FP7- SPA.2013.1.1-06: Stimulating development of downstream services and service evolution. Contract N : 606983 A downstream service to support agro-production, planning and policy http://www.ermes-fp7space.eu/ 2014-2017 Boschetti.m@irea.cnr.it

PROJECT FRAMEWORK FP7 Space project to create a downstream service What is an FP7 project Provide added value information to agro sector exploiting availabe space data and Europena core services 26/05/2017 2

OVERALL PRESENTATION OF THE PROJECT FP7-SPACE-2013-1- CALL - Contract N : 606983 REA Project officer Ines Marin-Moreno

PROJECT FRAMEWORK Why ERMES: provide information to agro-sector FP7-SPACE ERMES aims to develop a prototype of downstream service dedicated to rice sector based on assimilation of EO and in situ data within crop yield modelling. The objective of this service, targeted to European needs, is to: contribute to the regional authorities in the implementation of agro-environmental policies; provide independent reliable information to the agro-business sector. support farming activities for sustainable management practices; The long term goal is to extend and adapt the service to Asian and African markets, in order to boost European competitiveness and contribute to a sustainable development.

The project/services Concept 26/05/2017 5 5

PROJECT FRAMEWORK: WHERE WE ARE AND WHO WE SERVE! Study areas Europe Italy Spain Greece West Africa Gambia Senegal ERMES user Allianz Re Regulatory Board of Denominación de Origen Arroz de Valencia (C.R.D.O.) DG Agricoltura Regione Lombardia (RL) Cereal Institute of the Hellenic Agricultural Organisation (DEMETER) Ministry of Agriculture of Gambia JRS MARS unit ILVIA Local farmers Regional Plant Health Service ENTE RISI (ER) Cattolica Assicurazioni Lomellina district & single Farmers Agricultural cooperative Chalasytra B Thessaloniki KANAKAS BROS Ltd Plastiras Familiy (farmer/service provider) ECODEVELOPMENT_SA AFRICARICE (Senegal River) Since project proposal New USers IPLA- Regione Piemente AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVE AGIOS ATHANASIOS

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ASPECT

SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ASPECT Innovative approach Provide (receive) customized (ground) information to (from) different END-USERS, and disseminate it by SMART technologies (web 2.0) Smart app. Geoportal Synergic use of SAR and Optical data, from existing EO satellites and forthcoming ESA Sentinel missions, to derive specific products Satellite data Develop value added Agro-information by assimilating i) satellite observations, ii) in situ measurements and iii) Copernicus core services in crop models WARM model 8

ERMES: a prototype of downstream service Regional rice monitoring system in Europe (Italy, Spain and Greece)* EO processing chain: automatic procedure to derive geo products (Crop mapping, Meteo maps, LAI, Phenology ) as spatialized inputs for the model ERMES products Geo-processing 2 by 2 km Simulation «Grid» Modelling solution: customization of WARM rice model, for ERMES regional applications, to simulate rice growth processes on a 2x2 km grid over study areas (Italy, Spain, Greece and Gambia) Risk WARM MODEL Yield indicators Yield forecast Statistical analysis Outputs generation and deploy: provide via dedicated GEOPORTAL risk alert and yield estimation

ERMES services A system to monitor spatial variability of rice production at regional (district) and local scale Regional Rice Service (RRS) @ District scale Local Rice Service (LRS) @ Farm scale Provide to authorities (institution with monitoring mandate) customized agro-monitoring system devoted to regional yield estimates and risk alarming. provide to the private sector (farmers, cooperative, agro-consulting, etc) high level information on yield variability, risk alert and crop damage assessment at farm scale 10

SERVICE DEMONSTRATION RRS

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Interface of ERMES Regional Geoportal and examples of provided information 26/05/2017 12

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Rice maps ; Flooding Maps (WP 5) (EP_R1) WP5 Rice crop maps (30 m resolution) Periodic Maps of flooding conditions NRT estimation of rice cultivated area Interannual variations in rice area Spatio-temporal changes in irrigation schemes 26/05/2017 13

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Phenology maps (WP 5) (EP_R2) WP5 Sowing and Flowering dates maps (2x2 km) Identification of key phenological stages and anomalies Inputs for regional modelling 26/05/2017 14

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Leaf Area Index maps (WP 5) (EP_R3) WP5 Decadal maps from MODIS/PROBA-V (2x2 km) Anomalies in crop growth Inputs for regional modelling 26/05/2017 15

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Meteorological Maps and Forecasts (WP 5) (EP_R4) WP5 Daily maps of P, Tmax, Tmin, Precipitation, Humidity, Wind Speed, radiation (2x2 km) Anomalies in weather conditions; Inputs for regional modelling 26/05/2017 16

