Regional impacts and vulnerability

Transcription

1 EIONET/EPA networks Workshop on climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation EEA, november 2007 Regional impacts and vulnerability The Mediterranean (Italy) Franco Desiato, Domenico Gaudioso, Francesca Giordano APAT Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici

2 Primary impacts indicators (temperature, precipitation,..) Medium to long term forecasted change (i.e versus ) of mean temperature, cumulated precipitation, ) From high-resolution global or regional AOGCM models.

3 Temperature change - Southern Europe: (observed); (A1B scenario, 11 models)

4 Cumulated Precipitation change - 21 models ensemble versus Scenario A1B DJF JJA %

5 Uncertainty by prediction models Precipitation anomaly (mm) Northern Italy - Winter

6 ..Primary impacts indicators (temperature, precipitation,.. Medium to long term forecasted change BUT ALSO : Current trends estimate from observations time series IS NEEDED FOR: the knowledge of past/current impacts of climate change the continuous, in-progress verification of AOGCM forecasts the downscaling: impacts and vulnerability estimates are needed at the local scale

7 Trend estimates from observations time series Require time series homogenization: C hom original year WMO WG on Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases; COST Action ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach

8 Mean temperature anomaly over Italy Italy: ΔT = C ΔT = C Global: ΔT +0.7 C

9 Cumulated precipitation anomaly Northern Italy Central Italy Southern Italy

10 Primary impacts EXTREMES indicators Example: Set of indicators form the WMO CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Change Detection: Frost days Summer days Tropical nights Cold days, cold nights Warm days, warm nights Maximum absolute temperature Minimum absolute temperature

11 Tropical nights - Italy Δ = +12,5 days/year Δ = +21 days/year

12 From the GREEN PAPER 4 out of the 6 most vulnerable areas in Europe concern Southern Europe and/or the Mediterranean: Southern Europe and the entire Mediterranean Basin due to the combined effect of high temperature increases and reduced precipitation in areas already coping with water scarcity Mountain areas, in particular the Alps, where temperatures increase rapidly leading to widespread melting of snow and ice changing river flows Coastal zones due to sea level rise combined with increased risks for storms. Densely populated floodplains due to increased risks for storms, intense rainfall and flash floods leading to widespread damages to builtup areas and infrastructure.

13 Areas of potential vulnerability to climate change in Italy Sensitivity to desertification 1% Very low 63% Low 33% Medium 3% High Areas at high risk: Pianura Padano-Veneta, Versilia, Fondi and Pontina plains. 1500km out of 8000km at risk of erosion and flooding Hydro-geological risk Flooding risk DISMED Project Desertification degradation of land in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas. It is caused primarily by human activities and climatic variations (UNCCD). Areas at high risk: Sardinia, Sicily, Puglia, Basilicata Areas at high risk: 9,8% of the Italian territory -4,1% floods -5,2% landslides -0,5% avalanches

14 Systems/Sectors of critical impacts for Italy MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS WATER RESOURCES BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS AGRICULTURE TOURISM

15 MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS Some example of indicators: Sea level: unchanged CURRENT SITUATION Area experiencing erosion and at flooding risk: km of low-lying coasts Coastal plains at risk: 33 Italian coastal plains Sea level rise of the Mediterranean Sea up to 38 cm by 2100 Area at flooding risk: km 2 FUTURE SCENARIOS North: 25,4%; Centre: 5,4%; South: 62,6%; Sardinia: 6,6%

16 WATER RESOURCES Some example of indicators: CURRENT SITUATION Glaciers: current glacier retreat in the Alps (-51% km 2 during the last 150 years) Snow cover: reduction of length/quantity of snow Since 1990 anticipation of spring melt period of 15 days at 2500 m Po River flow: 391 m 3 /s (July 2007); historical average value m 3 /s FUTURE SCENARIOS Glaciers: glacier retreat between 30% and 70% by 2100 loss of glaciers below 3500 m by 2050 Snow cover: decrease of snow cover duration (several weeks/each C increase) Drought events frequency: increase from 1/100 years to 1/50 years or less by 2070 Reduction of alpine rivers flow: up to 80% during the summer period by 2070

17 BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS Some example of indicators: CURRENT SITUATION Forest area: 10,5 M ha (2005) = 35% national territory > increasing Plant species distribution: shift at higher altitudes during the 20 th century (0,5 4 m/decade) Plant phenology: mean anticipation of phenological phases (3days/decade) FUTURE SCENARIOS Plant species distribution: shift of tree line in alpine areas (100 m) - 62% of mountain plant species by 2080 (A1 scenario) Coastal wetlands: - 20% by 2080 (SRES scenarios)

18 ITALY Outputs from the National Conference on Climate Change From the Italian National Conference on Climate Change and from preparatory workshops, several indications emerge for the priority actions to be undertaken by the Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea. By 2008 the Italian Ministry of the Environment, Land and Sea commits to drafting a national sustainable adaptation and land protection strategy. Two important outcomes of the conference: - The CLIMATE MANIFESTO - The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION

19 ITALY Outputs from the National Conference on Climate Change The CLIMATE MANIFESTO points out the following needs: - development of climate change mitigation policies - coordination of mitigation measures with adaptation measures - definition of a National Adaptation Plan to Climate Change - promotion of measures to assist developing countries - monitoring of progress at regular intervals through the National Conference on CC The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION concern: - research and knowledge work - extreme events - energy savings - marine resources - new models of consumption - tourism - water resources - health - agriculture - meteo-climatic early warning - coasts - public awareness - environmental incentives for labour and enterprises

20 SPAIN National Plan for the adaptation to climate change 2004: previous step, ECCE project A preliminary general assessment of the impacts in Spain due to the effects of climate change : presentation at National Climate Council, Coordination Commission for Policies on Climate Change, Sectoral Conference of Environment : public consultation : formal approval at CCPCC Every 4 years Every 4 years: monitoring and assessment Report of the National Plan of adaptation to climate change, that will guide further developments

21 FRANCE National Strategy for the adaptation to climate change The French National Strategy for the adaptation to climate change has been drafted by the National Observatory for the Effects of Global Warming. It represents an intermediate step between the scientific outputs and the drafting of an action plan. November 2006: approval by the Inter-Ministry Committee for Sustainable Development Four objectives: - to assure safety and public health - to limit the increase of inequalities in front of the risk - to limit the costs through preventive measures - to preserve the natural heritage

22 PORTUGAL The SIAM Project (Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures) AIM: to carry out the first integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change in the country. The work focuses on a core set of socio-economic and biophysical impacts, and is based upon scenarios of future climate produced by climate models. Impacts on specific sectors: fisheries, forestry and biodiversity, human health, water resources, agriculture, coastal zones, and energy SIAM II SIAM II: application of the general methodology of project SIAM at a smaller geographic scale in order to provide responses to decision makers in the public sector.