Integrating RES in Germany Options & Challenges from a Technical Point of View European Forum on Electricity Pricing Berlin, 28th of May, 2013 1
Integrating RES in Germany Contents 1. RES in Germany Historical Development & Political Target Potential Wind & Solar Power Spatial Distribution & Expansion Scenarios 2. Functional Energy Storages Motivation Definition of Functional Energy Storages Overview of Storage Technologies 3. Legal Restrictions and Outlook Political Framework Future Challenges 22
Integrating RES in Germany Options & Challenges from a Technical Point of View 1. RES in Germany 33
1. RES in Germany Historical Development & Political Target Historical Development of RES in Germany driven by the German Renewable Energy Act, EEG: Target 35,0% 2020 44 Sources: Die Bundesregierung: Der Weg zur Energie der Zukunft - sicher, bezahlbar und umweltfreundlich. Berlin: Die Bundesregierung, 2011; Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen. Berlin: Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (BMU), 2012
1. RES in Germany Historical Development & Political Target Annual predictions of the increase of photovoltaics and wind power capacity published by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety: Photovoltaics Predicted Capacity Wind (Onshore) Predicted Capacity Year Year Increase of capacity strongly exceeds the predictions 55
1. RES in Germany The FfE Region Model Spatial and Temporal Resolution Consistent and comprehensive database of relevant data in spatial and temporal resolution: Photovoltaics Increase of Capacity Regionalisation of loads and capacities 66 Spatial Dimension (GIS) Properties for each node (municipality) Installed capacity, Settlement structure, population, Industry Possible levels of aggregation Administrative districts States 19 Transmission system zones Price Zones/regional electricity prices Temporal Dimension Typical climate conditions on an hourly basis Generation and load profiles on an hourly basis Expansion scenarios for RES
1. RES in Germany Wind Power Potential Identification of areas of exclusion: protected & unavailable areas Identification of suitable areas 7 Populated and Circulation Areas (OSM & CLC) Naturschutzgebiete (Nature Reserves) National Parks Special Protection Areas Special Areas (EU BirdsProtection Directive 2009/147/EC) (EU Habitats Directive 92/43/EEC)
1. RES in Germany Wind Power Potential Full Load Hours & Suitable Areas Potential Full Load Hours Wind Power in 80m above ground < 800 800-1000 1.000-1.200 1.200-1.400 1.400-1.600 1.600-1.800 1.800-2.000 2.000-2.200 > 2.400 88
1. RES in Germany Wind Power The FfE Wind-Scenario-Tool (WiSTl) Example for the modelling of the spatial expansion of wind power with the FfE Wind-Scenario-Tool: 99
1. RES in Germany Photovoltaics Analysis of Historical Development 4 relevant types of photovoltaic power plants can be distinguished: PV-Plants by Type Open Space Industry, Trade&Comm. Agriculture Residential Existing PV-Plants Capacity [MW] Type Open Space Industry, Tr.&Comm. Agriculture Residential Capacity 10
1. RES in Germany Photovoltaics Potential on Buildings in Germany Germany Residential Residential Buildings Garages Industry, Trade & Commerce Office- and Administrative Buildings Commercial Zones Other Buildings Agriculture Livestock Farming Storage Depots Machine Halls Sum 110 GW 104 GW 6 GW 59 GW 15 GW 37 GW 7 GW 31 GW 17 GW 4 GW 10 GW 200 GW 11
1. RES in Germany Photovoltaics Future Development on Buildings Modelling of the future expansion by applying Sigmoid Curves for each municipalty in Germany: 12
1. RES in Germany RES vs. Consumption Spatial Distribution RES Electricity Generation [MWh/km²] 0 0-200 200-400 400-600 600-800 800-1000 1.000-1.200 1.200-1.400 1.400-1.600 1.600-1.800 > 1.800 RES Electricity Consumption [MWh/km²] < 100 100-200 200-400 400-600 600-800 800-1.000 1.000-1.200 1.200-1.400 1.400-1.600 1.600-1.800 > 1.800 Consumption 13 Spatial Discrepancy between Generation and Consumption
1. RES in Germany RES vs. Consumption Spatial Distribution RES Consumption Cross-Border Physical Flows (ENTSO-E) 29th of April, 2013 Spatial Discrepancy between Generation and Consumption Can lead to cross-border Loop Flows 14 entsoe.net
Integrating RES in Germany Options & Challenges from a Technical Point of View 2. Functional Energy Storages 15
2. Functional Energy Storages Feed-In Management Deliberate RES Cut-Offs Sum of Lost El. Generation from RES [GWh] Total Compensatory Costs [million ] Feed-In Management Contradiction Target: High share of RES on total el. generation The main reasons for Feed-In Management in 2011 were overloads in the 110-kV grid and on high/medium voltage transformer stations. But the Feed-In Management measures in the high voltage grid have increased significantly in 2011.. 16 Source: Abschätzung der Bedeutung des Einspeisemanagements nach 11 EEG und 13 Abs. 2 EnWG BWE 2012
2. Functional Energy Storages Overview of Storage Technologies * ** Pumped Storage CHP + Heat Storage + Power2Heat - + Electromobility Power2Gas Further Technologies Flexibilization of Load FfE Region Model Welfare and Market-Analysis 17 Expansion Scenarios
18 2. Functional Energy Storages Definition of Functional Energy Storages
2. Functional Energy Storages Functional Energy Storage exemplified by CHP 19 Leistung/Last Power/Load in in GW GW Storage Power in GW 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1344 1368 1392 1416 1440 1464 1488 Stunde im Jahr Hour hour of the year Year 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 1344 1368 1392 1416 1440 1464 1488 Hour of the Year Negative Residual-Load Residual-Load Renewable Energies CHP Flexibile CHP Renewable + CHP
2. Functional Energy Storages 2.1 Pumped Storage Hydro Power 20 Existing Pumped Storage Hydro Power Stations in Germany 31 Stations Total installed el. Power : 6,4 GW Total Storage Capacity : 37,7 GWh Planned Projects: Planned Pumped Hydro Stations in Germany Name Installed Storage Planned el. Power Capacity Comissioning [MW] [GWh] [YYYY] Atdorf 1.400 13,0 2019 Blautal 60 0,4 n.a. Einöden 200 0,9 1,6 2019 Forbach Ausbau 24 5,2 n.a. Forbach Neubau 200 14,3 n.a. Halde Sundern 15 0,7 n.a. Heimbach 600 81,8 2019 Nethe 390 23,2 2019 Riedl 300 37,3 2018 Rur 640 45,2 2019 Stadtwerke Trier 300 44,6 2017 Waldeck II+ 300 3,7 2016 Sum 4.429 40,6 Pumped Storage Hydro Power Stations in Germany Planned PSHS Geplante PSW Installed el. Power 100 MW 250 MW 1.000 MW Increase of installed power to 10,8 GW and Storage Capacity to 78 GWh
2. Functional Energy Storages Pumped Storage Hydro Power Operating Schedules Pumped Work [MWh] 1.000.000 900.000 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 2002 2003 2004 2004 2006 2007 2008 2008 2010 2011 2012 Year FfE MOS-LWPSW_00013 21
2. Functional Energy Storages Flexible CHP Operation - Power to Heat 22 *In combination with CHP
23 2. Functional Energy Storages Basic Scheme for a Flexible CHP System
2. Functional Energy Storages Operation Modes for Flexible CHP-Systems Electricity- Demand/ -Supply Flexible CHP- System Heating Demand Electricity- Demand/ -Supply Flexible CHP- System Heating Demand high Heating Demand Heating Plant CHP Storage Electr. Heating Heating Plant CHP Heating Plant CHP Storage Electr. Heating Heating Plant CHP Sink Source Not operating Electricity Heat Storage Storage low Electr. Heating Electr. Heating 24 negative Electricity Prices / EEX high
2. Functional Energy Storages Power2Heat - Potential e-boiler capacity max. thermal load (district heating) share SW Flensburg 30 MW 320 MW 9% Germany 2.700 MW 30.000 MW 9% Average secondary control reserve demand in 2011: ~2.000 MW collapse of negative control reserve market? 25
26 2. Functional Energy Storages Power to Gas
2. Functional Energy Storages Power-to-Gas The Concept Large storage&transmission capacities available Long-term storage possible Low efficiency High Investment costs [1] 27 Source: [1] Specht, Michael; Zuberbühler, Ulrich: Power-to-Gas (P2G ): Layout, operation and results of the 25 and 250 kwel research plants. Stuttgart: Zentrum für Sonnenenergie- und Wasserstoff-Forschung (ZSW), 2012
28 2. Functional Energy Storages Electromobility
2. Functional Energy Storages Electromobility Key Questions Key Questions: 29 Where and when are how many vehicles charged? What is the capacity and energy for charging? What is the ratio of parking and charging duration?
