Technology Briefs Further country engagement and overview of transport sector briefs IRENA Innovation Day: The age of renewable energy Abu Dhabi, UAE 26 May 2016
IRENA Technology Brief series Aim: Provide a concise summary for policy-makers on the current status of various renewable energy technologies Structure of the briefs: Process and Technology status Performance and Capacity Costs Potentials and Barriers Amongst Top-3 most downloaded IRENA publications 2
Technology briefs cover a wide range of technologies and applications Status: 21 published and 6 on-going Application / Technology Power Heat & cooling Buildings Transport Industry Other applications Bioenergy Biomass cofiring Biomass heat and power Hydro Hydropower Wood pellets Bio-digesters for cooking Liquid biofuels Biogas for transport Biofuels for aviation Bio-methanol Bio-ethylene Biomass logistics Solar PV CSP Solar thermal for buildings Solar thermal for Industries Wind Wind power Geothermal Geothermal power District heating Ocean Salinity gradient Wave energy Tidal energy OTEC SWAC Enabling Electricity storage RE grid integration Thermal storage Heat pumps RE for shipping Electric vehicles Desalination for water using RE 3
Questions for discussion during this session How do you see the future evolvement of IRENA technology briefs? Which other technology areas, application and sectors should IRENA prepare technology briefs for? How often should the technology briefs be updated? Is the existing structure of the technology briefs appropriate, should it be adjusted? How can we engage your national institutes, experts in the field in preparation of the briefs? 4
Biogas for transport
Biogas for transport: Process and technology status 6
Biogas for transport: Performance and capacity Biogas for transportation 0.42% of the total global production & 1% in EU Depending on feedstock type between 50-80% GHG emission reductions 2030 biogas supply 3-6 EJ can be available for transport, 2-5% of global transport energy demand 7
Biogas for transport: Costs CNG price in Germany 8
Biogas for transport: Potential and barriers Potential Several EU countries have already set targets and included biomethane in their plans In countries with large availability of energy crops and residues, large potential exists Countries with natural gas for transport infrastructure (e.g. Colombia) Potential is relevant for a number of applications with limited RE use, notably trucks Barriers Competition of feedstocks for various end-uses, and the need for residue collection infrastructure at economy of scale Infrastructure required for the transport system Has other cost-competitive applications before transport fuel 9
Biofuels for aviation
Biofuels for aviation: Process and technology status Need for specialised fuels that meet strict specifications (ASTM) Fully functional with infrastructure and close to ~0% O 2 3 technologies have been certified (FT, 2009 ; HEFA, 2011 main route today ; SIP, 2014) Main routes for production Oleochemical conversion processes (vast majority of production) Thermochemical route (1: Fast pyrolysis ; 2: Gasification Biochemical routes OH OH H O H H OH H HO OH H OH - O 2 H H H H H O H H H C C C C H OH H H H H H HO OH Carbohydrate Hydrocarbon Petroleum-like biofuel H OH 11
Biofuels for aviation: Performance and capacity Today jet fuel demand 311 bln liters/year 2-3%/year growth in demand Biojet fuel share insignificant (<0.05%) Aggregation of current targets aspirational (US, EU, Indonesia) ~ 10 bln liters by 2020 (but unlikely to be achieved) Plenty of initiatives for production, R&D are plenty 12
Biofuels for aviation: Costs, potential and barriers Clear climate goals in the sector Carbon neutral by 2020 50% emission reduction by 2050 compared to 2005 levels Costs are at least 2-4 times higher than fossil fuel equivalent (in Feb 2016, fossil fuel-based jet fuel cost USD 340/tonne) In the EU, up to USD ~1,650/tonne premium may be required Approaches at both international and national levels needed Costs (continued belief that costs will be significantly higher than fossil-based jet fuels) Lack of mandates to create demand, but private initiatives exist How to cross the valley of death Need for focus at the entire supply chain drop-in fuels is the first option 13
Electric vehicles
Electric vehicles: Process and technology status Thousands 500 400 300 200 100 Country Est. total EVs EV sales EV share in Total LDV (Feb 2016) (2015) market (2015) market 1 USA <415,000 >115,000 0.6% 17,500,000 California >189,000 >62,000 3.1% 2,100,000 2 China 300,000 207,000 0.8% 22,000,000 BEV sales 3 Japan PHEV sales 150,000 25,000 >1.0% 4,200,000 4 Netherland 91,000 43,000 9.6% 420,000 5 Norway 90,000 34,000 >20% 170,000 6 France >70,000 27,000 1.5% 2,000,000 7 Germany >50,000 24,000 0.75% 3,500,000 8 UK >38,000 >28,000 >1.0% 2,700,000 Europe >193,000 World >1,100,000 >450,000 0.5% 88,000,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 15
Electric vehicles: Performance and capacity Battery Driving Range (km) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Battery capacity (kwh) PHEV BEV 16
Electric vehicles: Performance and capacity Vehicle CO2 emissions g/km 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 BEV, more efficient BEV, modest efficiency 800 600 400 200 0 Power plant CO2 emissions, g/kwh Efficient ICE LDV, 2014 Best ICE, 2016 Best ICE, 2030? BEV modest (0.25 kwh/km) BEV efficient (0.15 kwh/km) 17
Electric vehicles: Costs A plausible PEV rollout scenario based on technology change, incentives & history of previous technology rollouts This sales curve would be similar to the rollout of HEVs in Japan & California, 1997-2015 1 st generation early policy, converted vehicles, innovators & early infrastructure 2010 2015 1-2% 2 nd generation improved batteries, more driving range, followers Adequate infrastructure 2020 3-5% of market 3 rd generation: batteries, vehicles, core market PEVs competitive 2025 Early core market: 6-15% 700 300 200 150 Lithium pack prices per kwh 4 th generation: PEVs begin to dominate 2030 California 2025 ZEV goal = 15% / 1.5 million BEVS, FCV & PHEVs Main market 15-25% 18
Electric vehicles: Potential and barriers Potential Can represent around 10% of the total vehicle fleet by 2030 Potential including 2/3 wheelers and modal shift, in SE Asia, LAC, Africa Significant air pollution benefits (urban context), reduced congestion, less noise pollution, and power/transport sector coupling Barriers Costs are still too high Batteries for fast charging, and long distance travels needed Infrastructure costs are high (e.g. railways 10x more then road) Material constraints (e.g. lithium), realizing 10% share in total vehicle fleet will require 200-600 kt/yr lithium carbonate equivalent (twice the total production of lithium for all applications 19
Thank you!