Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A Report No: PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF ISTANBUL SEISMIC RISK MITIGATION AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PROJECT LOAN NUMBER 4784 TU IN THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF EURO 310 MILLION (US$ 400 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND A RESTRUCTURED AMOUNT OF EURO 310 MILLION (US$ 400 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY March 25, 2010 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS DMC IBRD IPCU ISMEP PDO Disaster Management Center International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Istanbul Project Coordination Unit Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project Project Development Objective Vice President: Country Director: Sector Manager: Task Team Leader: Philippe H. Le Houerou Ulrich Zachau Wael Zakout Jolanta Kryspin-Watson 2
TURKEY ISTANBUL SEISMIC RISK MITIGATION AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PROJECT CONTENTS Page ANNEX 1: Proposed Changes... 5 ANNEX 2: Appraisal Summary Update... 8 ANNEX 3: Updated Critical Risk Framework... 9 ANNEX 4: Results Framework and Monitoring... 10 3
I N S E R T D A T A S H E E T H E R E THE DATA SHEET SHOULD BE INSERTED IN THIS SECTION MANUALLY IN HARD COPY BEFORE SENDING A FINAL RP TO THE PRINT SHOP. DO NOT INCLUDE THIS INSTRUCTION PAGE IN THE RP SENT TO THE PRINT SHOP. NOTE: The Data Sheet can be found in the Data Sheet tab of the RP section of the Operations Portal. Information in it is updated whenever such information is manually changed in the Data Sheet tab at any stage during project restructuring. Prior to sending the final RP to the Print Shop, it is best practice to confirm the information in the data sheet before printing it out and inserting it here. 4
ANNEX 1: Proposed Changes a. What are the proposed changes, as applicable, in the project s development objectives, outcomes, design, and/or scope? There are no changes to the Project Development Objective (PDO), outcomes, design, or scope. The proposed changes are: (i) Loan Closing Date extension; and (ii) revision of a target value in an Intermediate Result Indicator for Component B (Seismic Risk Mitigation for Public Buildings) of the project; and (iii) dropping one of the Intermediate Result Indicators to reflect an amendment to the Loan Agreement of July 17, 2007. b. What are the other complementary changes, as applicable: Institutional arrangements Financing mechanism/conduit Outputs _X_ Yes No Based on current construction unit costs and the higher-than-anticipated number of priority facilities requiring reconstruction rather than strengthening due to structural weakness (reconstruction costs 7 to 10 times more than retrofitting), the number of the public buildings anticipated to be retrofitted or reconstructed within the project financing envelope under Component B will be about 550 buildings versus the originally-planned 800. The target for the associated intermediate outcome indicator, Key selected public facilities are retrofitted in order to ensure their operation in the aftermath of a disaster, will be adjusted accordingly (see Annex 4). On July 17, 2007, the Loan Agreement was amended to drop feasibility assessments of lifelines and vital infrastructure which are now being carried out under another Bankfinanced project implemented in Istanbul. The revised results framework for the project reflects this change to Component B (Seismic Risk Mitigation for Public Buildings) in Annex 4. Project Costs and financing plan (include summary tables) 5
Financial management Yes _X_ No Disbursement arrangements Yes _X_ No Procurement Closing date _X_ Yes No The Loan Closing Date is proposed to be extended by 15 months from September 30, 2010 to December 31, 2011 in response to a request from the Government of Turkey dated January 27, 2010 (Ref: B.02.1.HZN.0.08.01.203.14). Although progress towards achieving the PDO has been consistently satisfactory throughout the life of the project, but the necessity for the requested extension stems from unforeseen delays. After Bank approval, it took almost nine months for the project loan to become effective, and while the feasibility studies and designs for the first tranche of public facilities to be retrofitted were developed during the preparation phase, an introduction in Turkey of a new building code led to the need for revisions in the technical studies and designs. Consequently, the retrofitting works started in 2007, after carrying out the reviews and amendments to the designs in accordance with the provisions of the new regulations on design of earthquake resistant structures. Therefore, the implementation schedule for the seismic mitigation investments has shifted accordingly. Moreover, a crucial part of the project component aiming at enhancing Istanbul s emergency preparedness is establishing a new Disaster Management Center (DMC). While the designs were completed and the construction initiated in accordance with the agreed plan, the contractor fell under bankruptcy procedures and the works contract had to be re-tendered. This development was beyond the control of the Istanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU) and the Government. All steps to proceed with planned investment were taken and in accordance with the new schedule, the construction phase will start in spring 2010 but the establishment of a fully equipped, staffed and operational DMC cannot be completed by the current Loan Closing Date. The proposed extension will allow concluding above activities which are essential for achieving the project development objective. To date, the project disbursed 182 million (US$260 million equivalent) of the total 310 (US$400 million equivalent) or over 60% of the loan. 6
