Master Thesis. Wind Farm Design and a Comparative Assessment of Selected Regions in Jordan. Ahmad Al Tawafsheh

Master Thesis Wind Farm Design and a Comparative Assessment of Selected Regions in Jordan By: Ahmad Al Tawafsheh Submitted to Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of Kassel and Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for M.Sc. degree in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for the MENA Region February, 2012 [Reviewers] [Supervisors] Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Peter Zacharias Member Department of Electric Power Supply Systems, Faculty of Electrical Engineering/Computer Science, Kassel University Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil Hassan Khalil Member Mechanical Power Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University Mr. Stefan Chun General Manager CUBE Engineering GmbH Kassel / Germany Mrs. Martina Dabo Head of Wind Assessment CUBE Engineering GmbH Kassel / Germany II

Table of Contents List of Tables:... VII List of Figures:... IX List of Nomenclature and Abbreviations:... XII Acknowledgment... XIII Abstract... XIV Chapter 1: Introduction... 1 1. Introduction... 2 Chapter 2: Overview for Energy Situation and Wind Energy in Jordan... 3 2. Overview for Energy Situation and Wind Energy in Jordan... 4 2.1 Energy Sector in Jordan... 4 2.1.1 Status of Energy Sector... 4 2.1.2 Consumption and Future Demands... 5 2.1.3 Energy Resources... 8 2.2Wind Energy Projects... 10 2.2.1 Wind Farms... 10 2.2.2 Hybrid Systems... 10 2.2.3 Mechanical Wind Pumping... 11 2.2.4 New Wind Projects... 13 2.3 Electricity Sector in Jordan... 14 2.4 Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Law... 16 Chapter 3: Technical Assessment of Wind Regimes in Different Regions in Jordan... 17 3. Technical Assessment of Wind Regimes in Different Regions in Jordan... 18 3.1 Wind Atlas for Jordan... 18 3.2 Jordanian National Grid... 19 3.3 Sites Selection... 20 3.4 Wind Turbine Selection... 21 3.5 The North of Jordan (Hofa and Ibrahimya)... 23 3.5.1 Real Measurement Masts Data for North of Jordan... 24 3.5.1.1 Hofa... 24 3.5.1.2 Ibrahimya... 27 III

3.5.2 Simulation by Using Wind PRO... 31 3.5.3 The Optimal Wind Farms Layouts... 34 3.6 The Middle of Jordan (Tafila and Fujaij)... 39 3.6.1 Real Measurement Masts Data for The Middle of Jordan... 41 3.6.1.1 Tafila... 41 3.6.1.2 Fujaij... 45 3.6.2 Simulation by Using Wind PRO... 48 3.6.3 The Optimal Wind Farms Layouts... 51 3.7 The South of Jordan ( Aqaba )... 53 3.7.1 Real Measurement Masts Data for South of Jordan... 55 3.7.1.1 Aqaba... 55 3.7.2 Simulation by Using Wind PRO... 59 3.7.3 The Optimal Wind Farm Layout... 61 Chapter 4: Economical and Financial Assessment of Potential Wind Energy Projects.. 63 4. Economical and Financial Assessments of Potential Wind Energy Projects... 64 4.1 Economical and Financial Assessments of Potential Wind Energy in the North of Jordan... 67 4.1.1 The Hofa Wind Farm... 67 4.1.1.1 Payback Period... 73 4.1.1.2 Net Present Value... 74 4.1.1.3 Internal Rate of Return... 74 4.1.1.4 Return on Investment... 75 4.1.1.5 Sensitivity Analysis for the Levelized Cost of Energy... 76 4.1.2 The Ibrahimya Wind Farm... 78 4.1.2.1 Payback Period... 84 4.1.2.2 Net Present Value... 84 4.1.2.3 Internal Rate of Return... 85 4.1.2.4 Return on Investment... 85 4.1.2.5 Sensitivity Analysis for the Levelized Cost of Energy... 86 4.2 Economical and Financial Assessments of Potential Wind Energy in the Middle of Jordan... 87 IV

