Exchange Circle on Flood Forecasting (EXCIFF) European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

Transcription

1 European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 1 European knowledge exchange on flood forecasting: Exchange Circle on Flood Forecasting (EXCIFF) European Flood Alert System (EFAS) Ad de Roo (EC-JRC)

2 Exchange of flood forecasting experiences in Europe European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 2 Bilateral contacts International water commissions (e.g. Rhine, Elbe/ICPER, Oder, Danube/ICPDR) WMO RA VI (Europe) Working Group Hydrology, Flood Forecasting ERA-NET CRUE (research) 2003 >> present: EFAS (European Flood Alert System) Nov : EXCIFF (Exchange Circle on Flood forecasting)

3 EXCIFF history European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 3 Initiated in Nov 2004 by France & JRC set up a European scale specific interest group of operational national or international forecasting centres or agencies (including both meteorological and hydrological aspects) Proposed to Water Directors meeting Launched in Dec st of the exchange circles dedicated to flood management topics Part of the initiative of the European Commission for an Action programme on flood management Action 1: improving the exchange of information Co-chaired by France & JRC: Frédérique Martini (France, MEDD) Ad de Roo (EC, DG JRC)

4 EXCIFF: aims European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 4 Facilitate a platform to exchange practical experience in operational flood forecasting, driven by a need for exchange of information, approaches and technical knowledge between European countries complimentary to DG RTD initiatives such as ACTIF Review state-of-play of flood forecasting in Europe Feedback forum of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) Identify needs and gaps Identify the most important fields to work on in order to improve our know-how Propose common concrete actions

5 EXCIFF: membership European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 5 22 Members states or Agencies 31 operational centres or organisations (hydrological, meteorological) 43 focal points

6 EXCIFF activities European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 6 Jan 2005: Questionnaire of information collection Feb st workshop (Toulouse) Synthesis report & CD Apr st newsletter Nov nd newsletter Jan nd workshop (Ispra)» Flood forecasting of plain floods (EFAS+HU)» Flood forecasting of flash floods (FR)» Flood forecasting of coastal floods (NL) Feb 2006 Establishment of EXCIFF website Apr rd newsletter Mrc-Nov 2006 several sessions GP report Apr 2007 inventory for future actions meeting May 2007 publication of GP report

7 EXCIFF: achievements European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 7 Action 6C - Implement a EXCIFF Internet site/portal facilitate exchange between FF actors Established at JRC in summer 2006 Action 5C - Work on flood forecasting information for the general public Aim: write a guide of «good practice for flood-related information to the general public Established by Drafting team with members from: DE, SE, FI, FR, IT, NL, UK, published May 2007 Action 3C - Organise exchange of methods between EXCIFF countries on flood forecasting (modelling / experience / organisation) Workshop Jan 2006

8 Guide printed European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 8 May 2007 Available: EXCIFF website: ad.de-roo@jrc.it

9 European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 9

10 EXCIFF: way forward European Flood Alert System (EFAS) : WG-F Floods Directive: shift from exchange circles to dedicated workshops EFAS already organises such workshops, as is WMO-hydro FF group -> EXCIFF put on hold Remaining ideas: Organise collective training for flood forecasters Specific catchment behaviour the modelling and forecasting process Explore hydrological data quality standard and hydrological data exchange standard Express to the meteorological community a need for agreement between hydrological and meteorological communities concerning (cross-border) use and exchange of meteorological data practical experiences with probabilistic forecasting and its dissemination (including experiences with the European Flood Alert System, EFAS) possibilities for improved flash flood forecasting regular information exchange of flood forecasting services training of flood forecasters (continuous and self training) how will the job of a flood forecasters look like in 5 or 10 years? possibilities and needs for improved plain flood forecasting future research needs in flood forecasting frequent presentations and information exchange on European and national research projects with practical applications in flood forecasting (link to ERANET CRUE??)

