Wild and farmed fish in the USA seafood market John Connelly Your essential event for networking and information
US Market Trends and Impact on Fishmeal October 2017 John Connelly
Topics Outline National Fisheries Institute introduction Trends in US seafood consumption Wild and farmed species changes Trade challenges in new political environment
National Fisheries Institute Who We Are Represent industry water to table Voice for industry on legislative, regulatory and media matters Not statutory body, and no designation from government as to role representing industry Funded solely by private investment Served on Board of MSC, ALLFISH (World Bank partnership), ICFA, and ISSF and as advisor to Secretary of Commerce for fisheries issues.
NFI Key Issues Where We Spend our Resources (by discipline) Legislative Regulatory Courts Communications Health benefits Low High Medium High Aquaculture Medium Medium Low High Trade High Medium High High Sustainability Medium Low High High Economic integrity Low High Low High
NFI Priorities Where We Work Issue Life Cycle Resources Legislative Regulatory Communications - Media - Marketplace - Consumer Outreach Litigation Fix Problems in Source Countries Time
Seafood as Part of Protein Mix
US Markets Total Seafood Consumption: What Business Are You in? Food Protein Seafood Wild Farmed Fish meal Fish oil
US Markets Total Seafood Consumption: Comparison to other proteins (share of spend) Source: DOL Consumer Expenditure Survey
POUNDS PER CAPITA US Markets Total Seafood Consumption: Comparison to other proteins (per capita) Source: USDA WASDE Report, NOAA, chicken, pork and beef adjusted to edible weight
BILLIONS OF POUNDS US Markets Total Seafood Consumption: Among 3 Largest Overall Markets (volume) Source: NOAA
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS US Markets Total Seafood Consumption: Among 3 Largest Overall Markets (value) Source: NOAA
US Markets Total Seafood Consumption: Significant shifts due to wild salmon Source: NOAA, NFI GSMC
Wild and Farmed Species Markets
MT (1000) US Markets Wild Capture Markets - Cod WHOLE FISH WEIGHT 1600 Pacific Cod Atlantic Cod 1400 1298 1306 1256 1200 1000 800 600 459 465 463 400 200 GFF 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Est 2017 Est Source: Groundfish Forum
'000 MT US Markets Wild Capture Markets - Haddock 450 NORWAY RUSSIA ICELAND EU USA / CANADA FAROES 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: FAO
'000 MT US Markets Wild Capture Markets Alaska Pollock 4000 3500 USA Russia Japan S-Korea 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: FAO
MT(1000) US Markets Farmed Fish Markets Global Tilapia Harvest WHOLE FISH WEIGHT 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 Source: Groundfish Forum 5,798 5,550 5,339 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 est 2016 est 2017 est
MT (1000) US Markets Farmed Fish Markets China Tilapia Harvest 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 WHOLE FISH WEIGHT 1,710 1,724 1,776 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 est 2016 est 2017 est Source: Groundfish Forum
US Markets Farmed Fish Markets US Frozen and China Global Supply Source: * GFF,**NMFS/NFI, Urner Barry
MT(1000) US Markets Farmed Fish Markets Pangasius Harvest WHOLE FISH WEIGHT Indonesia Bangledesh India Other Vietnam 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2488 2443 2564 2627 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Est 2017 Est Source: GAA, FAO
MT(1000) US Markets Farmed Fish Markets Pangasius Vietnam Harvest and US Imports WHOLE FISH WEIGHT US Imports Vietnam Farmed output 1325 1225 1125 1025 925 825 725 625 525 425 325 225 125 25 26% 29% 22% 26% 27% 26% 13% 11% 16% 16% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *Oct Source: NMFS/NFI,GFF,Urner Barry
US Markets Farmed Fish Markets Farmed shrimp increasingly driven by Asia 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% CHINA AND SE ASIA PASSED US AS LARGEST GLOBAL SHRIMP EXPORT DESTINATION IN 2015 US China, Viet, SE Asia Japan Europe Other 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 MAJOR COUNTRY SJHRIMP EXPORT: THAILAND, INDIA, CHINA, ECUADOR. INDONESIA Exports to (and within) Asia have doubled in five years
(000'S) POUNDS US Markets Farmed Fish Markets US Shift to India and Indonesia 1,200,000 YEAR TO DATE (OCT) US IMPORTS BY COUNTRY Thailand India Indonesia Ecuador Vietnam China (mainland) Mexico Malaysia 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Customs Data
THOUSAND METRIC TONS (ROUND WEIGHT EQUIVALENT) US Markets Farmed Fish Markets - Salmon 1,400 APPROXIMATE WORLD ATLANTIC SALMON SUPPLY AND END-MARKETS 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Where the salmon is consumed Other markets EU USA 0 Norway Chile Canada Other Countries Where the salmon is produced Source: Kontali
US Markets Farmed Fish Markets Chile and Canada dominate US 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 US ATLANTIC SALMON IMPORTS Chile Canada Norway Faroe Is. UK Other 0 Fresh fillets Fresh head-on Frozen fillets Source: NOAA Foreign Trade in Fisheries Products data
METRIC TONS US Markets Farmed Fish Markets US Remains Major Chilean Market TOTAL CHILEAN SALMON EXPORTS, 2015 & 2016 (JAN-SEP) 2015 2016 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 USA Brazil Other Americas 40% of Chilean exports are to the USA Far East EU Russia Other Source: Kontali Analyse
US Markets Trade Issues President Trump campaigned on strong protection of domestic production Senior advisors have significant antidumping and Rules of Origin experience representing US domestic industries Seafood Import Monitoring Program Customs and Border Protection service analysis of trade, including labor treatment at Tier 4 suppliers Shift to USDA inspection of farmed catfish, to create trade barrier
US Markets Impact on Fishmeal US remains among largest seafood markets in world, even with low per capita consumption Seafood competes increasingly with proteins other than beef, pork, poultry As wild harvest stocks strengthen globally, institutional buyers are increasingly looking at those options Two largest farmed species. tilapia ( click bait social media ) and pangasius (USDA oversight trade barrier).. face major headwinds in US market Two other farmed species (shrimp and salmon) are on more solid footing As farmed species are major import items, US government trade policies of concern
US Market Trends and Impact on Fishmeal John Connelly jconnelly@nfi.org