Energy from biomass: the size of the global resource Dr Raphael Slade Biomass Power Generation 2012 1 st October UK Energy Research Centre
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Existing biomass resource assessments have failed to convince the sceptics... Estimates are wildly over optimistic... It ll never happen... Vs. Oh, no, not again...we ve done this already Done to death...
... plenty of fertile ground for disagreement Political ambitions: energy security, climate change, rural development Contentious interactions: food supply & price spikes, water use, biodiversity, land use A major role in energy scenarios: e.g. IEA Blue Map EU RED Raphael.slade@imperial.ac.uk
Understanding sources of contention What did IMPERIAL do? Found out why the range of estimates is so large Disaggregated key assumptions and explored how reasonable they are Identified key uncertainties affecting biomass and food estimates Systematic review: Biomass potential (Contribution to primary energy (EJ)) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Range of primary energy demand forecasts, 2050 Global primary energy supply, 2008 Global biomass consumption, 2008 Range of estimates 6 18 14 20 1 17 22 24 5 15 3 28 10 8 2 9 4 13 23 7 16 25 11 12 21 28 19 27 26 11 2000-2030 2050 2100 Forecast year / study >90 biomass potential studies published over the last 20 yrs Direct input from experts and industry Contrasted biomass potential estimates with expectations for conventional agriculture and food production
Future sources of biomass: energy crops dominate, but residues and forestry have a role 1200 Biomas potential (Contribution to primary energy (EJ)) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Global primary energy consumption 2008 Global biomass consumption 2008 Energy crops Wastes & residues Forestry Biomass source (NB: Categories are not completely mutually exclusive, estimates include unconstrained values)
Methodological niggles, but good agreement on key drivers Key factors Availability of land Productivity of land Availability of residues Underlying drivers Food consumption and diet Global population Potential to increase crop & livestock yields Availability of water Degraded soil Consensus on future change / Economic activity / competition Areas required for nature conservation... But, future trends are very uncertain
The result you get depends on the assumptions you are prepared to accept Global biomass potential (EJ) Future primary energy demand range Global primary energy supply (2008) Global biomass supply (2008) 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 High band Upper -mid Lower -mid Low band Essential pre-conditions Crop yields outpace demand: >2,500Mha land for energy crops (includes >1,300Mha good agricultural land) High or very high input farming, limited, and landless, animal production with dung recovery Low population (<9bn) Vegetarian diet OR extensive deforestation / conversion to managed forestry All residues a (<100EJ constrained use, not included in all studies) Crop yields outpace demand: >1,500Mha land for energy crops (includes >1000Mha good agricultural land) Low population OR vegetarian diet OR extensive deforestation / conversion to managed forestry All residues a (<100EJ constrained use, not included in all studies) Crop yields keep pace with demand: < 500Mha land for energy crops (mostly non-agricultural) Low population OR vegetarian diet OR limited deforestation. All residues a (<100EJ, constrained use, included in most studies) Little or no land for energy crops (<400Mha max ) High meat diet OR low input agriculture Limited expansion of cropland area AND high level of environmental protection Agricultural residues (<30EJ, not included in all studies) a Agricultural residues, forestry residues, wastes (dung, MSW, industrial)
Many uncertainties remain Can crop yields keep pace with demand? o Grounds for optimism but not complacency o Intensification not a silver bullet o Scope for improved collaboration Aral Sea: a victim of irrigation What about water? o Scarcity a major issue for food and energy crops o Many management options, but increasing crop drought tolerance could reduce yields Environmental impacts of energy crops? o May be positive or negative examples from agriculture show us what we need to avoid Oklahoma dust storms 1935
Can conflicting viewpoints be reconciled? Estimates are wildly over optimistic... It ll never happen... Vs. Oh, no, not again...we ve done this already Done to death... Food potentials are extrapolations Biomass potentials are what if scenarios. Reasonable concerns about sustainability of food production not adequately reflected in biomass estimates Energy trends poorly reflected in food forecasts Studies make the best of limited data Good agreement on major drivers No consensus on vocabulary names or meanings Need for empirical evidence, demonstration and experience
Insights for policy and future research ~20% of global primary energy (100EJ - technical potential) is possible with stretching but plausible assumptions There is a choice between sustainable and unsustainable biomass o Sustainable biomass requires investment, infrastructure and effective regulation Policy should focus on practical opportunities o Biomass potentials are uncertain because future food yields are uncertain, and will remain so o No strong basis to dismiss co-production of food and energy out of hand o Increasing food yields is a win-win option provided soil and water resources are conserved Bioenergy is not an all or nothing option we need to learn what works o Where will the first few exajoules come from? How much will it cost? will sustainability governance schemes work?
Thank you for your attention Download the report free of charge from: www.ukerc.ac.uk
A reality check: Replacing all fossil fuels with biomass is not an option, but a major contribution to energy supply is a possibility 1400 1200 Gross energy content (EJ) 1000 800 600 400 2050 energy demand - estimated range 200 Biomass destroyed during harvest 0 Annual global plant growth (terrestrial, above ground) Global primary energy supply 2008 Human use of plants: food, commercial forestry etc. Transport biofuels 2008 (Source: data from Haberl et al. 2007, BP 2010, IPCC 2011)
Technological advances will be critical Extrapolating yield trends may be over simplistic 1600 1400 Hoogwijk 2005: ~0.9%pa increase in cereal yields ( From FAO 2003)......But FAO assumed oil price <$30barrel and declining Biomass potential (Contribution to primary energy (EJ)) 1200 1000 800 600 400 Range of primary energy demand forecasts, 2050 Global primary energy supply, 2008 200 Global biomass consumption, 2008 0 6 18 14 20 1 17 22 24 5 15 3 28 10 8 2 9 4 13 23 7 16 25 11 12 21 28 19 27 26 11 2000-2030 2050 2100 Forecast year / study
Energy crop yield estimates 1400 Global arable area Global pasture area ~15odt.ha -1 Bauen04 Beringer11 1200 Cannell02 de Vries07 Energy crop potential (EJ) 1000 800 600 400 ~10odt.ha -1 ~5odt.ha -1 Field08 Fischer01 Hall93 Johansson93 Hoogwijk05 Hookwijk03 Lysen08 Moreira06 Sims06 200 Smeets07 WEA2000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Land area assumed for energy crops (Gha) WGBU09 Wolf03
Global land area: ~13Gha Country areas (on same scale) Land use in each region: % of regional area 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 (549) (1,089) (590) North South Asia Africa Europe America America Oceania (253) (907) (677) (293) (178) (1,004) (217) (253) (613) (126) (462) (867) (49) (373) (192) China (960Mha) India (328Mha) France (54Mha) 0 (863) (1,138) (730) (780) (780) (233) Germany (35Mha) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Major global regions: % of total area (inset figure: Mha) UK (24Mha) Key: Arable (Total:1.5Gha) Pasture (Total:3.5Gha) Forestry (Total: 4Gha) Other (Total: 4Gha)