30 2. Functional Energy Storages Electromobility Usability Factors Usability Factors @ home @ work Hour of Day parking probability within 15 minutes Hour Hour of of Day parking probability within 15 minutes Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su
2. Functional Energy Storages Electromobility Prognosis and Impact on Residual Load Average storage capacity of traction battery in EVs: 26,5 kwh Scenario: 7 mio EVs in 2030 Number of electric vehicles in million Year Flattening of the residual load only very little benefit from V2G and DSM even for 7 Mio EVs Simplified business approach (pay for capacity not for energy) 31
32 2. Functional Energy Storages Flexibilization of Load
2. Functional Energy Storages Demand Side Management for Industrial Processes Average DSM-Potential for Commerce, Trade and Services 2.420 MW positive 14.275 MW negative (mainly night storage heating) positive = reduction of load negative = increase of load Average DSM Potential for Industry 1.811 MW positive DSM Potential 410 MW negative DSM Potential Source: EWI, 2010 What about temporal availability? 33
Integrating RES in Germany Options & Challenges from a Technical Point of View 3. Legal Restrictions and Outlook 34
3. Legal Restrictions and Outlook Recent discussion of the future importance and profitability of energy storages Update of the German Energy Industry Act (EnWG) in 2010 and 2011 118, sec. 6: For new facilities for the storage of electric energy, that are commissioned after August 4 th, 2011* no grid charges have to be paid for 20 years after commissioning. For existing pumped storage hydro power stations the exemption from grid charges is granted for 10 years, if the following measures are taken after August 4 th, 2011: Increase of the pump or turbine capacity by at least 7,5% or increase of storage capacity by 5% No general exemption from grid charges! 35 *within 15 years
3. Legal Restrictions and Outlook Fluctuating electricity generation from RES in Germany is granted with fixed feed-in tariffs and is guaranteed a priority of feed-in (German Renewable Energy Act, EEG). Functional energy storages can contribute to the temporal and/or spatial decoupling of electricity generation and consumption. The operation of functional energy storages does not follow the purpose of integrating a maximum share of RES itself, but is primarily price driven. Due to the future degression of the feed-in tariffs for RES, the installation of functional energy storages becomes economically more attractive (e.g. battery systems to increase own consumption of solar power). The national and cross-border expansion of grid capacity always has to be considered as an alternative to the implementation of functional energy storages. 36 Functional energy storages can only guarantee substantial grid relief if they are directly controlled by the respective grid operators. Due to the liberalization of the energy markets in Germany this is currently not possible.
Dipl.-Ing. Luis Carr Thank You for Your Attention! +49 (89) 158121-78 LCarr@ffe.de Research Center for Energy Economics (FfE - Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft e.v.) Am Blütenanger 71 80995 Munich, Germany http://www.ffe.de/en 37