Conference on prevention and insurance of natural catastrophes Brussels, 18 October 2011 Impacts of natural hazards in the EU André Jol (Head of group vulnerability and adaptation)
Relevant EU policies and other international actions Disaster risk prevention (Commission Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, 2010) Solidarity fund (response to major disasters) Regional policies (EU funds) Floods Directive (MS preliminary flood risk assessment by 2011, final risk maps by 2013, management plans by 2015) and Water Framework Directive (first river basin management plans 2009/2010). Six year synchronised cycles for both. Climate change adaptation (Mainstreaming in EU policies and EU strategy by 2013, Clearinghouse on adaptation by early 2012) Nature protection and biodiversity policies (2020 biodiversity targets; Communication on Green Infrastructure 2011) GMES services (emergency response) UN-ISDR (2011 report on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in Europe) IPCC (Special Report on Managing Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation due end of 2011)
SOER 2010 (Nov 2010): thematic assessments on adapting to climate change, freshwater quality, water resources Thematic assessments Understanding climate change Mitigating climate change Adapting to climate change Biodiversity Land use Soil Marine and coastal environment Consumption and environment Material resources and waste Water resources: quantity & flows Freshwater quality Air pollution Urban environment Assessment of global megatrends Social megatrends Technological megatrends Economic megatrends Environmental megatrends Political megatrends Country assessments Country profiles National and regional stories Common environmental themes Climate change mitigation Land use Nature protection & biodiversity Waste Freshwater Air pollution Each EEA member country (32) and EEA cooperating country (6) assessed all six environmental themes above.
Impacts of Europe s changing climate (EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008) update in 2012 Atmosphere and climate Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice) Marine biodiversity and ecosystems Water quantity Freshwater quality and biodiversity Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity Soil Agriculture and forestry Human health Vulnerability and economic aspects (sectors)
Europe s key past and projected impacts and risks (SOER2010) Main biogeographic regions of Europe (EEA member countries)
Climate change: Changes in precipitation Precipitation is projected to increase in northern Europe, especially in winter Decreases are projected in southern Europe especially in summer Uncertainties remain in the magnitude and spatial details of the changes Seasonal changes (bias corrected) of total precipitation between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990. Ensemble 12 climate models (% reduction/increase) Source: JRC, 2011
Projected changes in river flow and droughts Annual river flow is projected to decrease in southern Europe and increase in northern Europe Summer river flow will decrease in most of Europe and low river flow will occur earlier and longer In southern Europe precipitation will decrease and droughts will increase in frequency and intensity Rhône Danube Projected change in daily average river flow between 2071-2100 (green line) and 1961-1990 (orange line) Indalselven Guadiana Source: JRC, 2008
Impacts of disasters 1998-2009 (EEA tech report Jan 2011) Scope: EEA32 countries (where feasible) Hazards covered: Hydrometeorological (storms, extreme temperature events, forest fires, water scarcity/droughts, floods) geophysical (snow avalanches, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes) technological (oil spills, industrial accidents, toxic spills from mining) data from EM-DAT (CRED), NatCatSERVICE (MunichRe), EFFIS (JRC) and MARS (JRC) Maps, trends, management options, data gaps and information needs
Different data sources on natural hazards Global databases: Harmonised, but some differences remain (e.g. threshold levels, specific methodologies for data recording) EM-DAT/CRED (University Louvain, Belgium) NatCatSERVICE (MunichRe, Germany) During the past decades both databases have improved comprehensiveness in reporting, some caution regarding analysis of trends European databases: Forest fires: JRC European Forest Fires Information System (Ispra, Italy) Technological accidents: European Maritime Safety Agency (Lisboa, Portugal) for oil spills, JRC 'Major Accident Reporting System' (Ispra, Italy) for industrial accidents in the EU Many national databases Sources: www.emdat.be; www.munichre.com/geo; www.emsa.europa.eu; http://emars.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Impacts of natural hazards 1980-2009 Source: Munich Re NatCatservice (2010) (in EEA, 2011)
