Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in Thailand. By Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand

Transcription

1 Current and Future Trends of Steel Consumption in Thailand By Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand 1 October 2014

2 2 Content Macro economics situation Steel industry in 2013 and 2014 outlook

3 3 Content Macro economics situation Steel industry in 2013 and 2014 outlook

4 Thai Economy in 2013 & Q1&Q2/2014 Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) 4

5 Private consumption expenditure expanded slightly after 3 consecutive quarters of contraction, while Consumer Confidence Index began to improve. 5

6 Private investment declined due to the contraction in machinery and equipment and construction investment. 6

7 Industrial sector continued to contract for five consecutive quarters, though showing a slight improvement compared with the previous quarter following the increases in export industries. 7

8 8 Content Macro economics situation Steel industry in 2013 and 2014 outlook

9 Crude Steel Production of Aug 2014 is 134.9M tons; 3.1%increasing from Aug , , ,695 World crude steel production Aug 2014: Million tonnes 141, ,184 (3.1%) 136, , , , , , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 EU: -0.1% Asia: 4.1% CIS: -5.7% Oceania: -13.1% N.America: 3.1% Middle East: 2.0% S.America: -1.3% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 9 Source: World Steel Association

10 China s Crude Steel Production of Aug 2014 is 68.9M tons; 4%increasing from Aug 2013 Major countries crude steel production ( 000 Tonnes) China South Korea India 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 68,727 62,076 China Crude Steel Production 70,250 68,835 70,432 69,294 68,324 68,910 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 6,040 5,291 South Korea crude steel production 6,127 6,098 6,164 6,048 5,897 5,285 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 6,954 6,280 India Crude Steel Production 7,250 7,015 7,080 6,960 7,027 6,732 45,000 40,000 35,000 4,000 3,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 30,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Turkey U.S. RUSSIA 3,500 Turkey crude steel production 9,000 America Crude steel production 7,000 Russia crude steel production 3,000 2,500 2,829 2,666 2,845 2,620 3,016 3,124 2,823 2,902 8,000 7,000 7,329 6,691 7,405 7,027 7,465 7,228 7,609 7,682 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,909 5,339 6,028 5,800 6,053 5,888 6,203 6,169 6,000 5,000 2,000 5,000 4,500 1,500 4,000 4,000 3,500 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 10 Source: World Steel Association

11 Flat Product s Price of August 2014 is decline while the Sla 26 Mar Apr 12 7 May May Jun 12 9 Jul Jul Aug Sep 12 1 Oct Oct Nov 12 3 Dec Dec Jan 13 4 Feb Feb Mar 13 8 Apr Apr May Jun 13 1 Jul Jul Aug 13 2 Sep Sep Oct 13 4 Nov Nov Dec 13 6 Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May 14 2 Jun Jun Jul 14 4 Aug Aug 14 Price increase Flat Product Prices (USD/Tonne) Scrap Slab HRC CRC Prem Low Vol HCC - FOB $/t Source: SBB and ISIT analysis

12 26 Mar Apr 12 7 May May Jun 12 9 Jul Jul Aug Sep 12 1 Oct Oct Nov 12 3 Dec Dec Jan 13 4 Feb Feb Mar 13 8 Apr Apr May Jun 13 1 Jul Jul Aug 13 2 Sep Sep Oct 13 4 Nov Nov Dec 13 6 Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May 14 2 Jun Jun Jul 14 4 Aug Aug 14 Flat Product s Price of August 2014 is decline from the previous months Long Product Prices (USD/Tonne) Rebar Billet Scrap Merchant Bar Wire R od Source: SBB and ISIT analysis

13 In 2013, Thailand apparent steel use was 17.7 million tons, increased by 4.6% from 2012 Thailand apparent steel use ( 000 Tonnes) 20,000 18,000 16,914 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 12,661 13,876 12,154 12,718 13,528 10,644 13,871 14,411 17,676 17,698 CAGR 13/12 4.6% 6,000 4,000 2, f Production Import Export Apparent steel use -2.5% 8.5% -0.3% Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand 13

14 Thailand steel demand in 2013, the demand rising is beneficial to import, not for local production Total ('000 tonne) %Change '13/'12 Production 6,845 7, % Import 12,249 11, % Export 1,396 1, % Apparent Consumption 17,698 16, % Long ('000 tonne) %Change '13/'12 Production 3,959 4, % Import 2,930 2, % Export % Apparent Consumption 5,928 5, % Flat ('000 tonne) %Change '13/'12 Production 2,886 2, % Import 9,318 8, % Export % Apparent Consumption 11,770 11, % Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand 14

