 Recommendation: Buy 1. Reasons for the Recommendation Target Price until (12/31/2015): $94 In the 2012 PepsiCo 10-k management stated that PepsiCo expects to return $6.4 billion to shareholders in 2013, which they did exactly through 3.4 billion in dividends and $3.0 billion in share repurchases 1. They had similar expectations for 2012, which they also returned $6.5 billion in Now in the newest company 10-k, which is for the year 2013, PepsiCo expects to return $8.7 billion in 2014, 3.7 billion of which are dividends and $5 billion of share repurchases 2. PepsiCo stated that in June of 2014 Dividends will increase from $ or $2.27 per share to $2.62 per share. According to Yahoo! Finance PepsiCo s current dividend yield is 2.7%. If we take into account this increase in quarterly dividends, these imply a dividend yield barley below 3% at 2.95%, or let s just say about 3%. In 2015 a dividend of $0.655 quarterly equates to $2.62. This dividend increase would push PepsiCo s dividend yield above 3%, or about 3.06%, which is above The Coca-Cola Companies current dividend yield of 3% according to Yahoo! Finance. Cash Returns to shareholders in share repurchases and dividends are something PepsiCo does quite consistently, having paying dividends since PepsiCo has a strong ability to generate cash flows through operations. This cash flow is either then returned to shareholders or reinvested to promote innovation and impact topline growth. As a dividend stock within the Regents portfolio PepsiCo continues to be credible when it comes to stating expectations and goals for dividends and repurchases, and consistency in performing accordingly. I am confident PepsiCo will continue returning money to shareholders through share repurchases on top of their current dividend yield. Emerging markets provide PepsiCo with opportunities for growth that are in line with their capabilities of being such a large global company. Emerging markets such as Brazil, India and Russia are substantial sources of growth. The company captured 9% organic revenue from emerging markets including these as well as others, which followed 10% organic revenue growth for all of , 8 PepsiCo states to have a strategy to continue to capture short-term gains through markets such as these. PepsiCo and Taiwan s Tingyi have entered a deal with Disney that will have significant impacts on the Chinese beverage market, as PepsiCo will supply drinks for the new Disneyland set to open in Shanghai in This opportunity could be a major driver for revenue growth in the AMEA segment, and steal market share in China from Coke which had a similar alliance with Disney for the last 25 years 4. PepsiCo has further plans of targeting the growth prospects in China, which would be utilized by investments such as the opening of a research and development plant in Shanghai which enables PepsiCo to develop 1 PepsiCo k 2 PepsiCo k