4.2.1 The Tafila Wind Farm... 87 4.2.1.1 Payback Period... 94 4.2.1.2 Net Present Value... 94 4.2.1.3 Internal Rate of Return... 95 4.2.1.4 Return on Investment... 95 4.2.1.5 Sensitivity Analysis for the Levelized Cost of Energy... 96 4.2.2 Fujaij Wind Farm... 97 4.2.2.1 Payback Period... 103 4.2.2.2 Net Present Value... 104 4.2.2.3 Internal Rate of Return... 104 4.2.2.4 Return on Investment... 105 4.2.2.5 Sensitivity Analysis for the Levelized Cost of Energy... 105 4.3 Economical and Financial Assessments of Potential Wind Energy in the South of Jordan... 107 4.3.1 Aqaba Wind Farm... 107 4.3.1.1 Payback Period... 113 4.3.2.2 Net Present Value... 113 4.3.2.3 Internal Rate of Return... 114 4.3.1.4 Return on Investment... 114 4.3.1.5 Sensitivity Analysis for the Levelized Cost of Energy... 115 Chapter 5: Comparisons between the North, the Middle and the South of Jordan... 117 5. Comparisons between the North, the Middle and the South of Jordan... 118 5.1 Technical Comparison between Different Regions in Jordan... 118 5.2 Economic and Financial Comparisons between Different Regions in Jordan... 120 5.3 Wind Speed Measurements and Monthly Energy Yield Compensation of Wind Farms... 123 Chapter 6: Recommendation and Scenarios to Achieve the Jordanian Target of Wind Energy... 131 6. Recommendation and Scenarios to Achieve the Jordanian Target of Wind Energy.. 132 6.1 Introduction... 132 6.2 Scenario1... 132 6.3 Scenario 2... 134 V

Chapter 7: Conclusion... 137 7. Conclusion... 138 References:... 140 Appendix A: Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Law... 141 Appendix B: Wind PRO Software... 151 Appendix C: Wind Turbines Specifications... 156 VI

List of Tables: Table (2.1): Energy consumption relation with population and economy in Jordan (2005-2009) [1]... 5 Table (2.2): Wind driven pumping systems in Jordan [6]... 12 Table (2.3): The electricity tariff in Jordan [9]... 15 Table (3.1): The selected wind turbines... 21 Table (3.2): The wind turbine selection... 22 Table (3.3): The Hofa measurement mast [6]... 26 Table (3.4): The Ibrahimya measurement mast [6]... 29 Table (3.5): The Ibrahimya24 measurement mast [6]... 29 Table (3.6): Technical results for the Hofa and Ibrahimya wind farms... 38 Table (3.7):The Zabda measurement mast [6]... 42 Table (3.8): The Tafila2 measurement mast [6]... 43 Table (3.9): The Fujaij measurement mast [6]... 46 Table (3.10): Technical results for the Tafila and Fujaij wind farms... 53 Table (3.11): The Aqaba RSW measurement mast [6]... 57 Table (3.12): The Aqaba5 measurement mast [6]... 57 Table (3.13): Technical result for the Aqaba wind farm... 62 Table (4.1): Annual energy production based on P50 and P75... 66 Table (4.2): The payback period [Years] for different cases in the Hofa site... 73 Table (4.3): The net present value [US$] for different cases in the Hofa site... 74 Table (4.4): The internal rate of return [%] for different cases in the Hofa site... 75 Table (4.5): The return on investment [%] for different cases in the Hofa site... 75 Table (4.6): The levelized cost of energy [US$/kWh] for different cases... 76 Table (4.7): The payback period [Years] for different cases in the Ibrahimya site... 84 Table (4.8): The net present value [US$] for different cases in the Ibrahimya site... 84 Table (4.9): The internal rate of return [%] for different cases in the Ibrahimya site... 85 Table (4.10): The return on investment [%] for different cases in the Ibrahimya site... 85 Table (4.11): The levelized cost of energy [US$/kWh] for different cases... 86 Table (4.12): The payback period [Years] for different cases in the Tafila site... 94 Table (4.13): The net present value [US$] for different cases in the Tafila site... 94 Table (4.14): The internal rate of return [%] for different cases in the Tafila site... 95 Table (4.15): The return on Investment [%] for different cases in the Tafila site... 95 Table (4.16): The levelized cost of energy [US$/kWh] for different cases... 96 Table (4.17): The payback period [Years] for different cases in the Fujaij site... 103 Table (4.18): The net present value [US$] for different cases in the Fujaij site... 104 Table (4.19): The internal rate of return [%] for different cases in the Fujaij site... 104 Table (4.20): The return on investment [%] for different cases in the Fujaij site... 105 Table (4.21): The levelized cost of energy [US$/kWh] for the different cases... 105 Table (4.22): The payback period [Years] for different cases in the Aqaba site... 113 VII

