Ammonia-based Fertilizer Markets Are Fertilizers Petrochemicals too?
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1 Ammonia-based Fertilizer Markets Are Fertilizers Petrochemicals too? Bala Suresh, Principal Analyst 15 th FORO PEMEX Petroquimica, 2013 Mexico City, Mexico June 5, 2013
2 Agenda What Are Fertilizers? Global Market Nitrogenous Fertilizers Growth Aspects Conclusions
3 Fertilizer Product Chains Mineral Ore Potash Ore Phosphate Rock Sulfur Refinery based products Hydrocarbon Air Air N, P, K Fertilizers
4 Production Processes Nitrogen: Hydrogen Air (N2) Ammonia Nitrogenous Fertilizers Phosphorus: Sulfuric Acid Phosphate Rock Phosphoric Acid Superphosphates Ammonium Phosphates Potassium: Potash Ore Potash Fertilizers
5 Are Fertilizers Petrochemicals Too? What Are Fertilizers? Global Market Population growth Available arable land Need for productivity Fertilizer Types and Applications Nitrogenous Fertilizers Growth Aspects Conclusions
6 More People Require More Food! Global population continues to rise Improved diets worldwide Fertilizer required for crops feeding animals Billions 10.0 Global Population
7 Less Arable Land Per Person Is Available Arable land is actually increasing... MM Hectares 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,
8 Less Arable Land Per Person Is Available Arable land is actually increasing... But not keeping up with population growth Arable Land, Hectares Per Person
9 This Means Crop Yields Must Increase Improvements in seed technology Improvements in crop protection But biggest potential globally is fertilizers
10 How Much Fertilizer Is Consumed Globally? Majority portion is nitrogen Growing faster than other nutrients Growth expected to continue Million Tons N P2O5 P 2 O 5 K2O K 2 O Nutrients 2009/ / /12
11 Are Fertilizers Petrochemicals Too? What Are Fertilizers? Global Market Nitrogenous Fertilizers Growth Aspects Conclusions
12 Major Crops That Use Nitrogen (United States) 2010 N Use for Crops Corn production has doubled in the last three decades Other 39% Corn 46% Recent increases include fuel uses Trend expected to continue Wheat 11% Soybeans 1% Cotton 3%
13 Major Crops That Use Nitrogen Land use for corn planting is increasing Coarse grain trade expected to rise significantly in the next decade Million Metric Tons 1, Major Crops Using N, Production Corn Wheat Soybeans Cottonseed
14 Nitrogen Based Fertilizers Ammonia Direct Applications Ammonium Sulfate Ammonium Nitrate Nitric Acid Ammonium Phosphates Urea Other N Fertilizers Other Chemicals
15 Ammonia Is Key Manufacturing process Production capacity Major producers Price and relationship with natural gas pricing
16 Ammonia Technology Simple chemistry: 3 H2 + N2 Complex manufacturing issues 2 NH3 CO2 Natural Gas Steam Steam Reformer H2/CO H2/CO2 CO2 H2 Shift Reactor Removal Water Removal H2 Recycle H2 Compressor Purge Ammonia Separation Ammonia Synthesis N2 Air Unit Separation Air Ammonia
17 Ammonia Production Cost G&A, Sales 5% Catalysts & Chemicals 1% Depreciation 37% Natural Gas 32% Taxes & Insurance 7% Plant Overhead 4% Utilities 3% Other Direct Costs 11%
18 Global Production Capacity World Capacity, Thousand Metric Tons, N Basis
19 2012 Major Producing Regions China leads CIS and India are also significant Middle East has grown substantially in recent years Southwest Asia 11% CIS (Fmr. USSR) 14% Middle East 9% Western Europe 7% United States 6% Central & South America 6% China 30% Southeast Asia 5% Africa 4% Central & Eastern Canada 3% Oceania 1% Japan 1% Europe 3%
20 Major Producers
21 U.S. Ammonia Production & Net Imports Production decreased when natural gas prices increased Demand satisfied by increased imports Million Metric Tons Percent % % % % % 0.0 0% Production Net imports Net Imports as % of Total
22 Are Fertilizers Petrochemicals Too? What Are Fertilizers? Global Market Nitrogenous Fertilizers Growth Aspects Conclusions
23 Factors Affecting Growth Weather Economic activity Policy decisions Disease Biofuel Production Natural gas price
24 U.S. Corn Is Used For Increasing volumes for fuel Around 80 million acres of land are planted for corn Demand for ethanol production has increased corn acreage
25 U.S. Ammonia Prices Paid By Farmers, Spring 2013 $1,050 $7.81 $1,040 $6.02 $766 $5.32 $812 $5.26 $819 $5.51 $877 $7.03 $666 $4.54 Ammonia Price, U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton Industrial price of natural gas, Dollars Per Cubic Feet
26 U.S. Capacity vs. Natural Gas Price Capacity, Million Metric Tons Natural Gas Price, USD Per Thousand Cubic Feet
27 Impact of Shale Gas U.S. EIA projections for natural gas availability from shale is enormous Near-term reduction in prices Bcf Per Day Shale Tight sands 30 Coalbed Methane 20 Conventional 10 0 Associated Gas
28 Regional Ammonia Prices Dollars Per Metric Ton 700 Fluctuations due to natural gas prices Dip expected in near future USGC FOB NOLA Carribean Caribbean NW Europe NE Asia Black Sea India Arabian Gulf
29 Conclusions Some fertilizers are petrochemicals! Healthy fertilizer growth is expected to continue The U.S. shale gas and energy situation is likely to impact the global fertilizer industry
30 Thank you!
31 Questions and Answers
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