Trends in number of natural hazards 1980-2009 The number of disasters increased, mainly regarding meteorological and hydrological events Source: Munich Re NatCatservice (2010) (in EEA, 2011)
Trends in losses from weather-related (hydrometeorological) events 1980-2009 Annual losses from meteorological and hydrological events roughly doubled, mainly due to socio-economic factors Source: Munich Re NatCatservice (2010) (in EEA, 2011)
Natural and technological hazards 1998-2009 Events with largest overall losses: floods in Central Europe (2002), Italy, France and the Swiss Alps (2000), UK (2007); earthquakes in Izmit (Turkey, 1999) and L'Aquila (Italy); winter storms over Central Europe (1999 and 2007) Events with the highest human losses: heat wave of 2003 (western and southern Europe) Izmit (Turkey) earthquake of 1999 Largest impacts on ecosystems are from technological hazards: oil spills of tankers Erika (1999) and Prestige (2002) toxic waste spills in Aznacollar, Spain (1999) and Baia Mare, Romania (2000) and Ajka, Hungary (October 2010, failure of dam of reservoir with alkaline sludge) Source: CRED/EM-DAT; EMSA; JRC-MARS (in EEA, 2011)
Distribution of fatalities and economic losses 1998-2009 Source: ETC-LUSI, based on EM-DAT (2010) (in EEA, 2011)
Storms Storms: costliest natural hazard; rank fourth on number of fatalities Most significant events: Lothar and Martin in Dec 1999 and Kyrill in Jan 2007. Storm-related losses increased, driven by increases in population and assets in exposed areas Data improvements possible on economic losses forestry sector and damages to forest ecosystems Source: ETC-LUSI based on EMDAT, 2010 and Fink et.al., 2009 (in EEA, 2011)
Extreme temperature events More than 70000 excess deaths in summer 2003 and 3000 in the summers of 2006+2007 Cold spells: 1900 fatalities from 1998-2009 Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves, and mortality could increase by 1 4 % for every 1 C (above a location-specific temperature threshold) Data improvement possible on actual and projected health effects on different population groups Source: KNMI, 2011 (EEA core indicator on temperature, 2011)
Forest fires About 70 000 fires per year burning more than 0.5 million ha of forests Large fire episodes: Portugal (2003, 2005), Spain (2006) and Greece (2007) No clear trend in areas burnt but increases in impacts (fatalities, damages) Well established EU data, some improvement possible Source: JRC 2010 (in EEA, 2011)
Water scarcity and drought (WS&D) Large areas of Europe are affected by WSD and conflicts between human requirements and ecological needs may increase In many locations, water demand often exceeds availability Global databases do not cover WSD events well; damage costs of drought in 2003 about 8.7 billion euro Reservoir, Sicily Reservoir, Cyprus River Elbe, Dresden Spring 2007 Source: ETC/LUSI, adapted from Tallaksen L. 2007 (in EEA, 2011)
Floods Major floods : Elbe Basin (2002), Alps (2000, 2005, 2007), England (2007), Romania (2005, 2008), Turkey (2006, 2009), Central Europe, Poland (2010) Increases in economic damage, not in number of fatalities due to early warning/prevention Data improvements possible in global database; EU reporting on floods from 2011 will help (including on past flood events at least floods from 2011 onwards) Source: EEA, SOER2010
Normalised flood losses in Europe Economic losses increased, due to increases in human activity and economic assets in hazard-prone areas From normalised historic data on flood losses effects of ongoing climate change cannot be proven Since the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are projected to increase as well as exposure in hazard-prone areas, losses will increase (unless measures are taken e.g. within the Floods Directive) Source: JRC, Barredo, 2009 (in EEA, 2011)
Avalanches Avalanches with high number of fatalities in secure areas (traffic, residential): winter of 1998/1999 Since then high numbers of fatalities occur mainly due to snow sport (Switzerland, 2007; France, 2008, Turkey, 2009) Outside Alpine countries data sources are incomplete and for the Alpine region EMDAT underestimates the number of fatalities (due to its thresholds) compared to ICAR (international commission for alpine rescue) Source: SLF, 2010 based on ICAR, 2010 (in EEA, 2011)
