Renewable Heat Market Developments

Transcription

1 Renewable Heat Market Developments Anselm Eisentraut Bioenergy Analyst IEA Paris 9 April 214 OECD/IEA 214

2 What is heat?

3 Heat within the energy system Buildings sector - Cooking - Water heating - Space heating Industry sector - Process applications (pulp & paper, steel production) Renewable heat - biomass (including biogas and liquid biofuels) - solar thermal heat - geothermal heat - heat pumps using a renewable source Hochofen-sichert-48-deutsche-Jobs.html

4 Total primary energy supply, EJ 17.9 Power generation, TWh 364 4, EJ 79.7 EJ Power, CHP & Heat plants 4,852 2, ,58 9, EJ Secondary energy products Non-Energy Use Direct use for heat 42.8 EJ Transport 12.4 EJ Losses during transformation Losses during transmission 3 & distribution energy industry own 2 use Natural Industry Gas Oil Coal Buildings Other Sectors Other* Other Renewables Bioenergy Buildings Buildings Natural Gas Oil Coal Legend ther Sectors Total Final Energy use for Heat, EJ Industry 78.8 EJ Industry Buildings 83.7 EJ Industry Buildings Other Sectors Other sectors 9. EJ Electricity 65.1 EJ Source: IEA (214) Other Sectors Heating Without Global Industry Warming

5 Heat accounts for more than half of world s total final energy consumption today World total final energy consumption, 211 (322 EJ) 2.8% 25.9% 2.2% 24.4% 26.7% Electricity Transport Industry Buildings Other sectors Source: IEA Statistics

6 Fossil fuels dominate the heat sector in most regions

7 Global heat consumption by region in various sectors, 29

8 Renewable energy use for heat in buildings EJ % 8% 6% 4% 2% % Solar thermal Geothermal Biogas Liquid biofuels Solid Biomass (OECD) Solid Biomass (non-oecd) RES share in total FEH in buildings (OECD) RES share in total FEH in buildings (non-oecd) Renewable energy accounts for 43% of final energy use for heat in buildings Main share is traditional use of biomass in developing countries

9 Biomass is the most important renewable energy source for heat in the buildings sector EJ OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe excl Estonia/Slovenia before 199 Africa Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia China Non-OECD Europe Middle East

10 Supply chain development is key for enhanced use of bioenergy for heat Development of annual sales of wood pellet boiler and price of premium pellets in Austria, 2-12 Data source: propellets Austria (213),

11 Renewable energy use for heat in industry EJ Solar thermal Geothermal Biogas Liquid biofuels Solid biomass Renewable energy accounts for only 1% of industrial energy use for heat 99% of this is bioenergy

12 Bioenergy use for heat limited to a few sub-sectors

13 Bioenergy a competitive source of heat in many circumstances

14 Solar thermal energy can provide heat for a range of applications Source: ESTTP (213), Strategic Research Priorities for Solar Thermal Technology

15 Solar thermal heat use in buildings grows rapidly China became world leader within one decade, thanks to low-cost, costcompetitive solar water heaters Growth in Europe driven by EU 22 targets for renewable energy Mainly hot water, but increasingly combi-systems for hot water and space heating

16 Solar thermal heat is becoming competitive, in an increasing number of countries Electricity heating Gas heating Solar district heating (central Europe) Solar large-scale system (southern US) Industrial process heat (south & central Europe) Hot water & space heating system (central & northern Europe) Solar hot water pumped (central & northern Europe) Solar hot water thermosiphon (southern Europe) Solar hot water, thermosiphon (China) Source: IEA (214), Heating Without Global Warming USD/MWh th

17 Collector production cost development Index Total installed collector capacity in GWth Support policies drive cost reductions 2% 195% 1 18% 16% 156% 8 14% 12% 125% 6 1% 1% 12 8% 76% 4 6% 57% 49 4% 2 2% % Total installed capacity EU27 (right axis, in GWth, prediction = bright) Relative collector production costs, 21 = 1% (left axis, prediction = dashed)