Table (4.23): The net present value [US$] for different cases in the Aqaba site... 113 Table (4.24): The internal rate of return [%] for different cases in the Aqaba site... 114 Table (4.25): The return on investment [%] for different cases in the Aqaba site... 114 Table (4.26): The levelized cost of energy [US$/kWh] for the different cases... 115 Table (5.1): Technical comparison between different regions in Jordan... 119 Table (5.2): Economic and financial comparisons between the different regions in Jordan... 122 Table (6.1): Scenario 1... 133 Table (6.2): Scenario 2... 135 VIII

List of Figures: Figure (2.1): The primary energy consumption in Jordan (2000-2009)... 6 Figure (2.2): The final energy consumption by sector in Jordan (2005-2009)... 6 Figure (2.3): Anticipated scenario of energy demands growth in Jordan... 7 Figure (2.4): The primary energy mix in Jordan (2008) [4]... 8 Figure (2.5): Targets of the updated master energy strategy in Jordan [5]... 9 Figure (3.1): The wind atlas for Jordan [6]... 18 Figure (3.2): The power plants map in Jordan [12]... 19 Figure (3.3): The map for selected sites and the closest power stations [13]... 20 Figure (3.4): The Northern part of Jordan [13]... 23 Figure (3.5): The Hofa wind farm... 24 Figure (3.6): The Hofa site with the mast location... 25 Figure (3.7): Result for the Hofa mast analysis... 27 Figure (3.8): The Ibrahimya wind farm... 27 Figure (3.9): The Ibrahimya site with masts locations... 28 Figure (3.10): Result for the Ibrahimya mast analysis... 30 Figure (3.11): Result for the Ibrahimya24 mast analysis... 31 Figure (3.12): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind average speed at 80m in Hofa... 32 Figure (3.13): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind energy at 80m in Hofa... 33 Figure (3.14): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind average speed at 80m in Ibrahimya... 33 Figure (3.15): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind energy at 80m in Ibrahimya... 34 Figure (3.16): The Hofa wind farm layout with 500m distance... 35 Figure (3.17): The Ibrahimya wind farm layout with 500m distance... 35 Figure (3.18): The general wind farm layout... 36 Figure (3.19): The Hofa wind farm layout... 37 Figure (3.20): The Ibrahimya wind farm layout... 38 Figure (3.21): The middle part of Jordan [13]... 39 Figure (3.22): The Tafila site... 41 Figure (3.23): The Tafila site with the masts locations... 42 Figure (3.24): Result for the Zabda mast analysis... 44 Figure (3.25): Result for the Tafila2 mast analysis... 44 Figure (3.26): The Fujaij site... 45 Figure (3.27): The Fujaij site with the mast location... 46 Figure (3.28): Result for the Fujaij mast analysis... 47 Figure (3.29): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind average speed at 80m in Tafila.. 49 Figure (3.30): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind energy at 80m in Tafila... 49 Figure (3.31): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind average speed at 80m in Fujaij.. 50 Figure (3.32): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind energy at 80m in Fujaij... 50 Figure (3.33): The Tafila wind farm layout... 52 IX

