REAL-TIME PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND CORROSION MONITORING WITH PREDICT -RT

Transcription

1 Honeywell Technology Summit Kuwait Dr. Slawomir Kus; Ahmed Lofty 4 October 2017 REAL-TIME PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND CORROSION MONITORING WITH PREDICT -RT

2 Outlines 1. Corrosion in Refining Industry costs, methodologies and mismanagement 2. Predict RT (Real Time) Makes a Difference 1. From static to live corrosion assessment using state-of-art corrosion knowledge 3. Real Time Prediction Features 1. RT Corrosion KPI management 2. High level predictive analytics 4. Real Time Corrosion Prediction Benefits 5. Summary 6. Q&A

3 Corrosion in Refineries quick recap Key Facts*: - ( ) Corrosion assessed as a major contributing factor in about 20% of incidents recorded in EU refineries since Out of all corrosion-related incidents nearly 50% resulted with high or very high consequences - 55% of the accidents were projected to have a very high economic impact - In 53 cases process conditions were identified as contributing to the corrosive conditions preceding the accident. ( ) - Example: Cost of Chevron Richmond Refinery accident due to sulfidation in crude unit estimated at US $600M * M.H. Wood, A.L. Vetere Arellano, L. Van Wijk; Corrosion Related Accidents in Petroleum Refineries European Commission 2013, EUR EN

4 Industry Guidelines for Corrosion Management 3 API 580/581 Risk Based Inspection API 584 Integrity Operating Windows Risk Analysis that considers multiple damage mechanisms Monitor Variables that impact Asset Integrity Alert on Deviations Various Corrosion Management Concepts Integrity Review Effectiveness assessment Performance Monitoring Why do we still continue to have corrosion-driven failures / incidents??

5 Flash Drum Atmospheric Column Stripper Stripper Corrosion is Complex and Invisible SG Compressor Stabilizer Drum Accumulator Sour Gas 2 OH Separator Cold Reflux LPG Sour Water Caustic Naphtha Kerosene 9 Crude Oil From Storage Desalter Desalter Water Brine 1 1 Fired Heater Steam 1 6 Diesel To VDU 1 Sulfidation; 2 Wet H2S Damage (Blistering/HIC/SOHIC/SSC; 3 Creep / Stress Rupture; 5 Polythionic Acid Corrosion; 6 Naphthenic Acid Corrosion; 8 Ammonium Chloride Corrosion; 9 HCl Corrosion; 11 Oxidation; 18 Caustic Cracking; 20 Erosion/Erosion Corrosion; 23 Cl SCC; 30 Short term Overheating / Stress Rupture; F Embrittlement; Dissimilar Metal Weld Cracking; 42 CO2 Corrosion; 44 Fuel Ash Corrosion; 48 Ammonia Stress Corrosion Cracking; 52 Liquid Metal Embrittlement; 66 Organic Acid Corrosion

6 Misuse and Misunderstanding.. 5 API 581 PART 2 ANNEX 2.B is NOT sufficient to understand how to prevent excessive damage API 581 PART 2 ANNEX 2.B is NOT adequate to set limits Some of the guidelines have proven to be incorrect. They are only guidelines to help with a Risk Analysis if you don t have any other data RBI prioritize the inspections to better assign your limited resources and focus on high risk areas API 584 formalized the process of setting up and managing IOWs but does not provide recommendation on how to set the limits Implementing API 580/581/584 does not prevent future corrosion damage Don t use these guidelines for prediction of corrosion rates. Inspections: Does not prevent the damage. It only picks it up before its too late

7 Corrosion Assessment via REACTIVE approach 6 Inspection Process corrosion quantification is a complex task Direct Assessment Cost intensive and loss of production Fix it when it breaks Impact of doing nothing Loss of production and fatalities when they can be avoided Chemical Injection Inhibitor vendors driving the process fox guarding the hen house situation Corrosion Coupons 90% of corrosion damage caused during 10% of operational time! Corrosion is found after it happens Like Driving with only a Rearview Mirror

