Power-to-Gas System analysis study Project team ECN/DNV GL Marcel Weeda Energy Convention 2014, Groningen 18 November 2014 www.ecn.nl
Outline Project overview Definition P2G Methodology Results & conclusions Recommendations
Project overview
Project overview Some facts Project under TKI gas (2012) Duration: Nov 2012 Feb 2014 Total budget: 519k Project partners Project deliverables are available on ECN and DNV GL websites ECN & DNV GL Supported by a wide range of affiliated parties Multi-client set-up Steering group (SG) with client representation SG provides guidance, knowledge and data Extracting lessons
Project overview Focus Question: What could be the role for P2G in the future Dutch energy system? What is the (future) business case for P2G? What are drivers and bottlenecks for P2G? Goal: Provide valuable insights for medium to long term strategic decision-making by private and public actors in the energy system
Definition of P2G
Power-to-gas (P2G) and hydrogen: relation and importance? Use of electricity for production of a gaseous energy carrier: Usually production SNG is meant: CO 2 + 4 H 2 CH 4 + 2 H 2 O (Sabatier process)... but first step is always hydrogen: H 2 O + e - 2H 2 +O 2 (electrolysis) Interest for P2G as a result of increasing production of renewable electricity for which there is no direct demand (surplus), with increasing deployment of wind and solar There is a relation with electricity storage, but it is mainly about integration of energy from intermittent renewable sources into the energy system: Surplus at one moment, but shortage (of renewable electricity) at another moment There is no surplus of (carbon-free) renewable energy carriers for a long time
Electricity production: CCGT P2G, the broad definition Electricity grid H 2 as chemical feedstock for industry (Natural) Gas grid Energy Storage 2012, Luxembourg, 29 Feb 1 March 2012
Electricity production: CCGT P2G, the broad definition The first step is always electrolysis Electricity grid Electrolysis water: Power-to-Gas (P2G) H 2 as chemical feedstock for industry HYDROGEN storage, transport and distribution (Natural) Gas grid Energy Storage 2012, Luxembourg, 29 Feb 1 March 2012
Electricity production: CCGT P2G, the broad definition Full overview of options Electricity grid H 2 for high temperature heat in industry Electrolysis water: Power-to-Gas (P2G) Fuel Cell systems, Engines, CCGT: Re-electrification H 2 as chemical feedstock for industry Methanisation: 2H 2 + C = CH 4 Admixing of H 2 : Greening of gas HYDROGEN storage, transport and distribution H 2 as fuel for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles H 2 via (local) grid(s) for heat in houses and buildings (Natural) Gas grid Energy Storage 2012, Luxembourg, 29 Feb 1 March 2012
Methodology
Methodology P2G business case determinants Price of / demand for: Flexibility How large is the intermittency problem? CO 2 -emission reductions CO 2 -price/valueing emissions reductions? Fuels Fuel prices? Costs of P2G (Investments, O&M, electricity price) Availability / price of competing / consuming options Other flexibility options Other low-carbon options End-use applications
Methodology Overview Integral energy systems analysis OPERA-model; national approach Finding lowest cost energy system configuration(s) given: System requirements, Emissions constraints Targets for renewables Other peculiarities of policies Range of storylines used to explore cornerstones Simulations using supply and demand profiles on hourly basis 280+ technologies Supply conversion transport storage demand Case study analyses Regional approach Explore specific regional implementation of P2G Taking into account local, contextual factors such e-balance, H 2 demand, infrastructure configuration (1) North-Netherlands, (2) Rotterdam, (3) Stedendriehoek
Results & conclusions
Results P2G output sheets Size of integration challenge intermittent renewables: Wind turbines and PV: capacity, production Flexibility from various sources: Curtailment of intermittent renewables Electricity storage: large and small scale Electrolysis: capacity, operating hours, hydrogen production Role of P2G: Hydrogen: demand, application by sector, including SNG Emissions reduction effort: Marginal CO 2 -reduction costs
Cost of hydrogen production and allowable cost of hydrogen 100 /ton CO 2 200 /ton CO 2 200 /ton CO2 300 /ton CO 2 Outlook business cases hydrogen from electrolysis Favorable for use as transport fuel, Possible for use as feedstock in the industry Poor for greening of gas, electricity production, and SNG (methanation) production
Conclusion #1 Deep CO2 emission reductions main driver P2G
Conclusion #1 Deep CO2 emission reductions main driver P2G
Conclusion #1 Deep CO2 emission reductions main driver P2G Current electricity demand: 120 TWh Start production surplus @ current level of demand Current production wind and solar: 6 TWh
Conclusion #1 Deep CO2 emission reductions main driver P2G
Conclusion #2 Need for flexibility insufficient driver for P2G Mix of options is (more) cost-efficient Temporary curtailment Cross-border exchange of electricity More, and more flexible electricity demand (i.e. demand side response) Flexible electrification of energy demand (e.g. hybrid heating systems) Dispatchable electricity generation units Electricity storage (large and small scale) Flexible operation of electrolysis, and hydrogen applications Use of these options implies increased system integration (e.g. P2Heat) and adoption of hybrid solutions (e.g. EV with FC range extender, hybrid heat pumps)
Illustration Options contributing to system flexibility
Curtailments ( 9 TWh / yr) Illustration Options contributing to system flexibility
P2G ( 7 TWh / yr) Illustration Options contributing to system flexibility
Storage ( 12 TWh / yr) Illustration Options contributing to system flexibility
Flexible electricity demand Illustration Options contributing to system flexibility
Illustration Options contributing to system flexibility Back up capacity gas
Illustration Options contributing to system flexibility Interconnection capacity ( 2 TWh / yr)
Increased nuclear flex Illustration Options contributing to system flexibility
Conclusions The need for flexibility alone, in particular the need to absorb surplus, is an insufficient driver for P2G Deep CO 2 emission reductions are the main driver for P2G Furthermore: P2G mainly concerns hydrogen, to a lesser extent synthetic methane P2G is not cost-effective from a societal perspective in the short term, but a positive private business case may still prove feasible under specific circumstances Uncertainties: Path dependency; availability of CCS, biomass and nuclear; breakthroughs electrolysis; organize-ability of alternatives for P2G; availability of natural gas as transition fuel,
Recommendations
Recommendations A Dutch P2G road map should prepare and organise the role of P2G in the long term Follow-up research required with regard to the role and impact of flexibility and low carbon options in the mix of energy technologies An international perspective is required in analyzing the Dutch energy system and P2G developments Getting the regulatory framework right is a necessary condition for a successful energy transition at the lowest possible social cost
Thank you for your attention Power-to-Gas Systems Analysis was supported by: The research leading to these results has received funding from the Dutch Top Sector Knowledge and Innovation (TKI) Programme. Project deliverables will become available at: www.ecn.nl For more information contact Jeroen de Joode (ECN) T +31 88 515 82 50 dejoode@ecn.nl Lukas Grond (DNV GL) T +31 50 700 98 93 Lukas.Grond@dnvgl.com