Assessment of water quality for European water bodies Bouraoui F., Grizzetti B., Malago A., Vigiak O., Pastori M., A. Udias, Karabulut A., Aloe A., Bidoglio G. Water Resources Unit European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy CERTH-JRCTechnical Thessaloniki, Greece 21 October 2014
Water Resources Unit Water and chemicals The JRC assesses and monitors the impact of pollutants and chemicals in aquatic ecosystems at regional and pan-european levels. To facilitate this, the JRC developed the Environmental Quality Standards (EQS) that set limits on allowable concentrations of aquatic pollutants. Ecological water quality In the early nineties, the increasing contamination levels of freshwaters led the European Commission to adopt a series of directives to reduce water pollution. The general objective of these directives is to achieve good status for all surface waters by 2015. Preserving ecosystems The JRC supports EU nature and water policies by mapping ecosystem services, developing robust modelling approaches to simulate future ecosystem scenarios, and assessing the costs and benefits of conservation actions Water Quantity and Efficiency It has developed an integrated modelling framework that links land-use, hydrological and resource-efficiency models in order to evaluate different scenarios and policy options in terms of efficiency and cost-effectiveness
Danube Water Nexus Unit
Multi-criteria hydro-economic optimisation of water resources in Europe Fertilizer optimization: SWAT model lat 3000000 2900000 2800000 2700000 2600000 4200000 4400000 4600000 4800000 long 3000000 Yield reg reg 16 12 8 4 0 NO3 Percolation Upper Danube region (753 catchments) Efficient Strategies Yield (Average) 2,0 lat 2900000 2800000 2700000 2600000 4200000 4400000 4600000 4800000 long 400 300 200 100 0 lat 3000000 2900000 2800000 reg Yield 16 12 8 2700000 4 2600000 0 3000000 4200000 4400000 4600000 4800000 long NO3 Percolation reg 2900000 400 300 lat 2800000 200 2700000 100 2600000 0 1,5 4200000 4400000 4600000 4800000 long 0 50 Nitrates Percolation (Average)
Environmental Directives The Nitrates Directive (1991), to control nitrate pollution from agricultural activities (diffuse sources) (Directive 91/676/EEC) The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (1991), to reduce pollution from waste water treatment plants (point sources) (Directive 91/271/EEC) The Water Framework Directive (2000), with the aim of achieving good ecological and chemical status for all water bodies by 2015 by implementing Programmes of Measures included in River Basin Management Plans. (Directive 2000/60/EC) Policies good and effective? What about future scenarios?
Nitrogen surplus 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Bouraoui and Grizzetti, 2011. Science of the Total Environment
Nitrogen in rivers Annual nitrate concentrations (in mgn/l) in surface water at the mouth of some major European rivers (source OECD, 2008) NO 3 concentrations in European rivers, lakes and coastal waters are high in many regions Groundwater NO 3 concentrations have remained stable and high in some regions Lag time of groundwater response to changes in fertiliser application Grizzetti et al., 2011. in The European Nitrogen Assessment Bouraoui and Grizzetti, 2011. Science of the Total Environment
Activities of the Water Resources Unit on nutrients in European waters identifying hot spots, spatial trends and general pathways of nutrients (and pollutants) at the European scale estimating the contribution of sources (diffuse/punctual) to inland and coastal waters evaluating the impacts of management strategies on water quality and the time needed to see improvement in water quality modeling and data analysis
nutrient input reduction Modelling nutrient loads and fate Modelling tools: GREEN-HYDRO model statistical approach EPIC model (1-D) physically-based approach SWAT model (3-D) physically-based approach Panoply of mitigation measures spatial and temporal structural and non-structural nutrient targeting EXPORT-COEF SWAT HBV-N/HYPE INCA STICS-MODCOU EPIC MONERIS GREEN MITERRA empirical conceptual physically-based Bouraoui and Grizzetti, 2014. Science of the Total Environment Process representation
1. Nitrogen pressures 2. Nitrogen fate in river basins 3. Analysis of scenarios inputs
Mineral Nitrogen Application 1985 1995 1990 2000
Manure Nitrogen Application 1985 1995 1990 2000
Nitrogen & Phosphorus Point Source Emissions 1985 199019952000 2005 Nitrogen 1985 1990 19952000 2005 Phosphorus
1. Nitrogen pressures 2. Nitrogen fate in river basins 3. Analysis of scenarios inputs Budget Retention outputs
Diffuse sources (Dsrc): Mineral fertilizers Animal manure Atmospheric deposition Scattered dwelling Model GREEN R land (Diffuse losses): Crop uptake Soil storage Atmospheric losses R riv (in-stream losses): plant growth Atmospheric losses Nutrient settling Point sources (Psrc): WW treatment plants Industrial loads Paved areas Conceptual statistical regression model Sub-catchments ~170 km2 Annual nitrogen load Application at the European scale
1985 1985 1986 1986 1987 1987 1988 1988 1989 1989 1990 1990 1991 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 1995 1995 1996 1996 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total N Load (1000 tonn) Total Load (1000 tonn) Water Flow (1000 m3/s) Total P Load (1000 tonp) Water Flow (1000 m3/s) Total P Load (1000 tonp) Water Flow (1000 m3/s) Water Flow (1000 m3/s) 1200 6000 1000 5000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 0 0 Nutrient export to European seas: source apportionment statistical model Nitrogen Nitrogen Nitrogen Load Load - Mediterranean - European Seas 12 60 35090 50 30080 10 70 250 8 40 60 50% 200 50 30 diffuse 6 sources 15040 4 20 100 30 % per river basin 20 2 10 50 10 0 0 0 0 27% Phosphorous Phosphorus Load - Mediterranean European Seas Sea 60 50 10 27% 40 8 67% 30 20 10 0 12 6 4 2 0 Other Point sources Agriculture Water Flow Other Point sources Agriculture Water Flow Other Other Point Point sources sources Agriculture Agriculture Water Water Flow Flow Grizzetti et al. 2012. Global Change Biology
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total P concentration mg/l Retrospective analysis: (1985 2005) 0.50 UWW Directive 91/271/EEC 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Atlantic Sea Mediterranean Sea North Sea Baltic Sea Black Sea All Seas
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total N concentration mg/l Retrospective analysis: (1985 2005) 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 Nitrates Directive Persistence of N contamination under a overall decrease of N- surplus in EU. Atlantic Sea Mostly Mediterranean explained Sea by the delay response of North Sea groundwater. Baltic Sea Black Sea All Seas 0.00
1. Nitrogen pressures 2. Nitrogen fate in river basins 3. Analysis of scenarios Scenario Budget Retention
Total N Load (100 tonn) Total P Load (100 tonp) Scenario analysis: source apportionment statistical model 1500 Nitrogen Load - Mediterranean Sea 100 Phosphorus Load - Mediterranean Sea 1250 75 1000 750 50 500 250 25 0 PAST REF BAU UWD UWD- PFREE Other Point sources Agriculture WHO WCRF MANU 0 PAST REF BAU UWD UWD- PFREE WHO WCRF MANU Bouraoui et al. (submitted)
Scenario analysis: Physically based model We can test sustainable and efficient management options to reduce nutrient loss to water, evaluate the impact of growing biofuel crops on water quality Baseline scenario Scenario efficient fertilisation
Thank you for your attention! Faycal.bouraoui@jrc.ec.europa.eu http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu