Delivering Business Results Today by Using Tomorrow s Field Optimisation Engine

Transcription

1 INSTR COVE Delivering Business Results Today by Using Tomorrow s Field Optimisation Engine S t G C C L u INSTR IMAG C G T o 4. T t Kai Eberspaecher / Antony Wauchope October

2 Good bye mega projects, welcome operations FROM TO Advisian / 2

3 Why are we presenting today? Addressing significant challenges for operators such as Reducing unit operating costs - NOW Reducing unit development cost IN FUTURE What How Why Production Cost Risk Asset Planning Tool Understanding of Asset Scenarios Optimised Business Decisions Advisian / 3

4 Operations Use Cases Advisian / 4

5 Risk Integration in Operational Planning Build in risk attributes relating to risk categories: such as People, Environment, Assets and Reputation Assess risk categories across each of the following areas: Development, Design, Operation, and Maintenance Advisian / 5

6 Cumulative Operational Risk Assessment Use GIS data to visualise risk profiles by layers: 1. Engineering Design Risk (well productivity/topography) 2. Location Risk (Visible to Public) 3. Change Environment (Cropping Land) 4. Access Risk (Landowner running cattle) 5. High Solids Area Advisian / 6

7 Cumulative Operational Risk Assessment Attach risk attributed on well by well basis assess risk profiles: 1. Engineering Design Risk (well productivity/topography) 2. Location Risk (Visible to Public) 3. Change Environment (Cropping Land) 4. Access Risk (Landowner running cattle) 5. High Solids Area Low Risk Areas High Risk Areas Advisian / 7

8 Maintenance Strategy: Contractor (outsource) or Staff (Multi- skilling) Identify distribution of items that require different maintenance requirements Align operations (and skill sets) to current and forecast maintenance areas, overlay whether skillsets provided by staff or contractors: Wells requiring Skill set A Wells requiring Skill set B Wells requiring Skill set C 100 Unique area requiring all 3 skill sets No Year Invest in training of Skill Set B here as it will be required more in future

9 Determine Optimal Contracting Strategy Contract for Well Maintenance Services Identify base load contracts, variable and premium contracts with risk sharing mechanisms Forecast dip in workovers due to Free Flowing wells Maintenance outside Base Fee are charged at premium to client (i.e. client carries risk) Link contract to expected workovers Variable Base Fee Payment changing every year Volume Discount T&Cs (shared risk) Base Fee Payment for maintenance activity Volume Discount T&Cs (contractor risk) 1 Trial Phase 2 Growth Phase 3 Decline Phase 9

10 Summary Granular risks, costs and other parameters associated with assets as a function of the business planning cycle better planning better contracting scope lower risks better decisions and ultimately lower operating costs How much? Assume 50 well interventions a month at a $100k average (flush bys and other interventions) 50 x 12 x 100 = $60 million per annum Let s assume that we can reduce this by 10% by making better decisions through better insights. That would $6 million per annum 10

11 Pilot and Technology Use Case Advisian / 11

12 Pilots and Technology What is the case for new technology? Lower cost, higher recovery, higher productivity, more production What is the business case for trialling a new technology? How much would you spend on it? Designing a pilot program (iterative or agile) Benefits case Proof of Concept User Acceptance Test Scale up Roll- out Keys to success Set parameters and success criteria Iterative / agile development Testing hypotheses 12

13 Linking Pilot Programs to Well Requirements Identify future risks associated with designs Limited low- flow technologies leading to abandonment and loss of EUR Build a business case quantifying how much this technology is worth What is Value of adding a Low Flow Technology to delay abandonments? Use existing low flow wells as pilots $$ Implement successful pilots across asset to exploit value Have ~8 years to trial develop and scale technology 13

14 Asset Planning Tool Overview Advisian / 14

15 How does it work? Inputs Analysis Outputs Decisions Technology inventory Lifecycle analysis Relative preferences Analysis based on client specific criteria ( Black Box ) Cost profiles Technology evolution Risk profile Interpret and study outcomes Take decisions to support business outcomes - confidently 15

16 Opportunity: Create optimal strategies in statistical play Aligned Stakeholder Assumptions Benchmark to Enable Improvement Identify Principle Focus Areas Build in Granularity for Insights Our focus Uncertainty Range High Value Low Value Projects Phase Operations Phase Text Advisian / 16

17 Thank you! DISCLAIMER This presentation has been prepared by a representative of Advisian. The presentation contains the professional and personal opinions of the presenter, which are given in good faith. As such, opinions presented herein may not always necessarily reflect the position of Advisian as a whole, its officers or executive. Any forward- looking statements included in this presentation will involve subjective judgment and analysis and are subject to uncertainties, risks and contingencies many of which are outside the control of, and may be unknown to, Advisian. Advisian and all associated entities and representatives make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information in this document and do not take responsibility for updating any information or correcting any error or omission that may become apparent after this document has been issued. To the extent permitted by law, Advisian and its officers, employees, related bodies and agents disclaim all liability direct, indirect or consequential (and whether or not arising out of the negligence, default or lack of care of Advisian and/or any of its agents) for any loss or damage suffered by a recipient or other persons arising out of, or in connection with, any use or reliance on this presentation or information. Advisian / 17