Global Biomass Availability: Assumptions and Conditions Monique Hoogwijk Ecofys the Netherlands BV IEA Bioenergy ExCo58, 4 October 2006
Surface Land-use / primary prod. Harvest Processing End-use 1.5 Gha 1.5 Gha 2 Gha Land for food/feed crops Pasture land Intensive & Extensive Food/feed harvest 2 Food processing 4 Animal production 5 Food consumption 7 4.0 Gha 4.2 Gha Land for forestry/fibre production Other land Forest harvest 3 Primary residues Material production 6 Secondary residues Tertiary residues Material consumption 8 Land for energy crops 1 Energy crop harvest Energy conversion Energy consumption Losses
Land availability: main assumptions Diet Agricultural intensity Population?? Land for food Land for fodder Land for built environment Land for nature Competition Land for energy crops
Exploration of the ranges Present argicultual area High population growth Meatintensive diet Low agricultural intensity High demand for competing options (e.g. bio-materials, sinks). High demand for agricultural land High supply of residues Present agricultual area Low popultion growth Meatextensive diet High agricultural intensity Low demand for competing options (e.g. bio-materials, sinks) Low demand for agricltural land Low supply of residues Barely any potential (0) Very high potential (1100 EJ per year)
Range of biomass energy potential 1400 Source: Berndes et al., 2003; Hoogwijk et al., 2003 Potential of biomass energy (EJ/y) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Range, bottom up 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Scenario approach Material/economic Food trade: maximal Technology development: high Population 2100: 7.1 Billion A1 Food trade: low Technology development: low Population 2100: 15.1 Billion A2 GDP world 2100: 86.2 Billion $ 95 y -1 Global Food trade: high B1 Technology development: high Population: 2100: 7.1 Billion GDP world 2100: 53.9 Billion $ 95 y -1 GDP world 2100: 17.9 Billion $ 95 y -1 Food trade: very low Technology development: low Regional B2 Population: 2100: 10.4 Billion GDP world 2100: 27.7 Billion $ 95 y -1 Social/Environment
Land-use pattern changes 14 A1 14 A2 12 12 Area (Gha) 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year Area (Gha) 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 year Bioresreve Forest Cropland Grassland Restland low-productivity Abandoned
Energy crop productivity distribution Area (Gha) 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 A1 Abandoned Cropland Low-productivity Forest Grassland Restland Area (Gha) 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 A2 Abandoned Cropland Low-productivity Forest Grassland Rest land 0.05 0.05 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Crop productivity (ton ha -1 y -1 ) 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Crop productivity (ton ha -1 y -1 )
A1 2000
A1 2010
A1 2020
A1 2030
A1 2040
A1 2050
A2 2050
Geographical potential Geographical potential (EJ ȳ 1 ) 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 A1 A2 B1 B2 Total primary energy production Total geographical potential 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200-1 Total primary energy consumption (EJ y ) 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 0
Sensitivity analysis 5 4.5 4 3.5 Agricultural area (Gha) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Population B1 B1 using population of A2 B1 using population and GDP of A2 B1 using population, GDP and management factor of A2 B1 using population, GDP, management factor and diet of A2 B1 using population, GDP, management factor, diet and trade of A2 A2 0 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Self-sufficiency; regional interdependence 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 A1 4-6 A2 B1 B2 Canada USA Central-America South-America North-Africa West- Africa East- Africa South- Africa OECD Europe East- Europe Former. USSR Middle East South Asia East Asia South. East Asia Oceania Japan Ratio geograogical potential and energy demand
Conclusions The long term biomass energy potential can be significant, but depends highly on: population dynamics; agricultural intensity; diet consumed. Food trade influences the regional distribution. For high shares of biomass energy, trade is required. Tradeoffs with sustainable forms of agriculture exists.
Thanks M.Hoogwijk@ecofys.nl