Achieving SDGs: Key Priorities and Implementation Challenges for South Asia and Sri Lanka Nagesh Kumar delivered at the Institute of Policy Studies Colombo, 2 June 2016
Criticality of SDGs for South Asia The Agenda 2030 on Sustainable Development, adopted at the United Nations Summit in September 2015, is a global compact comprising 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets, seeking to eliminate poverty and hunger and provide a life of dignity to all The SDGs are especially relevant for eight countries of South Asia which, despite their economic dynamism and remarkable MDG achievements, account for 40% of the world s poor Suffer from a number of development and infrastructure gaps, and low levels of human development Given South Asia s weight in the world population and poverty, the world cannot achieve SDGs with South Asia
Despite remarkable progress MDGs remain an unfinished agenda for South Asia
Sustainable Development Goals the unfinished MDG agenda The first 7 goals represent the unfinished agenda of MDGs 1. End poverty 2. End hunger 3. Health for all 4. Quality education for all 5. Gender equality and women s empowerment 6. Drinking water and sanitation for all 7. Affordable and sustainable modern energy for all 4
Sustainable Development Goals Some cross-cutting issues and drivers 8. Sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, decent jobs for all 9. Resilient infrastructure and inclusive and sustainable industrialization and innovation 10.Reduce inequality within and among countries 16. Peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development 5
Sustainable Development Goals Some aspects of environmental sustainability 11. Sustainable and resilient cities and habitats 12. Sustainable consumption and production 13. Address climate change and its impacts 14. Sustainable use of oceans, seas and marine resources 15. Sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems and management of forests and biodiversity 6
Sustainable Development Goals A renewed global partnership for development 17. Means of Implementation and revitalize global partnership for sustainable development Finance Technology Capacity-building Trade Systemic Issues Data, monitoring and accountability
Towards a policy agenda for SDG achievement in South Asia Interrelationships between many goals and targets Positive spillovers of integrating economic, social and environmental pillars Identify key policy priorities for South Asia that will help maximize the interrelationships and positive spillovers
Proportional growth in employment for each 1 per cent annual growth in GDP Annual GDP growth rate (%) a. Sustained, broad-based and job-creating rapid economic growth 11 Fastest growing subregion Growth not creating adequate jobs Employment elasticity of growth has been falling 80% of the workforce trapped in informal jobs without any social protection 9 7 5 3 1-1 -3-5 -7 East and North-East Asia South Asia World North and Central Asia South-East Asia Informal employment (% of employment) 0.9 0.8 South Asia employment-gdp growth trends, (Employment growth elasticity, 5-year moving average, 1994-2010) Maldives Sri Lanka 29 44 71 56 0.7 India 14 86 0.6 Bangladesh 13 87 0.5 Bhutan 12 88 0.4 0.3 Pakistan 11 89 0.2 Afghanistan 8 92 0.1 Nepal 5 95 0.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 India SAARC-IND SAARC 0 20 40 60 80 100 Formal employment Informal employment
Change due to industry concentration (population, millions) through industry-oriented structural transformation Structural transformation in South Asia moved from agriculture to industry bypassing the industry Agriculture still sustains nearly half of the workforce Share of manufacturing in GDP in South Asia much lower in South Asia compared to East Asian countries ESCAP-SANEM model simulations suggest that an industry-oriented growth will lift 25 million more people out of poverty 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0-30.0 19.2 12.8 3.0 2.7 0.4 0.3-3.3-2.7-0.6-0.1-18.0-24.7 South Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh Nepal Sri Lanka Poverty Employment
Adult literacy rate Maternal mortality ratio, 2013 Rank Score b. Closing gaps in infrastructure by providing essential Wide infrastructure gaps in South Asia Infrastructure availability affects achievement of other SDGs Access to infrastructure also source of inequality between rural and urban Important multiplier effects of infrastructure investment Huge requirement of resources to close the infrastructure gaps services to all 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Relationship between electricity access and educational attainment 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 AFG 0 Global Competitiveness Index 2015/16 : Infrastructure - Scores and rankings of selected ESCAP countries y = 0.4746x + 47.185 R² = 0.5595 IND BGD NPL BTN LKA PAK 0 50 100 Access to electricity (% of population), 2012 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Relationship between access to roads and Score maternal health Rank BGD LKA AFG BTN IND NPL PAK 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 y = -1.2436x + 152.18 R² = 0.2308 MDV 0 20 40 60 80 100 Paved roads (% of roads), 2012
c. Harnessing demographic dividend through universal access to education and health Under 5 mortality rates, 2012 Health and education SDGs are critical for South Asia to harness the demographic dividend from its youth bulge Although MDG targets for primary enrolment and completion met, quality remains an issue Wide gender gap in education at higher levels Nexus between education and health Low public expenditure (2-4% of GDP) against the recommended 6% on education South Asia needs to move towards universal health coverage 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Relationship between female education and child health PAK IND NPL BGD y = -45.78ln(x) + 120.38 R² = 0.66 20 MDV LKA 0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Mean years of schooling, females, 2002-2012