8 7 Prediction in Real Time Makes a Difference PREDICT RT

9 Industry Leading Approach to Corrosion Management 8 Understand Monitor Prioritize Use prediction models/whatif analysis to identify critical corrosion locations Establish Integrity Operating Windows with respect to corrosion Plan and design to avoid corrosion failures Optimize feedstock selection with visibility into corrosion impact Correlate process changes to corrosion rates Know and correctly quantify current health of assets Push operations to corrosion limits with visibility and assurance Regard corrosion as a process variable Deploy resources in support Asset Integrity and Reliability programs Provide visibility for operations/management responsive actions Ensure economic agility for feedstock and corrosion optimization Ability to See Ahead Facilitates Optimized and Safe Operations

10 Corrosion analytics from static into live Critical Parameters Temperature Flow rate Pipe ID Pipe configuration Material of construction Active sulfur (as H 2 S) TAN/NAT... Automated Prediction Engine PREDICT RT Results Corrosion rate Damage mechanism Flow regime WSS/Velocity Service life Honeywell Confidential by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved. In real process there is NO time for static calculations

11 Real Time Prediction Engine - NOT GUESSING, IT IS SCIENCE! Predict-RT is NOT based on theoretical speculations Predict-RT Database comprises REAL corrosion data Prediction algorithms are based on +15 years research data developed during Honeywell Joint Industry Programs Predict-RT represents the most recent knowledge about corrosion processes Unique Predict IP worth +30$M is available for our customers with support from Honeywell Corrosion Center of Excellence (CoE) 20+ major World-Refining companies are using various Predict Models (off-line/on-line) Corrosion Rate (MPY) 140 T = 600F C Carbon Steel 120 WSS = 15 Pa TAN = 5.5 TAN = 1 TAN = 0 low sulfur region medium high very high Experimental data: H 2 S Partial Pressuer - P H2S (psia) H 2 S Partial Pressure, Psia -No additive -Mercaptan -Thiophene -Disulfide -predictions

12 Corrosion prediction dynamic and integrated mode Inspection / RBI server Lab server Integrity server Results Level 4 Network KPI Dashboard Level 3 Network Prediction Engine Level 3.5 Temperature Flow rate Pipe ID Pipe configuration MOC TAN/NAT... Operator Console Set of Parameters DCS Level 2 Network 4-20mA / HART / Modbus Super LPR High Res ER High Res UT

13 Simple, Visible, Connected PREDICT-RT IS THE INDUSTRY S FIRST EVER SOFTWARE SENSOR FOR CORROSION* 12 *PREDICT-RT IS PATENT PENDING REAL TIME DATA MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY

14 Real Time Analytics Monitor Rates at Multiple Locations 13 Predict-RT provides a real time quantified picture of unit and piping integrity; transforming your data into knowledge.

15 Correlate Rates with Operating Conditions 14 Predict-RT provides the ability to safely run the process, better manage your corrosion costs and improve operating margins.

16 Evaluate Multiple Materials for Better Asset Life Assessment 15 Predict-RT translates to extended asset life and better manage your asset integrity and corrosion costs.

17 High Level Corrosion Prediction and Analytics 16 Continuous view of Corrosion KPIs Alerts and alarms delivered on time Real time information on Service life Remaining corrosion allowance Best-fit materials of construction Inspection intervals Combining hardware monitoring under single corrosion-integrity framework

18 Real-Time Corrosion Prediction, Monitoring & Management - Benefits 17 A real time software sensor Track damage and enforce appropriate limits Identify critical areas as operating conditions change Build a complete corrosion picture in combination with hardware Adjust your inspection schedule to address critical areas Mitigate before it can break Predict when wall thicknesses will reach critical levels Plan your maintenance before it becomes an emergency Minimize Chemical Costs Visibility means you can use chemicals effectively Optimal use translates into lower costs Optimize process management with real time analytics Link corrosion and damage to relevant process parameters Know how you can optimize your process Honeywell Confidential by Honeywell International Inc. All rights reserved. Knowing where you are headed predictive and proactive

19 Real Time Prediction Summary Real time assessment of corrosion situation Provide quantified feedback for corrosion risk analysis and identification of corrosion hot spots Unlimited number of predicted streams Provide basis for efficient resource utilization and cost reductions in terms of inspection/maintenance, chemical treatment and unit metallurgy Provide optimization of inspection needs and frequencies Shift corrosion management from static into proactive mode Eliminate corrosion related failures and unplanned shutdowns Ensure critical units run from turnaround to turnaround without major corrosion related failure Allow to deploy a long term sustenance strategy for asset and integrity management

20 19 Thank You Q&A