2 products geared toward tastes that the locals prefer 3. As China surpassed the US as the world s largest retail grocery market, growth in China is something PepsiCo intends to get a piece of. Standard & Poor s Economics projected that the United States economy would grow 2.5% in As the US economy grows revenues in the industries tend to as well, and this would be another source for PepsiCo growth. Modest revenue growth is expected for the food and beverage industry players, which will be effected by a positive outlook on commodity cost pressures declining in Because of the size and strength of PepsiCo the risk associated with the company is very low as well as revenue volatility is projected to be low. This is due to PepsiCo s ability to generate revenue and cash flows, as well as its strong globalization. These qualities provide investors with a low risk, which could reflect PepsiCo s beta of calculated from the portfolio manager s during the holding period. This is the lowest beta in the portfolio of all legacy stocks covered by security analysts this semester. However, according to S&P s MarketScope Advisor and Yahoo! Finance, PepsiCo has a beta of 0.54 and 0.36, respectively. This provides the portfolio with less risk and, therefore a loss in the downside. For every company there are positives as well as negatives. I see a negative aspect of PepsiCo as being instilled in industries or products that are known for their unhealthiness. Consumers are undergoing a change in consciousness as they prefer healthier products rather than the unhealthy ones they use to consume. As consumers change their preferences to healthier products PepsiCo s revenue from unhealthy products such as soda and potato chips will decline. This health conscious craze could potentially impact the carbonated beverage and snack segments unless. Consumers are weary of snack foods and beverages that could potentially result in health problems such as obesity, high blood pressure or cardiovascular diseases. As manufacturers are aware of shifts in consumer preferences I expect to see large amounts of research and development of technologies and innovations such as attempts to reduce the amount of oil potato chips absorb and gluten free products in order produce new products geared towards health conscious consumers. 2. Company Analysis PepsiCo is multinational food and beverage provider with six reportable segments in Frito- Lay North America (FLNA), Quaker Foods North America (QFNA), and Latin American Food and snack businesses (LAF) are three segments that are included in PepsiCo Americas Foods. FLNA contributed 21% of net revenue and 35% of operating profit, QFNA contributed 4% of net revenue and 6% of operating profit, and LAF contributed 12% of net revenue and 11% of operating profit. PepsiCo Americas Beverage (PAB) includes North American and Latin American beverage businesses, which contributed 32% Net Revenue and 26% Operating Profit. Europe includes beverage, food and snack businesses in Europe and South Africa, which contributed 21% of net revenue and 12% of operating profit. PepsiCo Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA) include beverage, food and snack businesses in AMEA, excluding South Africa, which contributed 10% of net revenue and 10% of operating profit. 51% of net revenue is obtained in the United States, 7% in Russia, 6% in Mexico, 5% in Canada, 3% in the United Kingdom, 3% in Brazil, and 25% in other countries. 2

3 Strengths PepsiCo s strong global presence, being able to reach more than 200 countries, as a leader in the global snack food and beverage industry enables the globally recognized company to have significant brand loyalty as well as brand recognition. Significant brand recognition allows marketing and advertising campaigns to succeed. Product diversity is strength of PepsiCo s. PepsiCo also has an extremely diversified product portfolio which is reflected through its six reportable segments, producing popular brands such as Gatorade, Frito Lay, Pepsi, Tropicana, and Yum! Brands, just to name a few. PepsiCo s diversified product portfolio potentially hedges itself from risks within specific industries such as declining consumption of carbonated beverages, which other companies cannot as effectively. Because of this strong global presence, PepsiCo is an enormous company. PepsiCo is able to generate strong cash flows, which in turn could potentially be returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. The size of this company also enables PepsiCo to use economies of scale and scope reducing average costs per unit potentially increasing profit margins. Weaknesses Strong competition within the industries that PepsiCo operates is a significant weakness. PepsiCo competes in industries in which consumers identify the products they want with brand image. PepsiCo competes against highly recognized companies that have high brand loyalty and recognition, such as The Coca-Cola Company. Some would argue that Coca-Cola has one of the strongest brand images in the world, and therefore, PepsiCo has a significantly weaker brand image. The products PepsiCo produces have a large number of similar and substitute products that make it easy for consumers to switch brands and products. Companies such as Coca-Cola also having such strong brand awareness, recognition and loyalty is a weakness that could affect PepsiCo market share in industries they both operate. Opportunities Talks of the potential for at home carbonated beverages have been rattling the internet, as Coca- Cola invested $1.2 billion in Keurig Green Mountain 6. Indra Nooyi, PepsiCo s CEO, also stated there is potential in partnering with Green Mountain; however they might try something different. PepsiCo has also partnered with Bevyz, which makes a counter top system that produces multiple drinks combining a water cooler, coffee and tea machine, soft drink, and juice dispenser. This is set to be available in May which occurs before the Keurig Cold. If this happens PepsiCo could have a first mover advantage potentially obtaining revenue and market share before Coca-Cola s version is released. Shifts in consumer trends will cause consumers to abandon old products such as soda, enabling PepsiCo to attempt to steal market share in certain industries from major competitors such as The Coca- Cola Company. Threats Major threats are input price fluctuation and foreign exposure. Input prices will always constantly fluctuate due to things such as unfavorable weather putting upward pressure on agriculture. Globalization also causes threats to rise in currency exchange rate risk, which can be observed with Venezuela in 2013, which had an after-tax impact of -$0.07 on net income attributable to PepsiCo per diluted common share. Globalization also causes exposure to foreign political risks.