15 Construction industry remained the highest steel consumer 50.9% in Construction is major steel consu Ratio Long product : Flat product = 32 : 68 Demand breakdown 10.8% 4.3% - Construction 50.9% - Automotive 22.4% - Machinery & Industrial 11.7% - Appliance 10.8% - Packaging 4.3% 11.7% 22.4% 50.9% Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand 15

16 In 2013, Thailand demand of steel per capita was 274 kilograms. Thailand demand per capita (Kg) 1,000 17, ,914 16, ,764 15,838 14,430 14, ,443 14,647 14, ,676 18,140(E) 18,117 17, ,758 9,700 9, E Demand per capita (Kg) ASU (1,000 tonnes) Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand 16

17 Thailand steel industry structure Ironmaking Steelmaking Finishing & Coating Forming End Users Long Product 1 Mill TATA (Mini-Blast Furnace) Scrap recycle 16 Mills TATA G Steel GJS SYS TRIUMP Etc. Hot-Rolling ~ 50 Mills TATA Sahaviriya Tycoon Etc. Production: 3.7 m T Import: 1.7 m T Export: 0.8 m T Demand: 4.7 m T Cold-Drawing ~ 100 Mills 1,000 Mills Machining Bending Cutting Welding Forging Heat Treatment Construction 50% Automobiles and parts 23% Production:4.2 m T Import:3.7 m T Export:0.2 mt Demand:7.7 m T Import Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Brazil Export Vietnam, Philippines, India, Taiwan Flat Products Hot-Rolling Cold-Rolling Coating 5 Mills G Steel GJ Steel Sahaviriya LPN Production: 3.9 m T Import: 3 m T Export :0.3m T Demand : 4.2 m T Import Japan, S. Korea, Australia, China Export Vietnam, Malaysia, Laos 3 Mills SUS TCRSS Bluescope 1 Mill (stainless) POSCO-Thainox Production: 1.7 m T Import:0.7 m T Export: 0.1 m T Demand: 1.6 m T Import Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, China Export China, India, Italy, Indonesia ~ 15 Mills Bluescope Thai Tin Plate Production: 0.8 m T Import: 2.2 m T Export: 0.1m T Demand: 2.9 m T Import Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, China Export Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Hong Kong Etc. Machinery and Industrial Products 12% Electrical Appliances Packaging 11% 4% Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand

18 Thailand steel industry currently under-utilized assets Thailand capacity and capacity utilization Capacity Output %CU Billet 5,508 2, % Bar 5000 (Est.) 2, % HR section 2,142 WR 1, % Seamless pipe 200 n.a n.a HRC 7,000 2, % HRP 1, % CRC (Carbon & STS) 2,800 1, % HDG % Mini mills Rolling mills TP&TF % Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand 18

19 New investment in Thailand Production Start in 2013 investment news 2014 Dongbu Thai Steel -Pre-coated Metal Sheet -Capacity (TPY.) 80,000 Nippon Steel & Sumikin Galvanizing (Thailand) -Galvanized/Galvannealed Steel -Capacity (TPY.) 360,000 JFE Steel Galvanizing (Thailand) -Galvanized Steel sheet -Capacity (TPY.) 400,000 PCM Processsing (Thailand) (New Continuous Color Coating Line) -Pre-painted steel sheet -Capacity (TPY.) 72,000 onssmc & BlueScope Steel planed to produce a signature coated sheet product call Super Dyma with Capacity 200,000 TPY. oposco will start building a new continuous galvanizing line in Thailand to produce exclusively autosheet with Capacity 400,000 TPY. Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand 19

20 H In the first half of 2014, Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption was 8.3 Mt, down by 14.6% y-o-y. Long Product Finished Steel Consumption down by 9.6% y-o-y. Long Steel consumption comparison for Jan-Jun 2014 Jan-Jun 2014 Production %y-o-y change Import %y-o-y change Export %y-o-y change Consumption %y-o-y change Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption 3,347, % 5,677, % 716, % 8,308, % Long Product Finished Steel Consumption 1,929, % 1,475, % 505, % 2,898, % Long Product Bar Carbon steel 1,697, , % 111, % Stainless steel 5, % 5, % Alloy steel -10.3% 192, % 32, % 1,752, % HR section Carbon steel 90, % 215, % Stainless steel 1, % 1, % Alloy steel 12, % 1, % Wire rod Carbon steel 231, , % 7, % Stainless steel -26.4% 30, % % 976, % Alloy steel 602, % 343 1,459.1% Cold-drawn bar 28, % 12, % Steel wire 91, % 79, % Seamless pipe 179, % 37, % Source: Customs Department and ISIT analysis