Landslides About 70 major landslides caused 312 fatalities and damaged much infrastructure Largest events: debris flows in Sarno (Italy, 1998) and mudslides in Messina (Italy, 2009) EM-DAT underestimates the overall impact of landslides (due to its thresholds). For economic losses and impact on ecosystems, there is a lack of information. Major land slide events 1998-2009 Source: ISPRA, 2010 (in EEA, 2011)
Event with highest number of human fatalities: Izmit (Turkey) in 1999 (M = 7.6) Since 2003: four M > 6 earthquakes (Greece, Turkey, Italy) and eight M > 5 earthquakes Events high damage and high numbers of fatalities: Diyarbakir (Turkey) in 2003 and L'Aquila (Italy) in 2009. Earthquakes are well documented in global disaster databases. Improvements are possible on economic damages and impacts on ecoystems. Earthquakes Source: ETC-LUSI, based on EM-DAT (2010) (in EEA, 2011)
Volcanic eruptions From 1998 2009, there were no destructive explosive volcanic eruptions in Europe In 2010, the eruption in Iceland of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano had major impacts e.g. on air traffic Volcanic eruptions are well documented in global disaster databases. Improvements were needed e.g. on indirect effects like critical dust concentration levels for air traffic. Source: ETC-LUSI, based on EM-DAT (2010) (in EEA, 2011)
Key messages on disasters Number and impacts of disasters increased due to increase of human activities and economic assets in hazard-prone areas, better reporting, possibly climate change (share expected to increase in future) Extreme temperature events caused the highest number of human fatalities and technological accidents the most severe ecosystem impacts Flooding and storms were the most costly hazards Integrated Risk Management (IRM) is needed (prevention, preparedness, response and recovery) More comprehensive EU information systems would significantly improve the analysis and assessment of the impacts
EU Climate Change Adaptation Clearinghouse Climate change observations and scenarios GMES - Essential climate variables Link with GFCS + regional / national centers Land-use, water, socio-economic observations, statistics and scenarios Impacts & Vulnerability Integration information on climate, land-use, water, ecosystems, socio-economic variables Exposure to impacts, sensitivity and adaptive capacity Detailed geographical and sectoral perspective Vulnerability indicators, policyoriented Adaptation plans and strategies Information on existing adaptation strategies, key institutions and stakeholders Joint activities between MS and third countries (research, adaptation measures) Practical tools for the development of adaptation policy Adaptation measures, actions Extended database of measures Typology Assessment of environmental, social, economic impacts Identifying noregret measures DG CLIMA manages, EEA+JRC support Countries and others to test and comment on prototypes Contractor up to March 2012, EEA maintains afterwards
GMES Initial operations Emergency response service being established Discussions on a climate change service (Helsinki, June 2011) EEA: GMES in situ coordination and initial land monitoring service (with JRC) Atmosphere monitoring Land monitoring Ocean monitoring Emergency response Source: http://www.gmes.info/
Challenges in information gaps and data needs Use of global databases for EU assessments requires improvements e.g. on comprehensiveness (depending on the threshold) and comparability across countries and consistency over time (depending on the methodology) Well established EU databases exist for specific hazards (e.g. forest fires), but also these can be further improved Reporting on floods starting in 2011 is expected to improve EU data on flood impacts (electronic reporting of flood events at least from 2011 onwards) Improved systematic evaluation of impacts on human health, economy, infrastructure and ecosystems is needed at local and national level GMES may improve data availability and access in Europe (Emergency Response initial operation and other services) Comparability in natural hazard risk and climate change vulnerability assessments can be improved (e.g. by use of 2010 Commission Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines and learning from the IPCC report due in 2011)