4 Public controversies such as the usage of water resulting in litigation or bad publicity could materially affect PepsiCo. Public litigation or controversies also affect PepsiCo s brand image in a negative way which impacts brand loyalty and recognition. 3. Industry Analysis PepsiCo has 6 reportable segments which operate within many different snack food and beverage production industries which are encompassed by Soft Drink, Baked Goods and Other Grocery Wholesaling. FLNA (Frtio-Lay North America) and QFNA (Quaker Foods North America) operate within Snack Food Production which is the production of snack foods such as potato and corn chips, popcorn, pretzels, and other similar snacks excluding cereal and baked products. PepsiCo obtains 35.2% of the market 4. PepsiCo is the largest producer in this industry competing against ConAgra Foods (5.2% market share) and The Kellogg Company (3.0% market share). This industry had annual growth of 3.4% from 2008 through 2013 and is expected to decrease to 3.0% annual growth until Changes in consumer preferences to healthier alternatives will have a significant impact on this industry which can be seen in the decrease in annual growth. Companies will work on technologies and other ways to produce healthier snack foods. However, increasing disposable income will provide the industry with revenue opportunity. A major driver will be demand from grocery wholesalers and supermarkets. QFNA also falls under cereal production through the brands Life, Cap n Crunch, and Quaker Oatmeal, which acquire and use raw materials such as corn, sugar, flour and wheat, to produce ready-toeat and hot cereals. PepsiCo, which has 6.8% market share, competes in a highly competitive industry against The Kellogg Company (33.2% market share), General Mills (23.5%) and Post Holding Inc. (9.1%) 4. Annual growth has decreased significantly from 2009 through 2014 at a rate of -2.1%, however is expected to have annual growth of 0.9%. High amounts of capital and brand loyalty inhibit entry. PAB (PepsiCo Americas Beverage) segment produce beverages which fall under Soda, Syrup Flavoring or juice production. Syrup and Flavoring production is the manufacturing of drink concentrates and other products for beverage manufacturers of soda fountains and syrup flavoring, which PepsiCo has 23.6% market share, competing mainly against The Coca-Cola Company which has 50.2% market share, making competition medium 4. Changes in consumer preferences are playing a huge role in negative growth rates for the industry, as people stop consuming sodas because of the health effects. Being in a decline life cycle stage, growth from 2008 through 2013 was -6.0% and expected average annual growth from 2013 through 2018 is -0.4%, which could result in high revenue volatility. Industry revenue is expected to drop 0.8% in Soda production entails blending of artificially carbonated water with appropriate ingredients to produce soft drinks. Again, PepsiCo, which has 30.3% market share, competes in a highly competitive industry against main competitors The Coca-Cola Company (41.9% market share) and Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (14.8%). Shifts in consumer trends toward healthy alternatives will affect this industry. Annual growth from 2008 through 2013 was -1.3% and expected annual growth from 2013 through 2018 will be -1.0% as the life cycle for this industry is on a decline. Consolidations are an attempt to combat the effects of decreasing soda demand through production of drinks such as tea, coffee and water. Major customers are grocery stores and supermarkets (39.9% of revenue), gas stations and convenient stores (29.5%) and supercenters and warehouse clubs (19.2%). Juice Production is the manufacturing of beverages such as fruit juice, flavored water, ready-todrink tea and coffee, as well as other beverages. PepsiCo, which has 35.7% market share as the leader, 5 IBIS World