Implementation schedule _X_ Yes No The timeframe for the implementation schedule has been adjusted to reflect extension of the project closing date and completion of planned activities. 7
ANNEX 2: Appraisal Summary Update Do the proposed changes result in significant change of impact (from original Appraisal Summary of the PAD) in the following: Economic and financial analysis Technical Social Environment Exceptions to Bank Policy 8
ANNEX 3: Updated Critical Risk Framework New Risks Identified During Implementation/Restructuring That Might Jeopardize Achievement of the Restructured Project DOs or Outcome Targets: Risks Risk Rating Risk Mitigation Measures Increase in unit costs of construction works will further decrease target number of public facilities to be seismically strengthened or reconstructed. M The new target estimates are based on the knowledge gained after three years of project implementation and experience with using technical standards which are in accordance with new building code and engineering guidelines. 9
ANNEX 4: Results Framework and Monitoring TURKEY: ISTANBUL SEISMIC RISK MITIGATION AND EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS PROJECT Results Framework PDO Project Outcome Indicators Use of Project Outcome Information Current Proposed Current Proposed Current Proposed Istanbul (the government, people and facilities) is well prepared to a major earthquake. No change. Key public facilities are retrofitted to resist a major earthquake; skills and technical capacities of the relevant emergency response units are strengthened; building code enforcement and compliance with land use plans are improved. No change. Formulate public policies and programs for seismic risk mitigation in the country risk-prone areas. No change. Intermediate Outcomes Intermediate Outcome Indicators Use of Intermediate Outcome Monitoring Current Proposed Current Proposed Current Proposed Component A: No change. Component A: No change. Component A: No change. Capacity of the provincial and municipal public safety organizations in Istanbul to respond to major disasters is New communication system is installed and fully operational in emergency response facilities. Assess effectiveness of the systems and training through a day-to-day application and mock exercises.
enhanced; coordination between regional emergency response agencies, as well as between the Istanbul authorities and the national government are improved. Emergency management information and communication systems are installed and used in daily operations. The Governorship Disaster Management Center (AYM) is strengthened. Define additional training needs. Support municipal and provincial governments with decision-making tools. Performance may feed into institutional changes in emergency management. The public safety units are provided with the adequate emergency response equipment. The relevant agencies and volunteer groups are trained. Component B: Key selected public facilities are retrofitted in order to ensure their operation in the aftermath of a disaster. No change. Component B: Around 800 public buildings retrofitted. Feasibility assessments of lifelines and vital infrastructure completed. Vulnerability assessment of selected cultural heritage buildings completed. Around 550 public buildings retrofitted/reconstructed. (Dropped.) Feasibility assessments of lifelines and vital infrastructure completed. (No change.) Vulnerability assessment of selected cultural heritage buildings completed. Component B: Replication on the national scale of the methodology for the prioritization and strengthening of public facilities, based on transparent criteria. Exposure and wider use of new seismic strengthening techniques by engineering and construction industry. No change. 11
Informed decisions on retrofitting/reconstruction of lifelines and vital infrastructure. Increased donor awareness of need and opportunities to invest in protection of cultural assets. Component C: No changes. Component C: No change. Component C: No change. Better enforcement of building codes and progress made in implementation of land use plans in selected municipalities. Improvement in compliance with building codes and land use plans in selected Istanbul municipalities. Revised policies and procedures for improved code enforcement. Voluntary accreditation and training of engineers has started. 12
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