Figure (3.34): The Fujaij wind farm layout... 52 Figure (3.35): The South part of Jordan [13]... 54 Figure (3.36): The Aqaba site... 55 Figure (3.37): The Aqaba site with the masts locations... 56 Figure (3.38): Result for the Aqaba RSW mast analysis... 58 Figure (3.39): Result for the Aqaba5 mast analysis... 59 Figure (3.40): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind average speed at 80m in Aqaba. 60 Figure (3.41): The Wind PRO simulation for the wind energy at 80m in Aqaba... 60 Figure (3.42): The Aqaba wind farm layout... 62 Figure (4.1): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 69 Figure (4.2): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 69 Figure (4.3): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 70 Figure (4.4): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 70 Figure (4.5): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 71 Figure (4.6): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 71 Figure (4.7): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 72 Figure (4.8): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 72 Figure (4.9): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 73 Figure (4.10): The sensitivity analysis for the Hofa wind farm... 77 Figure (4.11): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 79 Figure (4.12): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 80 Figure (4.13): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 80 Figure (4.14): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 81 Figure (4.15): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 81 Figure (4.16): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 82 Figure (4.17): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 82 Figure (4.18): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 83 Figure (4.19): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 83 Figure (4.20): The sensitivity analysis for the Ibrahimya wind farm... 87 Figure (4.21): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 89 Figure (4.22): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 90 Figure (4.23): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 90 Figure (4.24): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 91 Figure (4.25): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 91 Figure (4.26): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 92 Figure (4.27): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 92 Figure (4.28): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 93 Figure (4.29): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh)... 93 Figure (4.30): The sensitivity analysis for the Tafila wind farm... 97 Figure (4.31): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh)... 99 X

Figure (4.32): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh)... 99 Figure (4.33): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh). 100 Figure (4.34): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh). 100 Figure (4.35): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh). 101 Figure (4.36): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh). 101 Figure (4.37): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh). 102 Figure (4.38): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh). 102 Figure (4.39): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh). 103 Figure (4.40): The sensitivity analysis for the Fujaij wind farm... 106 Figure (4.41): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh). 108 Figure (4.42): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh). 109 Figure (4.43): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1408$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh). 109 Figure (4.44): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh). 110 Figure (4.45): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh). 110 Figure (4.46): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 1830$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh). 111 Figure (4.47): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.07$/kWh). 111 Figure (4.48): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.11$/kWh). 112 Figure (4.49): Debts and accumulated liquidity (CC = 2253$/kW, FIT = 0.17$/kWh). 112 Figure (4.50): The sensitivity analysis for Aqaba wind farm... 116 Figure (5.1): Relative mean wind turbine generation [%] compared to the Aqaba wind farm... 120 Figure (5.2): Levelized cost [US$/ kwh] and full load hours [Hours/Year] for all sites 122 Figure (5.3): Monthly energy yield for the Hofa wind farm... 124 Figure (5.4): Hourly mean wind speed [m/s] for the Hofa mast (45 m and 30 m a.g.l.) 125 Figure (5.5): Monthly energy yield for the Ibrahimya wind farm... 125 Figure (5.6): Hourly mean wind speed [m/s] for the Ibrahimya24 mast (26 m and 10 m a.g.l.)... 126 Figure (5.7): Monthly energy yield for the Tafila wind farm... 126 Figure (5.8): Hourly mean wind speed [m/s] for the Tafila2 mast (45 m and 30 m a.g.l.)... 127 Figure (5.9): Monthly energy yield for the Fujaij wind farm... 127 Figure (5.10): Hourly mean wind speed [m/s] for the Fujaij3 mast (50 m, 32 m and 10m a.g.l.)... 128 Figure (5.11): Monthly energy yield for the Aqaba wind farm... 128 Figure (5.12): Hourly mean wind speed [m/s] for the Aqaba5 mast (45 m and 30 m a.g.l.)... 129 Figure (5.13): Monthly energy yield for all wind farms... 129 Figure (6.1): Scenario 1... 134 Figure (6.2): Scenario 2... 136 Figure (6.3): Accumulative installed capacity (senario1 and senario2)... 136 XI

