Analysis of Chinese copper Statistics and Overview of the China's Copper Market

Transcription

1 Analysis of Chinese copper Statistics and Overview of the China's Copper Market Li Yusheng China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Lisbon, Portugal 27th April, 2017

2 CONTENTS 1 China s copper Statistics and copper supply/demand in Copper production and import/export review in Jan-Mar China s copper supply/demand forecast in

3 China s copper Statistics and copper supply/demand in

4 Copper statistics collected and treated in China How to collect copper statistics data Cu enterprise => NBS county and district level offices => NBS city level offices => NBS provincial offices=>nbs Headquarter 4

5 Copper statistics collected and treated in China Products Statistics Copper-in- Concentrate Unit: kt Preliminary Final Refined Copper Copper Semis Preliminary Final Preliminary Final Data source: NBS CNIA Note: The priliminary data release in late next January, and the final data usually release in next September 5

6 Copper statistics collected and treated in China What are the changes in China's Copper Statistics? The official data only released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Double counting was reduced significantly The revision of Statistical data is finally carried out by NBS Output, kt Jan-Apr 2016 May 2016 Jan-May 2016 Jan-May 2016* Difference Refined copper = Output, kt Jan-Aug, 2016 Sept, 2016 Jan-Sept, 2016 Jan-Sept, 2016* Difference Copper-in-concentrate = Data source: NBS * The sum of the second and third columns 6

7 China s copper supply/demand in 2016 Product Output Year on Year Copper concentrate output % Copper blister output % Refined copper output % Copper concentrate import % Copper scrap import % Copper blister/anode import % Refined copper import % Refined copper export % Refined copper net import % Refined copper consumption % Data source: CNIA, China Customs Note: The quantity of copper concentrete and copper import scrap is gross weight The production in 2016 is preliminary data 7

8 China s copper supply/demand in 2016 In 2016, copper concentrate production mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Yunnan, Anhui and Gansu province, and refined copper mainly in Shandong, Jiangxi, Anhui, Gansu, Yunnan and Hubei province. The top 5 companies for refined copper output in China were Tongling Nonferrous, Jiangxi Copper, Jinchuan Group, Dongying Fangyuan and Yunnan Copper, the refined output was mlt, accounted for 56.0% of the China's Total refined copper production. In 2016, the import of copper concentrate, copper blister/anode saw a rapid growth, while the refined copper export reached kt, with a 101.2% year-on-year increase. 8

9 China s copper supply/demand in 2016 Copper concentrate import by country Refined Copper import by country Data source: China Customs 9

10 China s copper supply/demand in 2016 Copper scrap import by country/region Copper bliter/anode import by country Data source: China Customs 10

11 China s copper supply/demand in 2016 Refined copper export by country/region Refined copper export by trade mode Data source: China Customs 11

12 China s copper supply/demand in 2016 Copper consumption by sector Note Consumer goods: refrigerator,air-conditioner, freezer, door-lock, small household applicance, kitchen utensil, etc. Machinery: locomotive, construction machinery,instruments, heavy mining machinery, machinery tool manufactruing, etc. Data source: CNIA 12

13 China s copper supply/demand in 2016 Summary: In 2016,the net increase quantity of copper production was still considerable although the growth rate maintain moderate pace. Stimulated by smelting capacity expansion and relatively higher TC/RC, and abundant copper concentrate supply in the world, the import of copper concentrate saw a high growth rate. The increase of copper smelting/refining capacity will bot back to the previous boom years. Refined copper consumption was better than expected, and power industry was the main driver for Chinese copper demand. 13

14 China s copper supply in January-February

15 China s copper production in Jan.-Mar kt Jan.-Feb. Y-O-Y March Jan-Mar Y-O-Y Copper in concentrate % % Refined copper % % of which, primary % % of which, secondary % % Copper semis % % Data source: CNIA 15

16 China s copper import/export in Jan.-Feb kt January February Jan.-Feb. Y-O-Y Copper concentrate % Copper scrap % Copper blister/anode % Refined copper import % Refined copper export % Refined Cu net import % Data source: China Customs 16

17 Summary: In Q1 2017,domestic copper production saw a steady growth; The copper concentrate and copper scrap import increased year-on-year, while the import of copper blister/anode and refined copper saw a decrease in the first two months; The export of refined copper increased significantly; Refined copper consumption maintained moderate growth, and the recovery rate for copper consumption was lower than expected after the Spring Festival. 17

18 China s copper supply/demand forecast in

19 China s copper supply/demand forecast in Y-O-Y 2017 Y-O-Y Copper concentrate output % % Refined copper output % % of which, Primary % % Secondary % % Refined copper net import % 2960* -7.6% Refined copper demand % % Unit: kt Data source: CNIA China Customs Antaike* 19

20 China s copper supply/demand forecast in 2017 China s copper production and consumption will be in a medium level growth rate The smelting/refining capacity expansion will be about 300 kt respectively. Copper concentrate import with higher growth due to smelting expansion in recent years. Copper demand in power industry and transportation sector expected better, and real estate market is difficult to pick up. 20

21 Disclaimer This document has been prepared with care. However, China Nonferrous Metals Industry association. (CNIA) makes no warranty of any kind in regard to the contents and shall not be liable for incidental or consequential damages, financial or otherwise, arising out of the use of this document. Contact: Li Yusheng China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) 12B Fuxing Road Haidian District Beijing China 21

22 Thank you for your attention! 22