11 EFAS: European Flood Alert System European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 11 Focus: Transboundary river systems Forecasts beyond 48 hours (early warning) Probabilistic approach Complimentary to NHS systems Dissemination: National and Regional Hydrological Services (NHS) Responsible for national flood warning and triggering Civil Protection EFAS is used here to alert competent staff of NHS MIC (simplified info on extreme floods only) Preparation of aid operations Only in case of extreme disasters where MS request assistance EFAS can be used here to make first preparations of aid operations, to be able to respond faster to MS requests during the crisis

12 /23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/020:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague /23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 0Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague 8/23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 12 Hydro & Meteo Data EU Flood GIS Realtime H-Q data European Flood Alert System LISFLOOD hydrological model Flood Simulations Historical Data Static Data Europ. Data Layers Meteo - Data Expert Knowledge Expert Knowledge of of Member Member States States Currently 25 National Organisations informed EFAS EFAS online online website website

13 European Flood Alert System (EFAS) Complementing Member States European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 13 extend warning time > 3 days by using multiple weather forecasts including weather ensembles (EPS): 1 ECMWF deterministic 15days 51 ECMWF ensembles 15 days 1 DWD deterministic 7 days 15 COSMO-LEPS ensembles 5 days forecasting for entire river basins and the whole of Europe information exchange platform for operational services: Training on new methodologies Q in m 3 /s EFAS Severe threshold EFAS High threshold EFAS medium threshold 2006 spring floods in the Elbe, Station Dresden 4th Apr Days starting at 15th March 2006

14 EFAS: training & feedback European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 14 General framework (1/2) Forecasting System aims set up & development model strengths and limitations Forecasts Visualization Probabilistic results Users needs local interpretation decision making

15 EFAS An on-line system that gives an overview where floods are predicted in the next days. Accessible 24/7 European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 15

16 EFAS on-line interface European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 16 Poland Users can zoom into the area of interest where floods are predicted Ukraine Czech Rep. Example: Hungary-Romania border Slovakia Austria Hungary Slovenia Croatia Romania Bulgaria

17 EFAS online European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 17 Users can click on a location of interest, to see for which day the flood is predicted and how severe it might be In this example, forecast made on 25 February, a small flood is predicted for 2/3 March

18 European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 18 August 2005 flood, CH/AT/DE

19 Days when flooding was going on Prague: March 2006 flood European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 19

20 >> DG-ENV MIC: EFAS based simplified early flood warnings European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 20 Dark red dots: Flood forecasted for 3-5 days from now Light red dots: Flood forecasted for 6-8 days from now Grey dots: Flood forecasted for 9+ days from now Links to National Websites & Authorities will be provided 5 : Prut: flood predicted for the river Prut in country Romania. Flood predicted to start D+6: Date of forecast: :00 National point of contact: Mr/Mrs XXX xxx@rowater.ro

21 >> DG ENV-MIC & public: Ongoing floods overview European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 21 Sources: Red dots (actual measurements): ETN-R realtime river data (with GRDC, Koblenz) Webscraping (JRC) Grey dots: EFAS estimations (JRC) Links to National Websites & Authorities will be provided 5 : Naab: flood ongoing in river Naab, Danube, upper basin in country Germany. Last observed waterlevel exceeds National Alert Level 2. Date of last observation: T09:00:00+01:00 National website:

22 EFAS performance European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 22 EFAS alerts in 70-80% of the cases correct more or less right place, time, and magnitude False alerts are less harmful in this time-range Are even appreciated by national staff (if not too frequent): Help national staff to be alerted Are without costs (contrary to public alerts, evacuation etc.) Obviously, false alerts should be avoided as much as possible Consistency & Persistency criterium in EFAS

23 The Way Forward European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 23 Today EFAS is in a research pre-operational phase. It is planned to be officially operational by ~2011 (GMES, DG ENV, JRC?) Currently, a number of countries have shown interest in running an operational EFAS: SMHI (SE) SMHU (SK) Waterdienst (RIZA) (NL) APAT (IT) ECMWF JRC EFAS will be run at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) until then; JRC has also interest in running it operationally itself EFAS is already part of the ICPDR Danube Flood Action Plan, as one of the measures implemented; also linked to the Elbe-IKSE Action Plan EFAS might be part of other Flood Action Plans, made in the framework of the EU Flood Directive EFAS public info and all sorts of European Flood information can be found on the JRC Floods portal

24 European Flood Alert System (EFAS) 24 Thank you! (