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Potential Risk of Rice Blast Infection (WP 6) (EI_R3) Daily risk maps Modelling Results Uses Meteo, Phenology and LAI maps as inputs! WP6 Number of High Risk Days - Spain Forecasting high-risk periods Qualitative analysis on impact on yield 26/05/2017 17

ERMES: biotic risk Daily values and 6-days forecasts of risks for blast infection and spikelet sterility («cold-spells») A Trip from Mountains to Valley: Copernicus satellites as sentinels" of environmental and economical changes 20/10/2015 18

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE HIGH-END APPLICATIONS Yield Forecast Bulletins Agro-monitoring bullettins, analyzing the on-going season and providing yield forecasts for selected varieties and rice districts ERMES Meteo, Phenology and LAI maps used as inputs in regional modelling solution Statistical postprocessing of modelling outputs and official statistics Two releases in Italy for ENR (at Flowering and Harvesting); One release for Spain and Greece Yield Forecast Bulletins 26/05/2017 19

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE HIGH-END APPLICATIONS Blast Risk Bullettins Automatic generation from ERMES modelling outputs Aggregation at municipality level and weekly time step Daily deployment of rice blast risk bullettins on website of Plant Health Service of Lombardy Region Example of Blast Risk Bulletins

SERVICE APPLICATION AT REGIONAL SCALE REGIONAL RICE SERVICE HIGH-END APPLICATIONS Phenological development analysis Comparison of on-going season with LTA data Highlights of anomalies Data exploited by JRS-MARS to issue their 2016 agromonitoring bulletins https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/jrc-mars-bulletin-vol24-no7.pdf NRT comparison of current vs. previous seasons

SERVICE DEMONSTRATION LRS

SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Interface of ERMES Local Geoportal and examples of provided information 26/05/2017 23

SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT AgriNotebook smart app WP7 Information collected by farmers/field operators retrievable in web interface and used as input for crop modelling 26/05/2017 24

SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Constant pattern maps (EP_L2) WP5 Based on the analysis of archive satellite images Highlight intrinsic variability of single rice parcels, causing constant yield differences on different years 26/05/2017 25

SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Seasonal pattern maps (EP_L3; EI_L7) WP5 Based on the analysis of satellite Images acquired in critical moments of the season «Early» season High-Resolution SAR (CSK 3m) Highlight problems related to bad germination/other early season problems 26/05/2017 26

SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Seasonal pattern maps (EP_L2) WP5 Based on the analysis of satellite Images acquired in critical moments of the season «Late» season High-Resolution optical (RapidEye) Variability map 04/07/2016 Classification 04/07/2016 Highlight variability in crop biomass / nutritional status Below Average On Average Above Average 26/05/2017 27

SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT LAI maps (EP_R4 EP_L4) WP5 Dense time series of HR LAI maps from OLI/Sentinel-2 Effect of Akiochi Attack Wrong herbicide treatment Highlight effect of diseases/other damages Inputs for local modelling 26/05/2017 28

Growth Stage SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Local Biotic risks; Development stage (EI_Lx) WP6 Model outputs for each field can be visualized in the ERMES GeoPortal and are used to issue mail alerts 1 st FERTILIZATION 2 nd FERTILIZATION Mail alerts can be sent upon reaching the most suitable moments for nitrogen ferilization 26/05/2017 29

Risk Level (%) SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE PRODUCTS GENERATION AND DEPLOYMENT Local Biotic risks; Development stage (EI_Lx) WP6 Model outputs for each field can be visualized in the ERMES GeoPortal and are used to issue mail alerts High Risk! Potential risk of Blast Infection Mail alerts can be sent upon detection of high-risk periods for rice blast infection 26/05/2017 30

SERVICE APPLICATION AT LOCAL SCALE LOCAL RICE SERVICE EXPLOITATION OF PRODUCTS/SERVICES FOR HIGH-END APPLICATIONS Support for Variable Rate Fertilization ERMES variability maps (constant and seasonal) were transformed in prescription maps to be used as inputs for variable rate fertilization techniques (Precision Agriculture) Support for pre-sowing and top-dressing fertilization Italy 2015-2016 In 2015 and 2016 several rice fields were managed with different levels of Nitrogen fertilization based on ERMES variability maps Constant variability map Seasonal variability map 14 July 2015 and 2016 experiments demonstrated that managing fields based on prescription maps generated from ERMES products allows a more rational use of fertilizers, allowing to achieve a better homogeneity in final yield and/or a reduction of fertilization costs. Pre-sowing prescription map Top-dressing prescription map 50 Units /ha 33 Unità /ha 27 Units /ha 30 Units /ha 33 Units /ha From Constant/Seasonal Patterns to prescription maps 26/05/2017 31