5 competes against The Coca-Cola Company (28.2% market share) and Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (8.3%). The shifts in consumer trends have caused consumers to move from industries such as soda production into industries such as Juice Production, providing this industry with opportunity. As this industry is in a growth life cycle, annual growth from 2008 through 2013 was 4.3% and expected annual growth from 2013 through 2018 increases to 6.8%. Because of this opportunity to capture revenues competition is high. Some key drivers will be demand from supermarkets and grocery stores and per capita disposable income. For all these sub-industries economies of scale play a large role in efficiency and ability to reduce unit costs, making firms more viable for competition and inhibiting ease of entry into these industries. All of these production industries are encompassed by Soft Drink, Baked Goods and other Grocery Wholesaling, which is the wholesaling of specialized products such as soft drinks and baked goods. 15.4% of industry revenue is obtained by 2 of the largest companies within the industry which gives this industry a low level of concentration enabling extremely competitive pricing lowering these companies margins 4. Competition level is very high; however the concentration level is low. Because this industry is in a declining life cycle, annual growth from 2008 through 2013 was -1.7% due partially to wholesale bypass. However, expected annual growth from 2013 through 2018 is expected to increase to 0.4% due to recovery from slow demand and wholesale bypass 4. This industry analysis thus far includes only the United States, which accounts for about half of PepsiCo s revenue. Europe s and Latin Americas food and beverage industry is experience the shift in consumer preferences to healthy alternatives as well. Key driver will be product innovation and disposable income. Competition remains high. Latin American companies struggled and large companies merged and acquired in order to strengthen market share a product scope. Growing economies and low rates of unemployment contribute to increases in soft drink consumption. Laws introduced, such as laws in Brazil protecting traditional food and inhibiting highly processed foods, will have an unfavorable effect on producers. Convenience and healthy products will be key drivers in Latin America. Asia s Food and Beverage industry is one of its largest markets and contributors to GDP. Food and Beverage companies performed well as Asian economies continued to strengthen and grow moderately; however, according to Mergent these economies are expected to contract somewhat as exports decrease, however, companies experienced moderate growth in quarters 1 and 2 of 2013, which could be the result of a growing middle class increasing consumer disposable income. This region will also be affected by health concerns shifting consumer trends. The future of this industry will be determined through commodity price pressures/ raw material price pressures, government policy, and consumer preferences. Major inputs for these industries such as corn have seen dramatic price reductions, corn being down 27% in October 2013 going into November, and coffee down 32% and wheat down 18%. 6 Fluctuating prices can be combated by futures contracts; however this is also a risk itself as prices may decline resulting in paying higher than what the market currently offers. Input price reductions have in turn caused manufactures to reduce their prices to consumers which are relevant to the high price competition within this sector. MarketScope projects pricing will be a much smaller driver in Overall the key driver will be shifts in consumer preferences toward health beneficial products. Major players will gear their product development and innovation to satisfy consumer preferences, which may result in increased expenses in things such as R&D. This has been successful for PepsiCo as 8% of 2014 total revenues during the first quarter were products introduced within the last 3 years. 7 Emerging markets such as China, which surpassed the US in

6 2011 as the world s largest retail grocery market, could drive growth. However, foreign currency fluctuations are another risk as increases in the dollar make it more expensive for foreign markets to purchase US products. MarketScope sees the strength of the US dollar against foreign currencies as unfavorable in regards to sales. As this industry constantly changes major companies dependent on this industry will carefully keep in mind all these determining factors.

7 Appendix: Inputs into valuation using multiples Stock Price Diluted Eps F 2015F Sales (millions) 39,474 43,251 43,232 57,838 66,504 65,492 66,415 69, , Diluted Shares Outstand ing ,614 1,597 1,575 1,560 1,488 1,434 Sales per Share P/E P/S * Analyst's own calculations. Source of basic data: company's 10-K; Yahoo! Finance

8 Other Sources 1. PepsiCo k 2. PepsiCo k IBIS World Mergent

SWOT Analysis is a strategic planning tool used to evaluate the:

Power of SWOT Introduction SWOT Analysis is a strategic planning tool used to evaluate the: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats History of SWOT Analysis early 1950s Developed at Stanford Funded