18 Geothermal heat Geothermal energy potential is geographically limited Can be used directly, e.g. for pool heating, district heating Indirectly through heat exchanger Source: Enhanced geothermal systems can allow for access of geothermal energy virtually anywhere Currently developed for power generation Source: Climatepedia

19 Geothermal heat in buildings growing from a solid basis China now fastest growing market for geothermal heat, but OECD Europe also continues to expand Drilling risks (related to seismicity) have prevented projects in the last years

20 Geothermal heat cost-competitive in favorable circumstances Buildings electricity heating (Europe) Buildings gas heating (Europe) Geothermal (greenhouses) Geothermal district heating USD/MWh th

21 Heat pumps for heating and cooling Heat source Heat pump Heating system Heat pumps are gaining momentum to provide both heat and cold in buildings Global heat pump capacity doubled between GW th installed generated around.3 EJ of heat in 211

22 Heat pump efficiencies Ground-source heat pumps typically offer the best heat to electricity ratio

23 The heat pump market is growing quickly Source: Eurobserver, Heat Pumps Barometer

24 District heating networks offer opportunities for enhanced use of waste heat District heating networks distribute heat to consumers via extensive networks of insulated pipes water temperature in networks typically 9-12 C

25 Examples of renewable district heating Sweden leader in biomass district heating Denmark largest solar thermal heating plant to date Iceland geothermal district heating well established

26 Renewable energy already plays a considerable role in district heating

27 Heat storage enables enhanced use of renewable heat Heat can be stored to balance daily and seasonal variability Water storage common for households, as well as for district heating Heat storage is particularly relevant for solar thermal heat, because of daily and seasonal variations Photo sources: Solartronics; Solvis;ZAE

28 District cooling networks expanding Cooling demand is growing worldwide considerable potential for use of renewable energy Renewable cooling can be provided through: Direct cooling with snow/water Evaporative cooling Heat pumps (in reverse mode) Heat-driven sorption cooling (similar to heat pump) Use of renewable heat from solar, geothermal or biomass Use of waste heat from co-generation plants

29 Cooling demand is set to rise Cooling demand will rise rapidly in regions where urbanization is expanding and incomes are rising

30 Policy deployment journey for heat Additional policy principles for renewable heat arise in the Inception and Take-off phases

31 4 countries worldwide have renewable heat policies in place For details visit IEA/IRENA Joint Renewable Energy Policy and Measures Database, Only 4 countries have policies for renewable heat; more than 11 have policies for renewable electricity in place

32 Policies to accelerate deployment RES-heat Carbon tax on fossil fuels used in heat production: Sweden Source: Lund University

33 Renewable Heat Obligations Courtesy: Anselm Eisentraut Germany: RES-H obligations in new building development (3% RES-H in new buildings) Israel, China: Solar hot water obligations Suitable instrument when technologies are at an advanced stage of maturity

34 Financial incentives India: loan program for solar water heating US: tax credits for renewable heating equipment Austria, Germany: Investment subsidies for new purchased equipment Only for certified equipment UK: Renewable Heat Incentive (like feed-in tariff) for both domestic and commercial consumers Source:

35 Non-economic barriers need to be tackled Awareness-raising campaigns are relatively low-cost measure to inform consumers and trigger uptake of renewable heating technologies Transparent cost-information is key Reliable supply chains are crucial to enable market growth Certified installers and service network

36 Conclusions Heat dominates final energy use: expanding renewable heat is important to reduce emissions and enhance energy security Despite significant potential, shares of modern renewable heat are still small, with exception of a few countries Apart from common barriers to renewable energy, deployment of renewable heat has additional barriers Heterogeneity of heat market asks for custom-made policies per target group (industry different from private households etc) Potential for renewable cooling still largely unexploited

37 IEA publications on renewable heat Renewables for Heating & Cooling (27) Technology roadmaps (211-12) Bioenergy for Heat and Power Geothermal Heat and Power Solar Heating and Cooling Energy Technology Perspectives 212 Chapter on heating & cooling Policies for renewable heat (212) Renewable Heating Without Global Warming (Mid-April 214)

38 Thank you for your attention! Source: