Lessons from Material Flow Analyses

Transcription

1 Center for Industrial Ecology Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies Lessons from Material Flow Analyses Thomas E. Graedel Yale University

2 How can the life cycles of materials be expressed?

3 The Substance Flow Analysis Diagram IMPORT/EXPORT PROCESS - ING FABRICA - TION USE WASTE DISCARD MGT. ORE ENVIRONMENT STAF Project Yale University 2004

4 losses The Generic Metal Cycle losses F R refined metal semis Mfg S matte Scrap metal in final goods U stock losses concentrate EOL Mi W P F&M WM U ore tailings I/E metal to other scrap markets Mi S R F Mfg U W EOL Mine & Mill Smelter Refinery Fabrication Manufacturing Use Waste Management & Recycling End-of-life flows

5 What information is needed?

6 The World s Annual Production of Tungsten 1.6 m

7 The World s Annual Production of Rhenium 1.2 m

8 Tungsten Uses, 2011

9 How are materials lost?

10 Sewers and Building Foundations: Examples of Abandoned Stock

11 Buried Infrastructure Cables: An Example of Comatose Stock Courtesy of Midwest Energy, Inc.,

12 Brake Linings: An Example of Dissipative Use Brake linings contain phenolic resin binder, clay and powder fillers, graphite lubricants, and metallic fibers (Ba, Ca, Ti, Cu, Mg, Cr, Sb, Zn, Zr ) Image courtesy of Sansin Brake Co., etrade.daegu.go.kr/.../brake_lining.html

13 Miscellaneous uses In-use dissipation Currently unrecyclable Potentially recyclable

14 Miscellaneous uses In-use dissipation Currently unrecyclable Potentially recyclable

15 Computers in the Closet: An Example of Hibernating Stock Courtesy of P.C. Surgeon, p-c-surgeon.com/ /computer-disposal.html

16 How is a material cycle quantified?

17 Data Required for a MFA Rates of production over time Process loss fractions End of life recycling rates For country or region cycles: Import/export rates (both as pure metal and as metal in products)

18 Conservation of Mass F2 F1 Process F F3 F4 F1 + F2 = F3 + F4 + F

19 The USA nickel cycle in R 136 F Mfg S 0 Scrap U Stock Min m 0 Ni 2005 (Gg/a) USA Yale University 2010 W Mi S R F Mfg U W Mine & Mill Smelter Refinery Fabrication Manufacturing Use Waste Management & Recycling

20 The nickel cycle for the USA, 2005 R F Ma S Sc 2 U Mi W all values Ni Gg/a

21 How do cycles demonstrate differences and changes in material use?

22 The stainless steel cycle in Mfg Mfg HR, CR 3624 Stock Scrap U 957 Stock HR, CR Scrap U 1532 Stock R& 1018 P WM JP 2000 (Gg/a) P CN&HK 2000 (Gg/a) R& WM Japan China Reck et al. 2010, Environ. Sci. & Technol.

23 Life cycle diagrams illustrate the rapid growth of stainless steel use in China Mfg HR, CR Mfg 191 Scrap U 1532 STOCK HR, CR P Mfg Scrap CN 2005 (Gg/a) 5372 R& WM U Stock HR, CR P Scrap CN 2010 (Gg/a) 247 WM &Rec U stock P R& WM CN&HK 2000 (Gg/a) 2000 Unit: Gg/a stainless steel Reck et al. 2015, in preparation

24 By 2010, almost a third of the world s stainless steel was used in China China 32% China 24% China 10% Other Countries Other Countries 2010 Other Countries

25 How can material cycles provide policy guidance?

26 A policy question: What happens if China reaches a per-capita iron stock saturation at the level of the U.S.? Assumptions: Per-capita in-use stocks continue to grow with current speed Same standard of living (services from stocks) No major technology changes Yale CIE M. Hu et al., Resources, Conservation, and Recycling, 54, , 2010

27 Scenario of China Stock Saturation Iron demand (entering use) Iron end of life (exiting use) [Tg/a] [Tg/a] Total Total Mach. & Appl. Transportation Construction Others Mach. & Appl. Transportation Construction Others Decrease in demand coincides with increase in scrap generation Yale CIE

28 BOF and EAF steel making Basic Oxygen Furnace Electric Arc Furnace max % scrap Up to 100% scrap Yale CIE Source: US Steel Source: Oregon Steel Surplus

29 Implications of technology choice EAF share -> 0.2 [Tg/a] Net-Import Scrap [Tg/a] Iron Ore Consumption EAF share -> 0.5 [Tg/a] Net-Import Scrap [Tg/a] Iron Ore Consumption Daniel B. Müller

30 Conclusions from China Steel Scenarios 1. China will reach the U.S. per capita stock saturation level around After that, a decrease in steel demand will coincide with an increase in old scrap. 2. With its current share of EAF steel making, China will not have the capacity to use its own old scrap. 3. However, an increase in the EAF share in the next 5-10 years would require a significant increase in scrap imports Yale CIE

31 Progress and Challenges

32 S. Pauliuk et al., Environmental Science & Technology, 46, , 2012

33 Metals with no published global cycle

34 losses losses F R refined metal semis Mfg S matte Scrap metal in final goods U stock losses concentrate EOL Mi W P F&M U ore tailings metal to other scrap markets WM I/E