Victor Zhou, International Copper Association Copper Production, Flow and Usage in Southeast Asia Current and Future
Content Macroeconomic Overview Copper Production & Flow from Concentrate to Semis Copper End-use Market Future Outlook
Macroeconomic Overview
ASEAN (Southeast Asia) Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam *ASEAN 5 in bold
GDP and GDP Per Capita (2013)
Market Size of Copper Semis End-use 2nd Fastest growing market in the World 3rd Largest in Asia
ASEAN5 is Growing Copper Semis Per Capita Japan China West Europe North America ASEAN (2006 & 2012) India GDP: CAGR 5.1% Copper semis end-use : CAGR 7.9% Note: size of bubble indicates the market size of copper semis end-use
ASEAN5 is Growing - Copper Semis Per GDP Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Copper Per GDP varies due to: -Industrialization level -Openness to trade Note: size of bubble indicates the market size of copper semis end-use
Copper Production and Flow
Copper Ore/Concentrate Production (tonnage of copper in concentrate) 50-100kt PHILIPPINES 430kt INDONESIA
Copper Ore/Concentrate Trade (tonnage of ore/concentrate)
Refined Copper Production (tonnage of copper) 8kt VIETNAM (2010) 98kt PHILIPPINES lower than 2011, due to PASAR accident 273kt INDONESIA Source: UN Comtrade
Refined Copper Trade(tonnage of copper)
Copper Scrap Trade(tonnage of scrap)
Copper Semis Production (tonnage of copper content) 251kt THAILAND 218kt MALAYSIA 344kt INDONESIA 118kt VIETNAM 76kt PHILIPPINES
Copper Semis Trade (tonnage of copper content)
Copper End-use Market
Building Construction (Building Wire & Cable) Construction Floor Space residential property construction increase significantly especially in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam Copper density urban residential uses ~20% more copper per m2 vs. rural residential Copper conductor used only copper enjoy 100% market share except Indonesia (although there is no existing regulation to allow use of Al wire); substitution from CCA and AAC being countered by regulation too
Power Infrastructure (Cables & Transformers) Continued strong government investment on power infrastructure for electrification Power utilities focus on loss reduction, leading to use of more power cables and higher copper density transformers Underground cabling systems with copper as cities modernize and Use of copper submarine cables to connect islands
Home Appliance (Air-conditioner Tubes and Connecting Wires) Increasing household income leads to increase use of electrical household appliances (especially air conditioners) Demand side energy management (peak load) energy efficient appliances of higher copper density
Transportation (Automobiles and Motorcycles) Increasing middle income group especially in Indonesia and Vietnam see high growth in demand for automotive vehicles Shift from 2 wheelers to 4 wheelers (more copper wire) Potential shift to more fuel efficient car (hybrid, EV) will also have higher copper content
Industrial (Industrial Motors, Transformers, Cables) Rapid industrialization in Thailand and Malaysia now being caught up by Indonesia and Vietnam ASEAN seen as strong alternate manufacturing hub to China due to costs Global competition and AEC 2015 accelerating industries to develop energy efficiency measures e.g. High efficiency motors (20-30% higher copper density)
Major Copper End-use - Summary Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are the top three copper end-use market Indonesia and Vietnam are the two fastest growth market or around 7% for the past 5 years Thailand & Malaysia are relatively saturated market with large manufacturing industry
Future Outlook
Real GDP Growth Rate (2008-2016) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
Demographic Dividend Smaller Household Size Up 31% Source: Global Demographics Ltd
Demographic Dividend - Growing Household Expenditure (2012-2032) Change in USD billion per annum expenditure by income group (2012-2032) Source: Global Demographics Ltd
Growing and Young Labor Force ASEAN 5 demographics support strong and continued high growth - continue population growth with a young and substantial labour force - 301 million or 51% of total population between age of 20-54 years) ASEAN Population Distribution by Age
Growing Thirst for Energy Economy to triple by 2035, despite some headwinds at present Population of 600 million to expand by almost one quarter by 2035 Per-capita energy use is still low & 134 million people lack access to electricity
ASEAN - Semi-finished Copper Product Total Market Size (2008-2016) Unit: 000 tons Source: ICA estimates
ASEAN - Semi-finished Copper End-use Market Size by Country (2008-2016) Unit: 000 tons Source: Spire s analysis from primary and secondary sources
Summary Southeast Asia is one of the most significant market for copper with annual copper usage over 1.13 million tonnes in 2012 The ASEAN 5 are the main users and producers for copper products There is sustained growth potential in SEA economy which drives copper usage in the long term
Thank you! For more information please contact victor.zhou@copperalliance.asia