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) d. Social protection and financial inclusion for reducing inequalities, poverty and other deprivations Rising inequalities in South Asia; inequality adjusted per capita incomes lower Low levels of financial inclusion and poor social security coverage related with prevalence of poverty in South Asia Extending financial inclusion and social protection coverage critical for SDG achievement South Asia has important models that can be replicated including Benazir Income Support Programme in Pakistan, MGNREGA in India, Samruddhi programme in Sir Lanka, and conditional cash transfers in Bangladesh 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Relationship between financial inclusion and poverty PAK BGD NPL BTN IND y = -0.52x + 40.01 R² = 0.34 LKA 0 20 40 60 80 100 Account at a financial institution (% age 15+) Japan Turkey World Average* China Sri Lanka Bhutan India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal 10.3 3.9 3.7 3.4 Bangladesh 2.5 Social security coverage (% of employment) 24.1 14 41.3 33.5 58.6 95.4 89.7 96.1 96.3 96.6 97.5 75.9 86 58.7 66.5 41.4 4.6 0 20 40 60 80 Employment with social security 100 120 Employment without social security
Change due to doubling agricultural productivity (population, millions) e. Addressing food security and hunger with agricultural productivity improvements through sustainable agriculture 15.00 12.85 10.00 A new green revolution based sustainable agriculture doubling the agricultural productivity by 2030 will not only enhance food security but will also lead to creation of 13 million additional jobs and will pull 16 million additional people out of poverty (16.13) 5.00 - (5.00) (10.00) (15.00) (9.42) 6.68 (2.52) 2.54 1.85 1.43 (2.04) (2.00) (0.15) 0.34 (20.00) Poverty Employment
in per cent in $ trillion f. Promoting gender equality and women s empowerment through entrepreneurship Although MDG goal on gender equality in primary and secondary education achieved, South Asia lags behind in economic and political empowerment of women Low female workforce participation rate Opportunity cost gender inequality very high ranging between $800 billion to $3.5 trillion additional GDP by 2025 in South Asia 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 64 62 61 57 48 48 44 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Promoting women s entrepreneurship through gender specific ecosystem and credit facilities for women entrepreneurs Incremental 2025 GDP (in %): Full potential scenario Incremental 2025 GDP (in %): Best-in-region scenario Gender parity (in %) Incremental 2025 GDP (2014 $ trillion): Best-in- region scenario Incremental 2025 (in GDP 2014 $ trillion): Full potential scenario
g. Enhancing the environmental sustainability through low-carbon climate-resilient pathways to development Urban population share (%) Growing vulnerability to climate change and disasters 70 60 50 South Asia urbanization, 2015 and 2050 Addressing the challenges through enhancing energy efficiency and mix 40 30 20 10 Sustainable urbanization 0 Sustainable production, consumption and waste recycling 2015 2050
East and North-East China Republic of Korea South East Asia Malaysia Singapore Thailand South Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka per cent of GDP Accessing means of implementation for finance Huge resource requirements for achieving SDGs Domestic resource mobilization Tax potential, expanding the tax base, efficiency of tax collection etc. Development and deepening of capital markets ODA: meeting the elusive 0.7% target Development of regional financial architecture New multilateral development banks will increase options for the subregion Evolving a development-friendly global economic governance 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2005 2013
percent of total Technology facilitation for SDGs Access to technology a major concern for developing countries for implementing SDGs in the context of high concentration of technology generation activity The pattern of concentration has changed only slightly over the past three decades Access to environmentally sensitive technologies will be critical for implementing SDGs in South Asia 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Patents taken at USPTO Geography of Innovation 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2013 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 R & D Expenditure (as percent of total) 1995 2005 2012 18 Nagesh Kumar
Technology Facilitation for SDGs For easy access to technologies by developing countries Moratorium on further strengthening of IPRs Extending public health waver to ESTs Granting flexibility to developing countries in implementing TRIPs Differential pricing for technology licensing Strengthening TRIPs provisions (art 66.2) for transfer of technology including environmental technologies for developing and least developed countries Enhancing indigenous innovations Harnessing frugal engineering capabilities of South Asia for developing low-carbon affordable products and processes Pooling of resources for joint solutions for shared challenges 19
Regional Cooperation for SDGs Much potential of regional cooperation and coordination in implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda Sharing development experiences building up productive capacities through a coordinated industrial development strategy, strengthened regional connectivity and regional value chains strengthening their collective energy and food security, and enhance resilience to natural disasters Pooling resources for development of low-carbon pathways SAARC leaders have called for regional cooperation for contexualization of SDGs and coordination in implementation UNESCAP stands ready to support and assist SAARC SDG process promote regional cooperation and integration in South Asia
Concluding remarks The 2030 Agenda a unique opportunity to provide a life of dignity to all, within a generation for South Asia South Asia s turn to lead the global achievements Accelerate achievements through exploitation of inter-linkages Seven key policy priorities may help accelerate progress including industry-oriented job creating economic growth, closing gaps in basic infrastructure, providing universal education and health, social protection, women entrepreneurship, sustainable agriculture and low carbon growth paths Exploit the potential of domestic resource mobilization Stronger global partnership for finance, technology and market access Critical role of regional cooperation and integration
Thank you www.unescap.org 22