List of Nomenclature and Abbreviations: AEP: Annual Energy Production a.g.l. Above Ground Level CC: Capital Cost CEGCO: Central Electricity Generating Co. CF: Capacity Factor CO: Crude Oil EDCO: Electricity Distribution Co. ERC: Electricity Sector Regulatory Commission FIT: Feed in Tariff FLH: Full Load Hours GDP: Gross Domestic Product IDECO: Irbid District Electricity Company LTD. IRR: Internal Rate of Return JEC: Jordan Electric Company JEPCO: Jordanian Electric Power Company LC: Levelized Cost MEMR: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources NEPCO: National Electric Power Co. NERC: National Energy Research Centre NG: Natural Gas NPV: Net Present Value O&M: Operation and Maintenance Cost PBP: Payback Period P50: Probability Level 50 P75: Probability Level 75 ROI: Return on Investment RSS: Royal Scientific Society SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission TCC: Total Capital Cost TOE: Ton Oil Equivalent VC: Variable Cost WTG: Wind Turbine Generation XII

Acknowledgment My sincere thanks and gratitude are due to Prof. Peter Zachariac, Prof. Adel Khalil, Mr. Stefan Chun and Mrs. Martina Dabo who supervised this study, discussed the thesis and whose keen interest and valuable comments were essential for its success. I am deeply indebted to Mr. Malek Al Kabariti for his valuable suggestions. Further thanks go to Mr. Salah Al Azzam and my colleagues in the National Energy Research centre (NERC) for their help and for providing the needed information to accomplish this thesis. Also I will not forget to thank Mr. Emil Alasis for sharing his experience and knowledge during my study. I would like to thank my colleagues in the REMENA program for their valuable feedback and support. I would also like to express my deepest sense of gratitude to Laith Basha who was always by my side with his fruitful collaboration. Moreover, I consider it an honor to work with Stefan Manolescu, Dominik Fremgen, and Robin Meisel, Tina Göbel, Jörg Niestrath and Frank Philipp; my colleagues in CUBE Engineering. It gives me great pleasure in acknowledging them for their continuous help and encouragement. Finally, I will take this opportunity to express my profound gratitude to my beloved parents and siblings for their moral support, patience, and prayers during my study, and who were with me in each step to complete this master thesis. XIII

Abstract Jordan has a lack of conventional energy resources so it relies on neighboring countries in order to meet its demands. In concrete, resources such as crude oil, natural gas, and electricity must be imported. However, it is rich in renewable energy resources. Specifically, the most important and an attractive option, is the use of wind as a source of energy. In fact, Jordan has a very good wind potential, which can meet the growing energy demand. Five sites were selected in different regions of Jordan (north-hofa, north-ibrahimya, middle-tafila, middle-fujaij, and south-aqaba). Measurements by the National Energy Research Centre (NERC) where collected for many years, these measurements were evaluated in order to have an overview about the potential of wind resources in Jordan and to compare the different potentials for these sites. Those measurements were raw data of the average wind speed and wind direction. A wind farm was designed in each of the selected site by using the Wind PRO software and then technical and financial assessments were carried out. Those assessments have proved that the wind energy project can be a successfully project in Jordan and they are very attractive to investors. The Aqaba wind farm has shown that it is the best when compared with the other selected sites while the Tafila wind farm is in second place. Those two sites are likely the most promising sites to continue achieving the target of supplying Jordan with cheap and reliable energy. Also, they compensate each other depending on the season. Moreover, the two scenarios are suggested to achieve the Jordanian target 1000MW of wind energy by 2020 according to this thesis results. XIV

Chapter 1: Introduction 1

1. Introduction Wind Energy is one of the most promising sources for renewable energy in Jordan. There are many sites which have a good wind potential. This thesis looks at technical and financial aspects of wind farm installation for many sites, and it provides comparison and evaluation for different wind development regions, which gives the overall picture about the wind potential, grid capacity, energy consumption and needed infrastructure for installing wind farms for many areas in Jordan. The Wind PRO Software has been used to analyze the real measurements masts for the wind speed and wind directions and to predict the energy yield, capacity factors, and wind farms layouts for the selected sites. In the second chapter the Energy Sector, Electricity Sector, Wind projects, and Renewable Energy Law in Jordan will be introduced. In this chapter it will be revealed the several parameters which are affecting the wind projects and investors who want to enter the Jordanian energy market. It also gives an indication about the whole Jordanian situation regarding renewable energy, especially wind energy since wind energy is one of the cheapest available renewable energy sources. The following chapter will be about the technical assessment of wind regimes in different regions in Jordan. It will cover many technical aspects such as the wind potential in Jordan, national grid transmission lines, sites selection, wind turbines selection, analyzing raw data from real measurements masts, and designing five wind farms in different sites. The calculations are carried out for (CF) capacity factor, (AEP) annual energy production, array losses, average wind speed, wind direction roses, and the final wind farms layouts. In addition, the fourth chapter will be about the financial assessment of potential wind energy projects for the selected sites in Jordan. It will cover many financial aspects such as the payback period, net present value, internal rate of return, return on investment, levelized cost, and sensitivity analysis. In addition, the fifth chapter will be about the comparison between the selected sites from technical and financial viewpoints. Also it will explain briefly how the wind regime is different from site to site on an hourly and monthly basis. Finally, the sixth chapter will recommend the scenarios to achieve the Jordanian target of wind energy. This chapter will suggest the two scenarios to reach the Jordanian target 1000MW of wind energy by 2020. 2

Chapter 2: Overview for Energy Situation and Wind Energy in Jordan 3

2. Overview for Energy Situation and Wind Energy in Jordan 2.1 Energy Sector in Jordan 2.1.1 Status of Energy Sector In order to better understand the current status and the planned future of the energy sector in Jordan, it is important to present some introductory geographic and demographic as well as economic information about the country besides some statistics of the energy consumption from various sectors over the last ten years. Jordan is located in the Middle East. Situated between the longitudes 35 o and 39 o E and between the latitudes 29 o and 33 o N with a total area of 92,300 km 2. 90% of this area is classified as desert. Considering the past ten years, i.e. 2000-2009, the population has increased from 4,900,000 up to 5,980,000 with an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.5% [1]. Jordan is classified by the World Bank as a "lower middle income country". The nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009 was $22.929 billion ($3,828 per capita) achieving an annual growth rate of 3.2%. According to the Department of Statistics, almost 13% of the economically active Jordanian population residing in Jordan was unemployed in 2008. The currency has been stable with an exchange rate fixed to the U.S. dollar since 1995 at JD 0.708 to the dollar [1]. This continuous growth of population and economy has been accompanied with an increase in the energy consumption as can be seen in table (2.1) which demonstrates of the behavior of energy demands with the variation of population and economic indicators. 4

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Population (1000) 5,473 5,600 5,723 5,850 5,980 nominal GDP Total(million) 12,707 14,096 16,527 20,007 22,935 ( USD) per capita 2,322 2,517 2,888 3,420 3,835 Primary energy Total 1000 TOE 7,028 7,187 7,438 7,335 7,739 consumption TOE / capita 1.284 1.283 1.300 1.254 1.294 energy intensity TOE / $1000 0.68 0.66 0.62 0.58 0.57 Annual electricity GWh 8,712 9,593 10,553 11,509 11,956 consumption kwh / capita 1,592 1,713 1,844 1,967 1,999 Table (2.1): Energy consumption relation with population and economy in Jordan (2005-2009) [1] 2.1.2 Consumption and Future Demands Jordan has experienced an average growth rate of primary energy demands of 5.1% per year over the past ten years. The consumption has risen from 5114 up to 7739million Ton Oil Equivalent (TOE) as illustrated in figure (2.1) which was plotted according to the data available from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources [2]. Most of the final energy (39%) is consumed by the transportation sector while the industrial and residential sectors equally consume 22%. The rest of final energy is consumed by commercial buildings and public services such as water pumping and street lighting. the energy consumption by various sector is shown in figure (2.2). 5

Figure (2.1): The primary energy consumption in Jordan (2000-2009) Figure (2.2): The final energy consumption by sector in Jordan (2005-2009) 6