21 H Flat Product Finished Steel Consumption was 5.4 Mt, down by 17.1% y-o-y. While consumption of semi-finished steel down by 11.5% y-o-y. Flat Steel consumption comparison for Jan-Jun2014 Jan-Jun 2014 Production %y-o-y change Import %y-o-y change Export %y-o-y change Consumption %y-o-y change Total Apparent Finished Steel Consumption 3,347, % 5,677, % 716, % 8,308, % Flat Product Finished Steel Consumption 1,418, % 4,201, % 210, % 5,409, % Flat Product HR plate Carbon steel 135,330 94, % 3, % Stainless steel -0.8% 8, % % 266, % Alloy steel 32, % % HR sheet Carbon steel 1,283, , % 12, % Carbon steel P&O -6.8% 499, % % 3,295, % Stainless steel 151, % 18,000 33,233.3% Alloy steel 710, % % CR sheet Carbon steel 392, % 14, % Stainless steel 890, % 67, % 31, % 1,399, % Alloy steel 96, % % Coated Galv.sheet (HDG) 147, % 753, % 21, % 938, % Galv.sheet (EG) 73, % 13, % Tin plate 117, % 65, % 1, % 181, % Tin free 94, % 9, % % 104, % Other coated steel 157, % 376, % 20, % 513, % Cold-formed section % 2, % Welded pipe 187, % 68, % Finished Steel Product Q1/2014 Q2/2014 % q-o-q %y-o-y Production 1,657,322 1,690, % 0.2% Import 2,666,662 3,036, % -11.0% Export 224, , % -3.4% Consumption 4,099,977 4,359, % -7.6% Source: Customs Department and ISIT analysis

22 Thailand steel demand is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2014 Thailand apparent steel use ( 000 Tonnes) , F Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand Construction sector expand by 4% to 6% Automotive sector contract by -4% to -2% Machinery & Industrial sector expand by 0% to 5% Appliance sector expand by 1% to 3% Packaging sector expand by 0% to 1% 22

23 Thailand Steel Demand is expected to reach 25M tons in ,000,000 25,000,000 24,998,627 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 14,538,239 9,793,655 16,133,592 8,865,035 5,000,000 4,744,584 0 Long product Flat product Total steel demand

24 ASEAN Steel Consumption in Y2014 is expected to expand ~ 4 5% Source: SEAISI

25 20 Major Steel Companies (6/10 and 9/20 = China) Source: World Steel Association

26 China is the largest Steel Producer The Production is more than 750 tons; 7 times of Japan The Major Steel Producers Year 2013 (Million tons) Source: World Steel Association

27 China Excess Capacity is increasing dramatically; from 38M tons in 2003 to 185M tons in 2013 Trend of China s Capacity, Production and Demand (Million tons) The Excess Capacity increase 387% within 10 Years Source: World Steel Association

28 China Excess Capacity is larger than Steel Demand China s Export growth continuously Trend of China s Steel Export Y (Million tons) Source: World Steel Association

29 The Contrast between the increasing Apparent Steel Use and the decreasing Domestic Production Thailand s Steel Production, Import and Steel Consumption Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand

30 The Apparent Steel Use increase from 10.1M tons in 2009 to 17.7M tons in 2013 while the Import is also increase from 1M tons to 3M tons Thailand s Long Product Production, Import and Steel Use Source: Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand

31 Disclaimer The information in the above report, publication and website has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information. Any opinions or forecasts regarding future events may differ from actual events or results. In addition, Iron & Steel Institute คำจำก ดควำมร บผ ด อม ลในรำยงำน ส งพ มพ และเวปไซด ท ไ ด จ ดท ำข นมำจำก แหล งข อม ลท เช อถ อได อย ำงไรก ตำม สถำบ นเหล กและเหล กกล ำ แห งประเทศไทยไม ร บประก นควำมถ กต อง ครบถ วนและพอเพ ยงของ ข อม ลเหล ำน ควำมเห นหร อกำรคำดกำรณ ใดๆ ต อเหต กำรณ ใน อนำคตอำจแตกต ำงจำกเหต กำรณ ท จะเก ดข นจร ง นอกจำกน สถำบ น เหล กและเหล กกล ำแห งประเทศไทยขอสงวนส ทธ ในกำรเปล ยนแปลง และแก ไขข อม ล รวมถ งควำมเห นและกำรประมำณกำรณ ใดๆ โดยไม ต องแจ งล วงหน ำ

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